Stock Watch for Novak Djokovic's Biggest Challengers at 2016 French Open
Novak Djokovic has been the bridesmaid at Roland Garros, but he is now the strong favorite to finally lift the Musketeers Cup at the 2016 French Open. The world No. 1 will be bidding for all kinds of history, including his “Djoker Slam” and the chance to become the first player since 1992 to win the year’s first two majors.
Last year, Djokovic swept aside the longtime King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, in the quarterfinals. He opened up his own path to the title, but somebody forgot to give the memo to Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss executed the match of his life and was the one to hold up tennis’ Holy Grail.
Will Nadal and Wawrinka again thwart Djokovic?
The following stock watch ranks Djokovic’s top contenders for the moment. How are they trending in tournaments that lead up to the French Open? What are their capabilities on clay?
This is the first of our monthly updates as the ATP heads into the important Masters 1000 and European clay-court tournaments.
5. Rafael Nadal
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Stock: Down. It’s no secret that Nadal is no longer the invincible King of Clay. Last week in Argentina, he was upended in the semifinals by Dominic Thiem, and he was the one deficient in both his offensive power and defensive retrievals.
This week Nadal tries to rebound in Brazil, but he will have to elevate his game and fight to slowly rebuild a sense of dominance heading to Indian Wells, Miami and Europe.
Pre-French Open outlook: Nadal can never be counted out on clay. He still has fluid mechanics on that surface and all the experience needed to peak for Roland Garros. What he needs are fresher legs, a bigger forehand and a lot of depth on his shots. Then the confidence will follow.
He’s capable of getting on a roll and vanquishing other top-10 players, but he’s also been vulnerable to the likes of Fabio Fognini, Fernando Verdasco and Thiem. Right now, it’s not realistic to talk about him defeating Djokovic, so in the meantime he has his work cut out to leap past the other contenders in this countdown.
4. Dominic Thiem
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Stock: Rising fast. We give Dominic Thiem the nod over Nadal for defeating him at Argentina and then holding on for the title against a hot Nicolas Almagro. He’s trending as a top-20 player, only a couple hundred points from cracking the top 15. Better pay attention.
Pre-French Open outlook: Thiem is a strong kid who was one of the top winners on clay in 2015, capped by three mid-majors and impressive resolve. He’s a big hitter in the mold of Wawrinka, but he has more athleticism to go with his endurance and powerful shotmaking. He hits a heavy ball with sidespin to either side, and he’s a strong server.
Thiem’s also a hungry competitor with growing belief, and that makes him dangerous to think past the pressures and play through the moments. He’s relentless.
Although he has yet to win a Masters 1000 tournament or scalp elite players in big matches, he could be the dark horse at Roland Garros. He certainly overpowered Nadal's second serve, taking 23 of those 38 points.
Thiem has a lot to prove, but he’s one to watch on clay.
3. Kei Nishikori
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Stock: Steady. This is becoming the best time of the year for Kei Nishikori. After bagging his fourth consecutive title at the Memphis Open, the Japanese star has demonstrated once again that his defensive reflexes and early ball-striking will make him a formidable threat on clay.
Pre-French Open outlook: Nishikori has also won the Barcelona Open the past two years, breaking the Spanish stranglehold on that tournament. The real test will be winning a Masters 1000 tournament like Monte Carlo or Rome. Madrid might be his best bet, because there’s a good chance Djokovic will skip it to rest for Rome and Roland Garros. (Djokovic has not played in Madrid since 2013.)
He’s one of the premier defenders on tour, and he can erase his opponents great shots and force them into a neutral or losing position. He loves to get opponents off balance and strike the ball early into the corner or off the court.
One thing Nishikori needs is to upgrade his performance in big matches against the likes of Wawrinka and Andy Murray. Last year, they blasted through him at Melbourne and Madrid, respectively. Nishikori did handle Nadal in Canada, so he also gets the latest nod over the Spanish champion.
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2. Andy Murray
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Stock: Steady. Andy Murray is taking time off with his family, and it could be a great way to recharge for a huge spring. With Roger Federer temporarily sidelined, Murray is the most consistent player outside of his world-beating rival Djokovic.
Pre-French Open outlook: Spring 2015, Murray had his breakthrough on clay, winning two titles and the Madrid final over Nadal. He also took Djokovic to five sets in the Roland Garros semifinals. Head-to-head, he hammered Nishikori at Madrid and Canada 24 games to 10.
Murray will need to guard against too much gruelling tennis from Indian Wells through Rome. Traditionally, this was less of a priority to him than Wimbledon, but he could very well be more invested on clay.
Although he’s proved durable, it might be better if Murray has a couple of quick exits to keep him chomping at the bit. He will need fresh legs if he is to do damage in May and early June.
1. Stan Wawrinka
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Stock: Down. Stan Wawrinka looked like he was depleted in his Australian Open loss to Milos Raonic, and now he returns to action at Marseille as the top seed. We never know exactly what we are getting with Wawrinka, but he’s still the most dangerous player to Djokovic, especially on slower surfaces like Melbourne and clay.
Pre-French Open outlook: He should play much better this spring than he did in 2015 when he unraveled between Melbourne and Paris. Of course if Wawrinka’s master plan was coming in and winning the French Open after a poor spring, well, it’s a little hard to figure if momentum is really that important to Wawrinka.
The hard part is for him to keep his hunger and head while going through the more routine parts to his draws. Can he go deep for another Monte Carlo title, or can he challenge at Rome and defend his epic win at Roland Garros?
Regardless, it’s going to take another lightning storm if he is to meet and defeat Djokovic in another great final. It’s a long road to Paris, but for now Wawrinka deserves his second billing to the great Djokovic.
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