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Future NFL Free Agents Who Must Be Extended This Offseason

Ian WhartonJan 27, 2016

There’s just one game left before the 2016 NFL offseason is officially underway, but general managers are surely setting up their game plans on how to improve their roster already. With 21 teams flush with over $20 million in cap space before veteran cuts take place, there will be significant spending this offseason. One area where that money should go is taking care of future free agents.

If the early extensions for Denver Broncos defensive end Derek Wolfe and Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz are any indication of what is coming, then getting ahead of the spending boom would be wise. Smart general managers will set the market, not be reactive and beat the previously set standards.

It’s also important to reduce impending free agents’ cap number to help maximize flexibility. Often players in the final year of their contracts have a massive cap hold, which leaves the team in a position where they need to rip that contract to shreds and start over.

Elite players will likely want a starting salary near the salary-tag amount, if not more. This is manageable though, since the team can manipulate the cap hit to a certain extent.

We have eight players whom their franchises must extend this offseason. These deals are in the best interest of both the team and player to get done now in order to maximize cap space for the team and earnings for the player.

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

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The biggest free agent name of 2017 is Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. Even after an injury-riddled 2015 campaign, he is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. The Colts should take care of his new contract as quickly as possible to lock him in.

At 26 years old, Luck is still not in his physical prime. He’s thrown for 14,838 yards, 101 touchdowns and 55 interceptions in his four seasons. The 2012 No. 1 overall pick has certainly lived up to his predraft billing as an elite talent.

Luck is scheduled to make $16.15 million in 2016, which is more than double his 2015 salary. With top quarterbacks averaging about $21 million per year, a new contract for Luck will give him another significant raise. He’s likely in line to become the highest-paid NFL player of all time, considering his age and value to the team.

Instead of tearing up his current contract, the Colts may choose to add years on to his last season to preserve valuable cap space this offseason. Adding four years worth around $100 million to his deal would keep Luck in Indianapolis through 2020, at least. There’d also be no question about his future with the team, and it would save the Colts from dealing with the massive cap charges that come with the franchise tag.

Matt Kalil, OT, Minnesota Vikings

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The career arc of Minnesota Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil is one of the more interesting of recent draft picks. The 2012 first-rounder had his best year in his rookie season, earning a Pro Bowl trip. But he struggled for large parts of the last three seasons and is closer to average than good at this point.

For the Vikings, who have a terrible offensive line, Kalil is valuable as they look to fill various other offensive needs. But his contract situation could hold the team back from properly building around quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. With just $20 million to spend with several players to re-sign, reworking Kalil’s contract is a must.

Kalil’s fifth year of his rookie deal equals an $11.1 million cap hit. He’s certainly not worth that amount, as that salary would place him fourth-highest among left tackles. A proper value would be around $7.5 million per year, which would put him 12th in salary for the position.

A new five-year, $40 million contract that escalates from $7.5 million per year would help open millions for the Vikings now. It would also lock in Kalil for the foreseeable future at an affordable rate and allow them to fill other needs.

Stephon Gilmore, CB, Buffalo Bills

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One of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL is Buffalo Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore. A first-round pick in 2012, Gilmore has morphed into a No. 1 cornerback at a premium position. Now, the Bills must lock him in to a long-term contract.

Since he's just 25 years old, the Bills can offer a five-year contract without concern of a physical drop-off due to age. He has dealt with injuries in each of the last three seasons but is two seasons removed from his most severe ailment, a fractured wrist. He missed three games in 2015 with a shoulder injury.

Factoring his penchant for injury, Gilmore’s 2016 salary of $11.1 million can be managed to help the Bills open cap room and also give Gilmore a fair deal. While he is not in the elite tier of cornerbacks, he does fit in the bracket that is averaging about $10 million per year.

Buffalo should work off Byron Maxwell’s 2015 contract, where he’ll average $10.5 million per season but had a cap hit of just $8.7 million in his first season. If Gilmore will accept such a deal, the Bills would get much-needed cap relief. As of now, they’re projected to be $3 million over the cap in 2016.

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Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions

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Unlike some of the others on this list, Ezekiel Ansah does not have a cumbersome cap number for 2016. The fourth-year defensive end is on pace to make just $5.9 million for the Detroit Lions next season. For a player with 30 sacks in three years, that’s a bargain.

But it also means Ansah will receive a massive contract extension eventually. New Lions general manager should Bob Quinn should get out in front of the issue and add to Ansah’s deal before the market explodes and he holds out for free agency. That strategy already backfired on the franchise when it lost Ndamukong Suh last year.

The Lions have more than $60 million open in 2017, which is when the first year of a new deal with Ansah will kick in. With the average salary for elite defensive ends around $15 million, that’s the number Ansah should aim for. He’ll be 28 years old when the 2017 season kicks off, so he may not cash in like J.J. Watt or Mario Williams did with their deals, since they were several years younger when they got large contracts.

That all being said, a five-year, $60 million extension that kicks in after 2016 would give Ansah solid security and the Lions a good value for his services. He’s the star of the defense and has continued to improve every season.

Harrison Smith, FS, Minnesota Vikings

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The second early extension candidate for the Minnesota Vikings, free safety Harrison Smith is looking for his first mega contract. The 2015 Pro Bowl safety has been excellent for the Vikings defense and has proved he is among the top few players at his position. The Vikings should lock him up before other top safeties reset the market.

Other major safeties who have expiring contracts within the next two years are Eric Berry, Malcolm Jenkins and Reshad Jones. If Smith can get a new deal before them, the Vikings might save considerable cash. Extending him now makes perfect sense.

Smith is in line to make $5.28 million in 2016. That is a bargain for his services, but don’t expect him to make that little after next season. Top safeties make around $9 million or more on new deals.

Smith should go for a top contract like that of Seattle Seahawks safety Earl Thomas and New England safety Devin McCourty. They average $10 million and $9.5 million per year, respectively. Smith certainly deserves that type of payday.

On a five-year, $50 million contract extension that starts after 2016, the Vikings can lock in Smith for the next six years. He’s just 26 years old now, so this contract could help Smith finish his career with the Vikings.

Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina Panthers

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While the Carolina Panthers are focused on Super Bowl 50, general manager Dave Gettleman should already be planning on his strategy to improve the team for next season. That’ll take some maneuvering with the cap, as the Panthers have a bevy of free agents to re-sign or replace. With just $20 million of cap space, they'll need to make some adjustments.

The most obvious player who can help provide cap relief is defensive end Charles Johnson. Coming off a monstrous $76 million deal, he has just one more season left before he hits free agency. Carolina cannot stomach his $15 million cap hit in 2016 without jeopardizing several key free agents, so an extension that tears up his current contract is necessary.

Johnson will be 30 years old at the start of the 2016 season. That could limit how much the Panthers want to spend on him, but older pass-rushers have been successful into their 30s. DeMarcus Ware and Julius Peppers give reason to believe Johnson will play another five or so seasons.

A proper contract for Johnson should be in line with Ryan Kerrigan’s deal, which averages $11.5 million per year. This would be a slight decrease from the $12.66 million he was earning on his last deal, but it reflects a different part of his career.

Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals

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After another solid season that was capped off with a deep playoff run, the Arizona Cardinals have to pay several of their talented playmakers in the next two years. Armed with only $20 million, the Cardinals must find a way to reward players who have earned it but also add significant upgrades across the roster. Some contract adjustments are necessary to make that happen.

The biggest contract that can be torn apart and extended is that of defensive end Calais Campbell. The 29-year-old is one of the top 3-4 defense ends in the NFL, producing 48.5 sacks in his eight-year career. He’s a stalwart for Arizona's talented front.

But Campbell has a massive $15.25 million cap hit for 2016. The Cardinals must lower that number to extend other key defensive pieces. If they can redo his deal with an average cap hit of $11 million, like his original contract was for the first three seasons of his five-year deal, the Cardinals will have significantly more cap room to operate.

When Campbell initially signed his five-year, $55 million deal, his cap hit for the first two seasons were $5 million and $8.75 million, respectively. If the Cardinals can even manage to get his number closer to the second figure, then they can reload in free agency for a Super Bowl push.

David DeCastro, G, Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Pittsburgh Steelers were patient with 2012 first-round pick David DeCastro as he endured some injuries and poor play in his first season, but he has been excellent the last three years. It’s now time to address his contract, as he’s entering his option year, which acts like a franchise tag. But at $8.1 million figure for 2016, the Steelers are better off with a long-term contract with DeCastro.

The highest average per year for an offensive guard is Logan Mankins with $8.5 million. Putting DeCastro in the top five makes perfect sense, but spreading that money over the course of a five-year deal can help lower his cap hit by millions of dollars. The Steelers need the help, as they have just $9 million in space entering the offseason.

Pittsburgh has a whopping 29 free agents to either bring back or replace. Extending DeCastro and pushing as much money into the future can help the team now and make sure the offensive line stays intact for the long term.

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com. Contract figures courtesy of Spotrac, and salary-cap numbers courtesy of Over the Cap.

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

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