Predicting Which NHL Teams on the Bubble Will Make the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs

The highway to the NHL playoffs looks like it's headed for a serious traffic jam this season.

As the 50-game mark in the 2015-16 schedule approaches, we still have very little clarity about which 16 teams will get the chance to play for the Stanley Cup in April. Here's why:

After the conclusion of games on Jan. 19, the playoff cut line in the Eastern Conference is 51 points.

Eleven of the 16 teams in the East are currently within four points or less of that 51-point mark on either side—competing for six playoff spots. At this point, only the Washington Capitals and Florida Panthers look assured of postseason berths, while the Buffalo Sabres, Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets are most likely out of contention.

In the West, 49 points is enough to earn a team one of three different fates. For the San Jose Sharks and Arizona Coyotes, it's enough to hold down a playoff spot in their division, while the Colorado Avalanche cling to the second wild-card berth. Meanwhile, the Vancouver Canucks are on the outside looking in due to a dismal 15 regulation and overtime wins—tied for second worst in the league in the tiebreaker category.

The Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues and Los Angeles Kings all look like they're assured of Western Conference playoff spots, but no team is completely out of it yet in the West. Even the last-place Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames are only six points behind the Avalanche.

Last season, the Ottawa Senators overcame an 11-point deficit at the All-Star break to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, while the Minnesota Wild made up seven points in the West. Here's a look at which teams look most likely to hold onto their spots this year, which ones are in danger and which ones could play spoiler in each conference.

The website Sports Club Stats offers each team's mathematical odds of getting to the dance. Other factors such as injuries, momentum and even tradition can also have an impact.

Eastern Conference: Playoff Contenders

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These teams are currently sitting in playoff spots and will most likely finish the season the same way.

Detroit Red Wings

• 45 GP, 23-14-8, 54 points, second in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 69.1 percent

In a year of transition under new coach Jeff Blashill, the Detroit Red Wings still look like a playoff team in the Motor City. Henrik Zetterberg, 35, and Dylan Larkin, 19, are tied for the team's scoring lead—a perfect illustration of the Red Wings' success at combining youth with experience.

Add in the emergence of Petr Mrazek as one of the NHL's next great goaltenders, and the Red Wings are poised to glide into the playoffs for the 25th straight season.

Tampa Bay Lightning

• 46 GP, 25-17-4, 54 points, third in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 88.5 percent

Most of the headlines surrounding the Tampa Bay Lightning this season have focused on their player personnel issues—the impending free-agent status of captain Steven Stamkos and the trade request of young forward Jonathan Drouin.

Ravaged by injuries, the Lightning underperformed early in the season. Now that they're healthier, they're looking more like the team that reached the 2015 Stanley Cup Final. Currently riding a six-game winning streak, the Lightning now look poised to make another playoff push this year.

New York Rangers

• 65 GP, 25-16-5, 55 points, second in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 85.8 percent

"The Rangers Are Done" screamed the headline to the story by longtime beat writer Larry Brooks in the Jan. 18 New York Post. After reaching the final four in his first two years behind the New York Rangers' bench, coach Alain Vigneault has watched his team struggle as the 2015-16 season has worn on.

But standards are high in the Big Apple, and a substandard Rangers team is still better than a lot of the competition—especially on home ice at Madison Square Garden.

The Rangers won't repeat as Presidents' Trophy champions and probably won't challenge to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final, but they'll punch a ticket for the dance in April.

New York Islanders

• 45 GP, 24-15-6, 54 points, third in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 85.8 percent

Captain John Tavares has fallen off his point-a-game pace from the last few seasons, but the New York Islanders are winning games with balanced scoring and solid defense—even without injured blueliners Johnny Boychuk and Travis Hamonic.

One of the hardest-hitting teams in the NHL, the Islanders should be tough to play against down the stretch. Expect to see them wrap up their first year at Barclays Center with a third playoff appearance in four years.

Boston Bruins

• 45 GP, 24-16-5, 53 points, fourth in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 90.0 percent

After a tumultuous 2014-15 season, the Boston Bruins are starting to look more like the team that won the Stanley Cup in 2011 and challenged for the championship again in 2013.

Top-line center Patrice Bergeron has been a kingpin of the Boston lineup for years, but the 30-year-old has taken his game to another level this season, leading the Bruins in scoring with 41 points as well as providing stellar two-way play. Add in a bounce-back year for veteran captain Zdeno Chara and excellent special teams, and Boston won't be left on the sidelines again this spring.

Eastern Conference: Spoilers

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These teams are most likely to move back into the playoff picture at season's end.

Montreal Canadiens

• 47 GP, 23-20-4, 50 points, sixth in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 49.2 percent

No other NHL team's fortunes are tied as closely to one player as the Montreal Canadiens' are to their MVP goaltender Carey Price. 

After two strong seasons that included substantial playoff runs, the Canadiens have transformed from an Eastern Conference powerhouse to a non-playoff team since Price was sidelined for the second time this season with a lower-body injury on November 25.

But he won't be injured forever—and Montreal is close enough in the standings to still be in the playoff hunt. The pessimist's view says that even when Price returns, Montreal's goal-scoring struggles will continue, but they're currently tied for seventh overall in offense—a far-from-dire statistic.

If Price can perform at his usual otherworldly level when he gets back into action, expect the whole team to get a lift—and the Habs to march back up the standings into a playoff spot.

Long Shot: Philadelphia Flyers

• 44 GP, 20-16-8, 48 points, sixth in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 20.7 percent

Keep an eye on the Philadelphia Flyers as the team that might surprise down the stretch.

New coach Dave Hakstol has quickly remade his group, with their newfound defensive effectiveness being especially noteworthy. The scoring is now starting to come, which has earned the Flyers a 5-2-1 record since Jan. 1.

With a healthy roster, emergent defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere and games in hand on every other team they're challenging in the standings, the Flyers are in good position to dislodge one of the current incumbents for a postseason berth if they can continue their impressive evolution.

Eastern Conference: Also-Rans

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Here's who will not be making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year:

Currently in Playoff Position 

New Jersey Devils

• 47 GP, 23-19-5, 51 points, fourth in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 31.9 percent

The Devils have taken steps forward this season under their new regime of general manager Ray Shero and coach John Hynes. Netminding is excellent, defense is solid but goals are still pretty darn hard to come by.

Mike Cammalleri can't generate enough offense on his own. Expect to see the Devils sputter down the stretch, ultimately slipping out of the wild card by season's end.

Outside Playoff Position

Ottawa Senators

• 46 GP, 22-18-6, 50 points, sixth in Atlantic Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 29.2 percent

Don't expect another Cinderella surge from the Senators this season. The Sens are 28th in the league with 141 goals against—not a recipe for success when games get tight through the stretch run.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• 45 GP, 21-17-7, 49 points, fifth in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 43.0 percent

Everything's upside down in Pittsburgh, where Marc-Andre Fleury's having a brilliant year in net but Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel can't score enough to create any sort of winning momentum.

The latest attempted solution? Hoping that Carl Hagelin can rediscover his scoring touch after he was acquired in exchange for David Perron and Adam Clendening on Jan. 16, per the Penguins' website.

One thing that hasn't changed is Pittsburgh's propensity for freak injuries. Most recently, defenseman David Warsofsky was knocked out of action after an awkward collision with referee Tim Peel on Jan. 17, per Jen Neale of Yahoo Sports.

Carolina Hurricanes

• 47 GP, 20-19-8, 48 points, seventh in Metropolitan Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 8.0 percent

If a tree fell outside the PNC Arena in Raleigh when the Carolina Hurricanes made the playoffs, would anybody hear it?

The team with the lowest average attendance in the league, according to ESPN.com, is making a push for its first postseason berth in seven years thanks to a 4-2-3 record so far in 2016, fuelled primarily by improved defence and goaltending.

With two of their most important players due to become unrestricted free agents this summer, the Hurricanes will need to make decisions about Eric Staal and Cam Ward before the Feb. 29 trade deadline. Expect general manager Ron Francis to make moves to improve the long-term health of his team rather than pushing for a brief playoff appearance this spring.

This isn't the year that the Hurricanes get back into the postseason mix.

Western Conference: Playoff Contenders

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These teams are currently sitting in playoff spots and will most likely finish the season the same way.

San Jose Sharks

• 44 GP, 23-18-3, 49 points, second in Pacific Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 85.5 percent

The San Jose Sharks started 2016 mired in a three-game losing streak but since then, they've climbed into second place in the Pacific Division thanks to a 5-0-1 streak.

The team is showing signs of coming together under new coach Peter DeBoer, and former captain Joe Thornton is not ready for the seniors' home quite yet at age 36. According to Pete Jensen of NHL.com, Thornton's 19 points in his past 15 games are second only to Patrick Kane in the entire NHL.

Expect the Sharks to keep surging down the stretch and, especially, to improve on their lackluster 8-12-1 home record.

Colorado Avalanche

• 47 GP, 23-21-3, 49 points, fifth in Central Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 54.6 percent

In the upper reaches of the Central Division sit the Blackhawks, Stars and Blues—comfortably biding their time until this season's real challenges begin in April. A little further down, the Colorado Avalanche have maintained similar momentum while the teams around them in the standings have faltered.

The Avs are still showing signs of inconsistency, but they're gaining ground—winning more than they're losing. It looks like that's all they'll need to do to get back to the playoffs this year after a one-season absence.

Western Conference: Spoilers

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These teams are most likely to move back into the playoff picture at season's end.

Anaheim Ducks

• 44 GP, 19-18-7, 45 points, fifth in Pacific Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 20.2 percent

Credit goaltender John Gibson for helping the Anaheim Ducks get out of the Pacific Division basement and start making their charge toward a playoff spot. Gibson hasn't allowed more than three goals in any of his 19 appearances this season. He gives his team a chance to win every night.

But the Ducks have scored just 88 goals in their 44 games so far—exactly two goals per game and by far the lowest in the league. They're the only team that has yet to get into triple digits. 

The puck luck is bound to shift in their favour before much longer. Don't expect to see the Ducks echo last year's Los Angeles Kings and Boston Bruins as Stanley Cup favourites who fail to reach the postseason.

Long Shot: Vancouver Canucks

• 47 GP, 19-17-11, 49 points, fourth in Pacific Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 37.8 percent

A team in transition, the Vancouver Canucks own some pretty worrisome statistics this season. They're dead last in the NHL in faceoff percentage and are 28th overall with 31.3 shots allowed per game—a number that's getting worse and worse on the team's current road trip thanks to at least 40 shots against in all four games so far.

Despite their terrible possession game, the Canucks are also 2-1-1 in the first four games of the trip and have given up a respectable 10 goals thanks to tremendous netminding from both Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom.

After a rough patch, Vancouver is 8-4-3 since a devastating road loss to the Minnesota Wild on Dec. 15 and remains in the playoff mix.

The Canucks have shown unexpected resilience this year despite some clear flaws in their team structure. Don't count them out quite yet.

Western Conference: Also-Rans

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Here's who will not be making the playoffs in the Western Conference this year:

Currently in Playoff Position 

Arizona Coyotes

• 45 GP, 22-18-5, 49 points, third in Pacific Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 52.4 percent

Rising from the ashes of last season like (dare I say it?) a Phoenix, the Arizona Coyotes have been one of the biggest surprises of 2015-16.

Rookies Max Domi and Anthony Duclair have shown plenty of promise, and Louis Domingue has been excellent while filling in for injured starting goaltender Mike Smith, but the Coyotes' juggernaut is going to run out of steam as more experienced Pacific Division teams make their pushes for the playoffs.

Like the Devils in the East, expect the Coyotes to finish the season just outside the playoff picture.

Minnesota Wild

• 45 GP, 22-15-8, 52 points, fourth in Central Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 84.3 percent

Almost exactly one year ago, Devan Dubnyk arrived on the scene in Minnesota and turned around the season for the Wild.

Dubnyk's still playing well, but he's not unconscious this season, which means Minnesota's other deficiencies are now catching the light. Scoring is a problem—with 113 goals, Minnesota is tied with Vancouver for the second-lowest offense in the Western Conference.

If GM Chuck Fletcher can hit it out of the park with another great trade this year, the Wild could glide into a playoff berth. Otherwise, expect to see Minnesota slip down the standings during the stretch run this time around.

Outside Playoff Position 

Nashville Predators

• 46 GP, 20-18-8, 48 points, sixth in Central Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 25.1 percent

It's over for the Nashville Predators if goaltender Pekka Rinne can't find his game.

Rinne has given up three goals or more in each of his last five appearances. The Predators can't score their way out of those types of holes, as their 0-4-1 record in those games would indicate.

Nashville's drop in the standings has been swift, and there's no indication it's ending any time soon. All-Star weekend looks like it will be the highlight of the 2015-16 hockey season in the Music City.

Winnipeg Jets

• 46 GP, 21-22-3, 45 points, seventh in Central Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 17.9 percent

Don't expect to see the Winnipeg Jets back in postseason action this year. A five-game losing streak in early November dropped the team down the standings and it hasn't recovered—never able to string together more than two wins in a row.

With the playoffs likely out of reach, the Jets will be an interesting team to watch at the trade deadline as they decide whether to deal pending unrestricted free-agents Dustin Byfuglien and captain Andrew Ladd.

Calgary Flames

• 43 GP, 20-20-3, 43 points, sixth in Pacific Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 30.0 percent

Because they've played less games than any other team in the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames are still very much alive mathematically in the playoff race, but it's been one step forward, one step back for the Flames, as they've been trying to overcome a terrible start to the season.

Calgary simply has too many teams to leapfrog in order to get back into the playoff conversation.

Edmonton Oilers

• 47 GP, 19-23-5, 43 points, seventh in Pacific Division
• Playoff chance per Sports Club Stats: 5.4 percent

Phenom Connor McDavid will soon be back in the lineup after recovering for his broken clavicle, but the Edmonton Oilers will remain shorthanded at center now that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is expected to be sidelined for two months with a hand injury suffered Jan. 18, per CBC Sports.

Like their neighbours to the south in Calgary, the Oilers haven't been able to stay hot long enough to make any significant upward movement in the tight Pacific Division standings. They'll compete for the first overall pick in the draft lottery again this year, just like usual.

Stats courtesy of NHL.com, current through games completed Tuesday, Jan. 19.