If Records Weren't Everything, How Would NBA Playoff Bracket Look?
What if the NBA's playoff bracket evolved past wins and losses?
The league has already modernized postseason seeding by eliminating incentives for division winners. It has also entertained the idea of doing away with conferences altogether and awarding playoff slots to the 16 best records.
But we're going a step further, journeying beyond the win columns into an imaginary world where the Association's playoff race is more nuanced. To do this, we'll be using net rating and Basketball-Reference.com's Simple Rating System (SRS), which ranks teams by cumulatively measuring point differential and strength of schedule.
The idea here is to see how much different the NBA's playoff bracket would look if shaped using alternative means.
Eastern Conference
For reference, here's how the Eastern Conference's playoff picture would shake out if the postseason tipped off immediately after the All-Star break:
| (1) Cleveland Cavaliers | (8) Charlotte Hornets |
| (2) Toronto Raptors | (7) Chicago Bulls |
| (3) Boston Celtics | (6) Indiana Pacers |
| (4) Atlanta Hawks | (5) Miami Heat |
Net Rating/SRS Bracket
Adjusted-Round Matchups:
| (1) Cleveland Cavaliers | (8) Miami Heat |
| (2) Toronto Raptors | (7) Detroit Pistons |
| (3) Boston Celtics | (6) Charlotte Hornets |
| (4) Atlanta Hawks | (5) Indiana Pacers |
New to the Party: Detroit Pistons
By record, the Detroit Pistons currently fall just short of making the playoffs. They trail the Charlotte Hornets by a half-game. But their net rating and SRS scores are good enough for a seventh-seeded berth that sets up a first-round date with the Toronto Raptors.
So Long, Farewell: Chicago Bulls
Injuries have hit the Chicago Bulls hard. Most recently, they lost Jimmy Butler for three to four weeks with a strained left knee. Only one game separates them from lottery territory, but their net rating ranks ninth in the East.
Biggest Incumbent Riser: Charlotte Hornets
Wins and losses put the Charlotte Hornets on the verge of missing the playoffs today. But net rating and SRS have them as the East's sixth-best team, guaranteeing them entry into the NBA's (hypothetical) spring formal. Plus, they go from facing the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round to matching up against the Boston Celtics—a much more winnable series.
Biggest Incumbent Faller: Miami Heat
This is fitting. The Miami Heat are the rare team with infinite, and unsettling, possibilities.
You could see them getting hot and, on the backs of Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, making a push to the Eastern Conference Finals. You could also see them missing the playoffs entirely—as they almost do here, dropping from fifth to eighth in the standings.
Best First-Round Matchup: (1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Miami Heat
Even if the numbers say otherwise, a Cavaliers-Heat matchup figures to be far closer than a Cavaliers-Hornets dance.
Miami is a tidy 3-3 against Cleveland since LeBron James left, and both teams, as of now, favor half-court offensive sets. The Heat are one Bosh, Goran Dragic or Wade hot streak away from making this a series.
Western Conference
Here's a look at the Western Conference's current playoff picture:
| (1) Golden State Warriors | (8) Utah Jazz |
| (2) San Antonio Spurs | (7) Portland Trail Blazers |
| (3) Oklahoma City Thunder | (6) Dallas Mavericks |
| (4) Los Angeles Clippers | (5) Memphis Grizzlies |
Net Rating/SRS Bracket
Adjusted First-Round Matchups:
| (1) San Antonio Spurs | (8) Memphis Grizzlies |
| (2) Golden State Warriors | (7) Dallas Mavericks |
| (3) Oklahoma City Thunder | (6) Portland Trail Blazers |
| (4) Los Angeles Clippers | (5) Utah Jazz |
New to the Party: First-Place San Antonio Spurs
It looks like the eight best Western Conference teams are making the playoffs after all, so we're left to honor the rise of the first-place San Antonio Spurs.
Indeed, it's the Golden State Warriors who are on pace for 75 or 76 victories. But the Spurs have a better net rating and SRS, in large part because they've won 24 games by 15 or more points—the third-most for a team in NBA history at this point of the season.
It's even more impressive when put into proper context. Per ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh:
Biggest Incumbent Riser: Utah Jazz
Surprised? You shouldn't be. A healthy Utah Jazz squad is a dangerous Utah Jazz squad.
As Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey pointed out:
That net rating would rank third in the league overall, behind only the Spurs and Warriors.
Biggest Incumbent Faller: Memphis Grizzlies
Sure, these metrics still have the Memphis Grizzlies grabbing a postseason slot. But they rank eighth in net rating and SRS, and Marc Gasol is out indefinitely with a broken right foot. And they're now matched up with the Spurs.
Opponents are outscoring Memphis by one point per 100 possessions, and yet the Grizzlies are still on pace to win 48 games.
Three other teams have finished with a net rating of minus-one since 1983-84, and they averaged 39 victories between them. So it's no wonder net rating and SRS drag the Grizzlies from fifth to eighth. They're lucky to remain in the playoff picture at all.
Best First-Round Matchup: (4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Utah Jazz
Rudy Gobert vs. DeAndre Jordan. Derrick Favors vs. Blake Griffin. Trey Burke vs. Chris Paul (sic).
This is what the people want to see.
Also, the Jazz are torching opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions since Favors returned from a back injury in late January. That mark would rank fourth in the league and most assuredly make for a worthy series against a presumably healthy Clippers contingent.
Goodbye, Conferences
Conference-less playoff brackets aren't yet a thing, and they may not become a thing anytime soon—if at all.
As NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said last June, per ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz: "I think ultimately where we came out is this notion of 1-through-16 seeding, while it seems attractive in many ways, because of the additional travel that will result, it just doesn't seem like a good idea at the moment."
Travel logistics aside, seeding teams Nos. 1 through 16 is a better way of ensuring the best squads get into the postseason. And here's what this year's playoff pool would look like if we removed conference designations:
| (1) Golden State Warriors | (16) Utah Jazz |
| (2) San Antonio Spurs | (15) Portland Trail Blazers |
| (3) Oklahoma City Thunder | (14) Charlotte Hornets |
| (4) Cleveland Cavaliers | (13) Chicago Bulls |
| (5) Toronto Raptors | (12) Dallas Mavericks |
| (6) Los Angeles Clippers | (11) Indiana Pacers |
| (7) Memphis Grizzlies | (10) Miami Heat |
| (8) Boston Celtics | (9) Atlanta Hawks |
Net Rating/SRS Bracket
Adjusted First-Round Matchups:
| (1) San Antonio Spurs | (16) Dallas Mavericks |
| (2) Golden State Warriors | (15) Chicago Bulls |
| (3) Oklahoma City Thunder | (14) Miami Heat |
| (4) Cleveland Cavaliers | (13) Portland Trail Blazers |
| (5) Toronto Raptors | (12) Detroit Pistons |
| (6) Boston Celtics | (11) Utah Jazz |
| (7) Los Angeles Clippers | (10) Charlotte Hornets |
| (8) Atlanta Hawks | (9) Indiana Pacers |
New to the Party: Detroit Pistons
There is no greater beneficiary of this exercise than the Pistons. This marks the second time they go from not making the playoffs to sneaking into the fracas. And yet again they pull the Raptors, against whom they're 0-2.
Outlier: Memphis Grizzlies
This is kind of crazy.
Straight wins and losses in a conference-less setting would not only give the Grizzlies a playoff berth, but they're within striking distance of home-court advantage in the first round. Switch to net rating and SRS logic, and they don't even make the 16-team cut, finishing 17th in both categories.
Biggest Incumbent Riser: Utah Jazz
Now this is how you dodge a bullet—or, in this case, a first-round sweep.
The Jazz have the NBA's 16th-best record, which would set up an opening-series battle with the Warriors. But their net rating (10th) and SRS (11th) standings vault them into 11th place, where they would meet the impressive-but-fallible Boston Celtics.
Biggest Incumbent Fallers: Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat
Meet the newest sacrificial lamb: the Dallas Mavericks. The advanced numbers are not kind to them. They go from challenging the good-bordering-on-great Raptors to first-round fodder for the legendary-bordering-on-unbeatable Spurs.
The Heat aren't much better off. They go from 10th place and a meeting against the short-handed Grizzlies to 14th place and a date with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Best First-Round Matchup: (6) Boston Celtics vs. (11) Utah Jazz
Utah is rolling since the return of Favors, and Boston is making mincemeat of the East's middle class. The Celtics, in fact, join the Warriors as the only two teams to rank in the top 10 of offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and pace.
There would be a low-key element of awesomeness in watching Jazz coach Quin Snyder wage clipboard war with Celtics head honcho Brad Stevens. Boston likes to force teams into mismatches with positionless lineups, while Utah predominantly deploys traditional frontcourt combinations that kill the pace and turn every game into methodical affairs.
May the most savvy sideline-wanderer win.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate leading into NBA's All-Star break unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
