Stock Up, Stock Down on Expected MLB Contenders Entering February
While there are still a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report to camp and about a month before the exhibition season gets underway, make no mistake about it—baseball season is nearly upon us.
Sure, a number of notable free agents still need to find new homes, and a handful of trades figure to go down between now and Opening Day, but we have a pretty good idea how each MLB team's roster will look once the games begin to count.
So what better time to check on the stock of each contending club?
Initially, we were only going to focus on those teams that either made the postseason or came within five games of reaching the playoffs. But simply too many teams that had hugely successful offseasons fell outside those parameters for us to go down that route.
As a result, we've pegged 19 teams as legitimate contenders heading into spring training. And yes, that number figures to increase, as clubs on the fence add additional pieces. Parity in baseball is alive and well.
The focus will be on the comings and goings from each team's roster.
Who got better, who got worse, and who looks pretty much the same as they did at the end of the 2015 season? Let's take a look.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 19
Arizona made as much noise as any team this offseason with a pair of bold moves—signing Zack Greinke away from the Los Angeles Dodgers and trading a huge package of talent to Atlanta for Shelby Miller. The team drastically improved its rotation in the process.
Those two moves alone thrust the Diamondbacks firmly into the conversation as contenders in the National League West, though plenty of questions still need to be answered.
Can Yasmany Tomas not only play serviceable defense in left field but hit enough to justify the team's $68.5 million investment in him? Can Jean Segura return to his All-Star form of 2013, or is Arizona's newest acquisition still miscast as a top-of-the-order bat?
Additionally, there are concerns about the bullpen, which got by with a setup man, Brad Ziegler, serving as the closer last season. Adding a true ninth-inning option—or bolstering the bridge from the rotation to Ziegler—would go a long way toward solidifying Arizona's place among the other contenders.
Stock: Up
Baltimore Orioles
2 of 19
Baltimore deserves credit for doing what nobody thought possible—keeping Chris Davis, Darren O'Day and Matt Wieters in Orioles uniforms. But as Peter Schmuck wrote for the Baltimore Sun, that's not enough:
"The new question is, where do the Orioles go from here? The Orioles still have done little to improve their pitching staff and now that they've ponied up for Chris Davis, it remains to be seen just how much money is still available to sign a free-agent starter, or -- for that matter -- one more corner outfielder. As configured, the Orioles still cannot say they are a better team than they were last year.
"
There's a chance the Orioles won't be as good as they were last year, when they played .500 ball to finish third in the American League East.
Nobody knows how Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim, who surprised himself with a MVP-winning performance in the Premier 12 tournament, will fare against major league pitching on a full-time basis. We do know that Mark Trumbo is a defensive liability who can't get on base with any consistency.
Those two will handle the outfield corners for the Orioles, with Nolan Reimold and Joey Rickard in reserve.
Even more troubling is the rotation, where the Orioles lack depth and are counting on Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman to bounce back from down years and Kevin Gausman to take a major step forward in his development.
Gausman could emerge as the team's ace, but the odds are against Gonzalez, Jimenez and Tillman all being able to deliver substantially better performances in 2016. Should the Orioles need to replace someone due to injury or ineffectiveness, their options are Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright and—nobody else.
Stock: Down
Boston Red Sox
3 of 19
A team's stock can't help but tick upward when it adds an All-Star talent like Craig Kimbrel or David Price. When a team adds both of them—and some quality secondary pieces to boot—it's hard not to become giddy like a child on Christmas morning.
Given the star power of Boston's two big additions, it's easy to overlook some of the other pieces the Red Sox added, namely starter Roenis Elias, reliever Carson Smith and versatile outfielder Chris Young. All three figure to play significant roles throughout the upcoming season.
Sure, plenty of questions need answers. Can Hanley Ramirez stay healthy and handle first base? Can Pablo Sandoval keep the weight off and get back to producing at an All-Star level?
But all these additions—and a farm system that still has a number of quality, nearly major league-ready prospects ready to help if needed—will find the Red Sox back in the thick of the playoff race after a miserable 2015 campaign.
Stock: Up
.png?w=256)
Chicago Cubs
4 of 19
Whether Chicago added any significant pieces to its roster this winter or not, the Cubs were going to be well-positioned to build on a 97-win season that earned them a wild-card berth, only to fall four games short of reaching the World Series.
The experience that the team's impressive young core of talent—Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler—picked up last season alone made that a near certainty.
Given that the Cubs went out and not only signed the versatile Ben Zobrist but poached a pair of free agents from division-rival St. Louis (Jason Heyward and John Lackey), they have to be considered a lock to crack the 100-win plateau and the favorites to win the National League Central—if not the National League.
Stock: Up
Cleveland Indians
5 of 19
Cleveland resisted the temptation to trade away a key piece of its starting rotation this winter, holding onto Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, whose names all appeared on the rumor mill at one point or another over the past few months, per Peter Gammons on Gammons Daily.
But the Indians did little to address an offense that finished 11th in the American League in runs (669). While Cleveland added veterans Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli, they are quality players who are best utilized in part-time roles at this point in their respective careers.
With MVP candidate Michael Brantley questionable for Opening Day after November shoulder surgery and question marks in center field, left field and at third base, the Tribe needed to do more to improve its chances of winning what could be a wide-open American League Central.
Stock: Even
Detroit Tigers
6 of 19
Coming off a forgettable season that saw Detroit post the American League's worst run differential at minus-118, new general manager Al Avila went out and added the pieces needed to thrust the Tigers right back into the thick of contention in the AL Central.
Jordan Zimmermann forms a formidable trio atop the team's rotation with Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander, while the back end of the bullpen underwent a major renovation. The Tigers brought in setup men Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson to bridge the gap to the new closer, Francisco Rodriguez.
Former Tigers farmhand Cameron Maybin was added to split time with Anthony Gose in center field (and provide additional depth on the bench), while slugger Justin Upton effectively replaces Yoenis Cespedes, who the team moved at last year's trade deadline for a pair of minor league pitchers.
With a healthy Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez back in the heart of the order, Detroit looks poised to make a serious run at the World Series crown that has eluded owner Mike Ilitch for years.
Stock: Up
Houston Astros
7 of 19
The Houston Astros arrived a year earlier than many expected, reaching the playoffs for the first time in a decade, taking down the New York Yankees in the Wild Card Game and giving the eventual world champion Kansas City Royals a run for their money in the divisional round.
Taking a flier on veteran starter Doug Fister could pay big dividends, and the trade for up-and-coming closer Ken Giles significantly improves a bullpen that was already pretty good but surrendered significant rotation depth in the process.
First base remains a problem, with former top prospect Jon Singleton set to get another shot to prove he can actually hit major league pitching. Another top prospect, A.J. Reed, could push his way into the conversation, but he might not be ready to contribute until midseason at the earliest.
While the team's stock is trending upward thanks to Giles' arrival, the Astros could have done more to solidify their standing in the AL West.
Stock: Up
Kansas City Royals
8 of 19
The Royals didn't necessarily get better this winter, losing Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist as free agents, but the team did enough to maintain the status quo—and that was good enough to bring a World Series victory to Kansas City for the first time in 30 years.
Ian Kennedy isn't Cueto, but the 31-year-old is a reliable innings-eater (averaging 196 frames per year since 2010) who gives his team a chance to win when he steps on the mound. His fly-ball tendencies will be less of an issue with Kansas City's phenomenal outfield defense behind him.
That defense will once again be anchored by All-Star Alex Gordon, who signed a team-record deal to remain a Royal, while a reunion with Joakim Soria ensures the bullpen will remain one of baseball's best—and a major weapon as the team mounts a defense of its crown.
Stock: Even
Los Angeles Angels
9 of 19
It's easy to place the blame for all of the Los Angeles Angels' shortcomings this winter on new general manager Billy Eppler, but the ire of Angels fans should be firmly affixed on owner Arte Moreno, whose refusal to exceed the $189 million luxury tax threshold has his club worse off than it was a year ago.
The Angels needed to add offense but instead used their two most valuable trade chips—pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis—to acquire an elite defender at shortstop in Andrelton Simmons, a career .259 hitter who has never produced at a league-average level offensively.
There's a gaping void in left field, one that the trio of Todd Cunningham, Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava is ill-equipped to fill, while Albert Pujols' absence from the lineup as he recovers from offseason foot surgery ensures that two of those three players will be in the everyday lineup until his return.
Yunel Escobar might be an upgrade at third base over David Freese, but that's far from a sure thing, and catcher could also be an issue with the departure of Chris Iannetta, who was replaced by the tandem of Carlos Perez and Geovany Soto.
A team that wasn't eliminated from playoff contention until the last day of the regular season a year ago seems poised to have its World Series aspirations dashed far earlier in 2016.
Stock: Down
Los Angeles Dodgers
10 of 19
While the Los Angeles Dodgers added two starting pitchers in free agency—veteran Scott Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda—and even more depth in the minor leagues via trade, the starting rotation isn't as good as it was a year ago thanks to Zack Greinke's departure for division-rival Arizona.
The Dodgers walked away from a potential deal for All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman, leaving a bullpen that needed reinforcements essentially unchanged, unless you count the addition of long reliever Joe Blanton to be a significant move.
Re-signing Howie Kendrick to handle second base was a smart move, as it allows the versatile Enrique Hernandez to fill a super-utility role for first-year manager Dave Roberts, but it's hard to argue that the Dodgers are significantly better than they were a year ago.
Stock: Down
Minnesota Twins
11 of 19
An 83-win season and run at a wild-card berth found Minnesota surprising many in the baseball universe last season, but the Twins did little this winter to bolster their chances of reaching the postseason in 2016.
Signing Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park to serve as the designated hitter could pay big dividends, as the 29-year-old smacked 173 home runs over the past four seasons for the Nexen Heroes in the Korean Baseball Organization, but there's no guarantee his power will translate to the big leagues.
Rather than trade third baseman Trevor Plouffe to clear a path for Miguel Sano, the Twins decided to slide Sano, a third baseman, out to right field as a replacement for the retired Torii Hunter. Only time will tell whether that move works.
John Ryan Murphy is an upgrade, offensively at least, over Kurt Suzuki behind the plate, but there are questions about his ability to produce on an everyday basis.
Stock: Even
New York Mets
12 of 19
For the longest time, it looked like the additions of second baseman Neil Walker and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera would be the only significant moves the New York Mets were going to make this offseason, which would have been a disappointing result for the defending National League champions.
Then came an agreement with slugger Yoenis Cespedes, and suddenly, all was right at Citi Field once again.
Cabrera and Walker's arrivals add depth to the bench, with Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada serving as utility infielders. Meanwhile, keeping Cespedes ensures the club will have a legitimate power bat to give captain David Wright, who missed much of the season due to a chronic back issue, some protection.
With baseball's best rotation—one that features the ageless wonder, Bartolo Colon—and a bullpen that will be bolstered by new arrival Antonio Bastardo and, at some point, starter Zack Wheeler, who the team can bring along slowly in his return from Tommy John surgery, the Mets look like legitimate contenders again.
Stock: Up
New York Yankees
13 of 19
Adding Aroldis Chapman to the back end of a bullpen that already featured two of the game's most dominant relievers, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, makes whatever deficiencies the New York Yankees have in their rotation less of an issue.
The club also added some depth to the starting staff with the addition of prospect Luis Cessa from Detroit as part of the return for reliever Justin Wilson. Cessa and Bryan Mitchell figure to be the first two players called upon if/when a need for a sixth starter should arise.
Starlin Castro represents a significant upgrade at second base over Stephen Drew, Brendan Ryan and Rob Refsnyder. Entering his age-26 season, Castro's best baseball could still lie ahead, though he'll need to mature quickly if he's to survive the pressure of playing under the spotlight in New York.
Losing first base prospect Greg Bird for the season with a shoulder injury hurts, especially considering Mark Teixeira's fragility, but his loss isn't enough to significantly diminish the team's chances of contending for a playoff spot once again in 2016.
Stock: Up
Pittsburgh Pirates
14 of 19
Always having to find creative ways to roll over the roster due to financial constraints, Pittsburgh once again will rely on its ability to turn middling pitchers—like J.A. Happ—into more-than-serviceable starters, with veterans Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong this year's test subjects for pitching coach Ray Searage.
Dealing away fan favorite Neil Walker to obtain Niese seemingly leaves a void at second base (at least until Jung Ho Kang is healthy enough to return), but a combination of Pedro Florimon, Sean Rodriguez and prospect Alen Hanson should be able to hold things down until Kang is ready to go.
First base remains uncertain, with the Bucs opting for a platoon of John Jaso and Mike Morse over the departed Pedro Alvarez, while former Milwaukee farmhand Jason Rogers waits in the wings at Triple-A.
The Pirates seem to have done enough to remain in contention for a playoff berth in 2016, but it's hard to argue that the team is any better than it was a year ago, when it was the second-best team in the NL Central in the regular season.
Stock: Even
San Francisco Giants
15 of 19
Even if San Francisco had opted to make small additions this offseason, we'd have to consider the Giants serious contenders because it's an even year—which means it's time for them to embark on one of their remarkable runs to a World Series crown.
Adding Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to the rotation should go a long way toward reaching that goal. Along with ace Madison Bumgarner, they give the Giants a trio of starters who are all capable of providing 200-plus innings, taking significant stress off the team's sometimes overworked bullpen.
Denard Span not only gives the club a legitimate table-setter atop the rotation, but his arrival helps to fill the void in left field, with Angel Pagan shifting to the position and, hopefully, lessening the wear and tear his body dealt with in center field.
Whether or not the Giants are able to live up to the expectations and claim their fourth World Series victory since 2010, the club is in far better shape to contend for baseball's top spot than it was a few months ago.
Stock: Up
St. Louis Cardinals
16 of 19
The St. Louis Cardinals won their third consecutive NL Central crown in 2015 as the only team in baseball to crack the 100-win plateau. But after a tumultuous offseason, one that saw two key contributors (Jason Heyward and John Lackey) defect to division-rival Chicago, their reign atop the division may be over.
Signing Mike Leake effectively replaces Lackey in the rotation, and a healthy Adam Wainwright atop the rotation will certainly help. But the loss of Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery is a blow the club hasn't yet addressed, and Jaime Garcia's shaky shoulder is always a concern.
The lineup remains solid, even without Heyward, and the additions of infielder Jedd Gyorko and catcher Brayan Pena should help to solidify the bench (assuming Pena isn't pressed into the lineup due to Yadier Molina's injured thumb).
While the Cardinals have been able to silence their critics in the past, it feels as if this year's club is more vulnerable due to a lack of depth.
Stock: Down
Texas Rangers
17 of 19
It's been quiet in Texas for much of the offseason, with only complementary pieces like outfielder Justin Ruggiano and reliever Tom Wilhelmsen added to the mix for a team that, once left for dead, used a second-half surge to win the AL West.
According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers have been linked to Milwaukee catcher Jonathan Lucroy for months, and they certainly have the pieces to make a deal happen if or when the Brewers decide to trade their All-Star catcher, but the Rangers will rely on improvements from within in 2016.
Namely, a return to health for staff ace Yu Darvish, former top prospect Jurickson Profar (who hasn't played in two years due to a bad shoulder) and former MVP candidate Josh Hamilton will go a long way in dictating whether the Rangers are able to successfully defend their division crown.
Stock: Even
Toronto Blue Jays
18 of 19
Toronto will once again rely on its high-powered offense to try to barrel its way to a second consecutive AL East crown. Rather than spend big on one free agent or package its remaining top prospects to try to replace the departed David Price in its rotation, Toronto opted to add depth to its pitching staff.
Re-signing Marco Estrada to a two-year, $26 million deal will prove to be one of the winter's biggest steals, while J.A. Happ should be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm.
Swingman Jesse Chavez and late-inning reliever Drew Storen bolster the bullpen and allow the Jays to stretch out 23-year-old Aaron Sanchez, who is still young enough to develop into a quality starter after spending parts of the last two seasons in relief.
Having Troy Tulowitzki leading off isn't ideal, but with the Jays having traded Ben Revere to Washington in exchange for Storen, Tulo is probably the team's best option—at least until prospect Dalton Pompey proves he can hit major league pitching consistently and forces his way into the lineup.
The Blue Jays might not be significantly better than they were a year ago, but they aren't significantly worse, either.
Stock: Even
Washington Nationals
19 of 19
It'd be a stretch to say that Washington underwent sweeping changes after a disappointing 2015 campaign, but the Nationals head into the 2016 season with a new manager (Dusty Baker), a new second baseman (Daniel Murphy) and a nearly completely revamped bullpen.
Four new relievers—Trevor Gott, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez and Yusmeiro Petit—join late-season addition Jonathan Papelbon in an attempt to improve a group that pitched to a respectable, albeit unspectacular 3.46 ERA in 2015, the National League's 10th-best mark.
That revamped bullpen will support a rotation that lost both Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann from last year's group, replaced internally by Tanner Roark and Joe Ross.
Washington revamped its infield as well, with Anthony Rendon replacing Yunel Escobar at third base, Danny Espinosa replacing Ian Desmond at shortstop and Murphy replacing Espinosa at second. The team added Ben Revere to take over in center field and lead off, giving the Nats a table-setter atop the lineup.
Are the Nationals better than they were in 2015? Maybe. But with reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup and the duo of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg leading the rotation, it's hard to say they're any worse.
Stock: Even
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
.png?w=480)
