Calling Fact or Fiction on Boxing's Top Rumors and Speculations
With weeks, and sometimes even months, between major prizefights, boxing fans are forced to spend much of their time feeding on rumor and speculation. In the absence of solid information, it's only natural to wonder what might be next for the likes of Floyd Mayweather Jr., Tyson Fury or Gennady Golovkin.
Prediction in the fight game is always a tricky thing. Picking a winner for a fight can be hard enough. Guessing how the business end will develop can be nearly impossible.
I have reasonable confidence in each call I'm making here. But in the end, I woudn't be shocked to get every single one wrong.
Julio Chavez Jr. to Challenge Badou Jack in April: Fact
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At middleweight, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. was a rough, yet effective, fighter. By managing to squeeze his way into the 160-pound division, the legend's son was able to use a big size advantage to impose a crude imitation of his father's classic style.
His WBC-title winning victory over Sebastian Zbik in June 2011 should have been a draw. But his 2012 wins over Marco Antonio Rubio and Andy Lee were impressive displays of physical endurance and ruggedness.
Since getting completely tooled by Sergio Martinez in September 2012, Chavez has managed to make the 168-pound, super middleweight limit just once in four fights. When he faced light heavyweight contender Andrzej Fonfara, at a 172-pound catchweight last April, his come-forward style got him brutalized.
Even at 168, Chavez isn't going to be big enough to succeed with his limited, bullying style. His record doesn't even warrant a title shot there, at this point.
That doesn't mean he won't get one. He's a famous name and did hold a world-title belt for over a year. And super middleweight is a division short on high-profile challengers.
On FightHype.Com's Youtube channel last week, Chavez's current trainer Robert Garcia said he expects his fighter to face WBC super middleweight champion Badou Jack in late April.
In boxing, I don't believe a fight is really going to happen until I see the press conference. And in the case of Chavez Jr., I still need to wait and see if he'll actually come in on weight.
But in this case, I do expect to see him face Badou Jack for the WBC belt this spring.
Juan Manuel Marguez Will Return to Face Miguel Cotto: Fiction
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A matchup between Juan Manuel Marquez and Miguel Cotto has been one of the most speculated-upon matchups of the year to date. On January 10, Cotto's Hall of Fame trainer Freddie Roach told BoxingScene.Com's Elsinio Castillo that he thought Marquez would be "perfect" for Cotto's next bout.
This one has a lot to recommend it. Mexico vs. Puerto Rico is the greatest rivalry in professional boxing, and Marquez and Cotto are the greatest fighters to emerge from both countries in this century. Nationalities aside, their styles would blend into an exciting mix.
Cotto is an intelligent pressure fighter who can counterpunch with aggression. Marquez is a brilliantly aggressive counterpuncher who is also outstanding at applying smart, tactical pressure. Both men are true ring generals.
Lee Cleveland's story on Fight Saga on February 13 makes a good argument for why this fight will happen. The fact that neither side has yet come out to deny the speculation is also telling.
Still, I don't believe this fight is going to happen. For one thing, there's the matter of contracting for an acceptable weight. The heaviest Marquez has ever weighed in for a bout is 144.5 pounds. Cotto has tipped the scales at close to 10 pounds heavier, in every bout he's had in the past half decade.
Beyond that, Marquez is now approaching two years of inactivity, at 42 years of age. Two years is an extremely long time for a professional fighter over 40.
In his last bout, in April 2014, Marquez won a one-sided decision over Mike Alvarado, but even then, had more trouble than he probably should have against such an opponent.
This would be a huge payday, so I won't be shocked if I'm wrong here. In fact, I'll be excited to see Marquez return.
But I'm not expecting it to happen.
Mikey Garcia to Return in 2016: Fact
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In the early years of this decade, Mikey Garcia was one of the fastest-rising stars in boxing. By 26, he was an undefeated, two-division world champion. His professional record stands at 34-0, with 28 KOs.
But it's now been over two years since Garcia's last fight, a near shutout of Juan Carlos Burgos in January 2014. A protracted legal dispute with his promoter, Top Rank, put the breaks on his career.
There's also reason to question just how much hunger Garcia has for this brutal sport. His trainer, and older brother, Robert, told ThaBoxingVoice.Com last month, "Mikey's not that fighter that really loves the sport, he does it because he's really good at it."
Still, in a story by BoxingScene.Com's Steve Kim last week, the older Garcia did say that he hopes to see his talented younger sibling return in the first half of 2016. It's important to note that even in this more recent story, Garcia's language is conditional: "if" rather than "when."
It's enough to get me to buy in, though. A return for Garcia now, at 28, makes complete sense. He'd likely return at 140 pounds, a division where major fights could be made with either Viktor Postol or Terence Crawford, although a deal to face Crawford would force him to do business once again with Top Rank.
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Gennady Golovkin Could Face Bernard Hopkins: Fiction
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Undefeated middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin has emerged as one of the hottest fighters in the sport over the past few years. At the same time, he's also been one of the most avoided.
Rather than defending the lineal and WBC middleweight crowns he won from Miguel Cotto last November against Golovkin, Canelo Alvarez has instead opted to face Amir Khan in his next bout, at a 155-pound catchweight, rather than the middleweight limit of 160.
Khan, it must be noted, has never fought above welterweight.
GGG vs. Canelo is the biggest fight that could be made right now, but with Alvarez's side still hesitating, Golovkin will instead return to action this April against his IBF-mandatory, Dominic Wade.
Meanwhile, speculation has arisen about Golovkin potentially facing the legendary Bernard Hopkins, a man who once ruled the middleweight division. In an interview last week with BoxingScene.Com, Golovkin's promoter, Tom Loeffler, confirmed that Hopkins has "expressed interest" in a fight with the undefeated Kazak at 168 pounds.
For his own part, Loeffler called Hopkins "an interesting fight" and "a great opponent for Gennady." But he also noted that "if there's a middleweight champion willing to fight him, it's going to be the priority."
For this reason, it's hard to believe Golovkin vs. Hopkins will happen. Loeffler has been consistently on message for years now that the primary goal for Golovkin is to make him a true, undisputed middleweight champion, in the same mold as Hopkins and Marvelous Marvin Hagler.
And I think after GGG takes care of Wade in April, WBO champion Billy Joe Saunders will prove game for a unification bout. Expect Golovkin to headline in England over the summer.
Deontay Wilder to Face Alexander Povetkin in May in NYC: Fact
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WBC heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder didn't exactly look like an all-time great in his January defense against Artur Szpilka. But he once more demonstrated that his punching power is entirely legitimate, and it can end even a struggling performance in a hurry.
And Wilder's work against Szpilka deserves more credit than it has gotten from some quarters. Szpilka is a rugged, intelligent brawler who came after Wilder with a solid game plan and stuck to it. Yet Wilder was still up on the cards at the time of his one-punch stoppage.
Wilder's next defense should be an even bigger challenge. On January 22, ESPN's Dan Rafael reported that the WBC had ordered negotiations for a showdown between Wilder and former challenger Alexander Povetkin.
Wilder has been fairly criticized for the quality of his opposition to date. Aside from Bermane Stiverne, who he beat by unanimous decision for the WBC belt, he hasn't faced a single top-10 talent. Povetkin is definitely top five.
I don't see any way for Wilder to avoid this date with destiny any longer, so I expect the fight to happen this year. It's either that or lose his belt and the respect of the fans.
In a story over the weekend by BoxingScene.Com's Jack Donavan, Wilder expressed total enthusiasm for the fight and a desire to have it take place in New York.
I'd make Povetkin the favorite, for certain. But Wilder's power and length will give him at least a shot.
Floyd Mayweather Will Face the Winner of Keith Thurman vs. Shawn Porter: Fiction
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Following his win over Andre Berto last September, Floyd Mayweather retired, with a perfect record of 49-0. But retirements in boxing have often been short lived. And with Mayweather just one victory short of 50 career wins, it's inevitable that there will be rumors and speculation about his return.
A February 14 story by Edward Chaykovsky on BoxingScene.Com quotes an interview with welterweight contender Shawn Porter, from On The Ropes Boxing Radio:
"I don't think Floyd Mayweather's retired. I've heard things about him coming back once more."
According to the interview, a likely next opponent for Mayweather is the winner of Porter's March 12 showdown with undefeated WBA champion Keith Thurman.
A fight between a returning Mayweather and the winner of Thurman and Porter would be compelling. But I don't see it happening.
Just this morning, an article by Carlos Boogs on BoxingScene.Com quoted Mayweather from a public appearance he made over the weekend in England. In his most recent public comments, Mayweather expressed no interest in returning and spoke only of the toll the sport had taken on his body throughout the years.
Mayweather managed to retire after two decades with a perfect record, having earned more money than any other fighter in history and with his health still solid. In his mind, he beat the boxing game.
Never say never when it comes to retirement in boxing. But I don't see Mayweather risking his career "victory," at least not as soon as this year.
Tyson Fury Will Soon Announce "Massive News": Fact, Sort of
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Tyson Fury's November victory over Wladimir Klitschko, to seize the heavyweight title, was a dreadfully boring affair, as prizefights go. Nevertheless, the ascent of the young English giant brought new excitement to boxing's premier division, which has needed it for years now.
Fury is also a brash, larger-than-life figure. He's got a certain crude and boastful charisma. Fans that aren't won over by him tend to hate him, and that's always good news when it comes to selling fights.
Fury was his usual, bombastic self Saturday night on Twitter, announcing big news:
"Some massive news coming soon, had to come to London for an urgent meeting about a massive fight,TBA very soon, u will not believe who!!!!!!
— Gypsy King (@Tyson_Fury) February 13, 2016
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As the heavyweight champion, the announcement of Fury's next opponent certainly is news, and maybe even "massive news," if you are Fury or one of his fans.
Since there still hasn't been any breaking news regarding Klitschko cashing in on his rematch clause, I actually do expect Fury's next opponent to be somebody else. A smart bet would be fellow Brit and former cruiserweight and WBA heavyweight champion David Haye, who returned to the ring after a break of more than three years with a Round 1 TKO of Mark de Mori in January.
Haye and Fury were set to fight in the past, only to be endlessly delayed and eventually cancelled due to Haye's injuries. A match now, after all this time, but with the heavyweight crown on the line, would at the least be viewed as "massive news" inside of British boxing circles.
With Anthony Joshua likely to capture the IBF belt from Charles Martin in April, the eyes of the heavyweight division will very much be on England in 2016.
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