Breaking Down Novak Djokovic's Chances to Complete the Career Grand Slam in 2016
Novak Djokovic’s torrid streak through history has set him up for another chance at the career Grand Slam, and 2016 is a chance to push past legendary rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal with something unique to his legacy.
After destroying Andy Murray, and perhaps nullifying their rivalry altogether, the Serbian is looking to fill the one gaping hole on his resume. It’s “win the French Open or bust.” And while it’s a simple directive, the road will be long and arduous. To complicate matters, it’s not just any French Open title. This chance in 2016 is an unprecedented shot at history.
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Djokovic has already joined the head table at Tennis Club Elite, exclusive company with Rod Laver, Bjorn Borg, Pete Sampras, Federer and Nadal. He has 11 major titles, including four of the last five, and he is enjoying one of the most dominant stints ever with no end in sight with the No. 1 ranking.
If he wins the 2016 French Open, he will be the first player since Rod Laver (1969) to hold all four major titles at once. It’s not a true calendar grand slam, but nobody else has done it in nearly 50 years. This “Djoker Slam” (spanning 2015 Wimbledon through 2016 French Open) would be the first time someone held all four majors as played on two kinds of hard courts, clay and grass.
Why are Djokovic’s chances to succeed looking very good when compared to those legends who fell short in the recent past?
Why Others Have Failed
Bjorn Borg was the king of the European majors, or “Channel Slam.” He won six French Open titles and five Wimbledon crowns, but he was never close to holding all four major titles at once. He failed to win the U.S. Open at all, and only once at the start of his career did he compete Down Under. It was a different era.
Pete Sampras’ bid for a personal Grand Slam ended at the 1994 French Open when his insistence to enforce his style was clearly at odds with the bigger deluge of heavy topspin from Spanish baseliners like Sergi Bruguera and Alberto Berasategui. He couldn’t get by American rival Jim Courier in the quarterfinals who could hit bigger with his in-and-out forehand from positions of comfort.
Roger Federer looked nearly invincible in both 2006 and 2007, but once again the French Open was the killer. Standing in his way, Nadal was a greater clay-court player, and perhaps no player in history was going to beat him at Roland Garros. Chalk this up as mission impossible.
Nadal would get his chance at the 2011 Australian Open following his three successive major titles on three different surfaces. Then, his knees buckled against David Ferrer in the Australian Open quarterfinals, and at any rate Djokovic was beginning his first epic streak on the way to an easy title. Tough luck.
Finally, Djokovic would storm into Roland Garros in 2012 with his first crack at the Djoker Slam. He would fight valiantly to come back against Nadal in the final that spanned two days and four sets on sodden clay. Ultimately, Nadal was too great to lose in his backyard.
It’s also important to note that Djokovic’s level had dropped significantly in the months leading from the 2012 Australian Open to the French Open. He lost to John Isner at Indian Wells, and Nadal streaked through Djokovic at Monte Carlo and Rome on his way to the French Open. Djokovic, like Federer before, was the clear underdog for that French Open quest.
Why Djokovic Will Be Successful
Unlike the Australian Open, where Djokovic was the overwhelming favorite, the French Open will be more difficult. We might give Djokovic 3-1 odds to finally seize his Holy Grail, augmented by different conditions this time around.
- Nadal is no longer the indomitable King of Clay. Last year, Djokovic squashed him in the highly anticipated quarterfinal matchup that proved to be a mere appetizer for how Djokovic has crushed the Spaniard in recent meetings. It’s possible Nadal rebounds, but it's very unlikely he will be the clay-court monster he was in 2008 or 2012.
- Other competition is good, but Djokovic has that invincible aura, like Federer 2006-07. Is the competition at top a little thinner now? Certainly Djokovic makes it seem this way, just as Federer used to beat down his nearest competitors. Andy Murray has been knocked around, and we don’t always know if Stan Wawrinka will get to the final weekend. Djokovic against the field, and it doesn’t feel close at the moment.
- His motivation is very high. After the Australian Open win, Djokovic, via Tennis.com, discussed the hunger that other players have to beat No. 1. He talked about playing well in the months leading up to the French Open, and not losing his edge: “Kind of a mindset that one needs to have if one wants to stay up there," he said. “Because I think you need to work double as hard when you're up there.”
Escaping the Cycle of French Open Defeat
There’s a movie entitled Groundhog Day in which the protagonist is caught in a time warp. He must relive the same day over and over with the frustrations of not being able to escape. In many ways, this has been Djokovic’s angst in trying to win the French Open.
Djokovic couldn’t get through Federer in the 2011 semifinals, and then his 2012 final comeback against Nadal was somewhat thwarted by rain. In 2013, a wayward overhead error in the fifth set opened the door for Nadal to survive an epic semifinal. In 2014, he was weakened from illness and faded to a four-set final loss. Last year, his breakthrough against Nadal was rudely tossed aside against Stan Wawrinka’s career effort in the final.
Over and over he has not been able to shake the frustrations of French Open pain.
Will this be the year?
It will not be easy to navigate the crescendo of expectations and pressure as he enters the clay-court season. He admitted he must continue to play at his lofty level. “I can't allow myself to relax and enjoy,” he said via Tennis.com. "... I’m already thinking about how can I continue on playing well throughout the rest of the season each tournament.”
Djokovic has openly craved this title before, only to have it come crashing down for one reason or another, so it’s a cautionary tale that nothing, not even his recent dominance, is guaranteed. Challenges can come from players like Gilles Simon or Milos Raonic. Nadal could roar back. Wawrinka might pop in to play the antagonist one more time.
Losses happen, even for Djokovic, but he’s also the best in the business at bouncing back. After losing August finals at Canada and Cincinnati, he seemed worn out and at least slightly vulnerable. Since, he’s won every tournament he’s entered, his one defeat a harmless round-robin match at the WTF finals that no doubt helped him come back to win the final with vengeance.
Will he or won’t he? It’s the biggest and most important question on the ATP tour, where it’s become Djokovic’s tour. At stake is no less than the most legendary year-long accomplishment of the Open era. It’s a chance to create an enviable accomplishment that his fellow legends were not able to complete.
Three months to go and the drama is just beginning. King Novak must take it one match at a time, and if all goes well, he stands an excellent chance at finally holding the Musketeer’s Cup.
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