
NFL Playoffs 2016: Most Crucial Matchups to Watch
With the NFL playoffs down to the final eight teams, there are a few crucial matchups heading into the divisional round.
Essentially, this list is what I believe the most important matchups will be in regard to a team's chances to win.
If you're unaware, the games this weekend will be:
- Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
- Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
- Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
As an example of the most crucial, with Steelers receiver Antonio Brown out against the Broncos with a concussion, how will Martavis Bryant and the other receivers fare? Or who will win the battle between Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson and Carolina quarterback Cam Newton?
Then with any luck, my predictions will be spot on. (Each game is mentioned at least twice, so on the second go-around, I'll give my game predictions.)
Let's get to it.
Peyton Manning vs. Peyton Manning
1 of 8This may seem like a joke, but I'm not kidding.
Hear me out.
Peyton Manning hasn't looked good this season.
Over the summer, Manning said he still lacks feeling in his fingertips, per Peter King of The MMQB, (via ProFootballTalk.com.)
According to Accuweather.com, it'll be around 40 degrees at kickoff and should be barely above freezing by the final horn.
How Manning's hand/arm holds up in the cold will be a huge indicator for the Broncos' chances to make their run. Head coach Gary Kubiak put all his chips on Manning, electing him as the starter over the more-capable Brock Osweiler (at least from an actual ability-to-throw standpoint).
Obviously when healthy, Manning is the better option. But with his age and recent injuries, can he hold up during the coldest time of the season?
However, he may not need a career game this weekend because the Pittsburgh Steelers are so banged up offensively. But he has to get something rolling. I'm only asking 225 yards, a touchdown and no turnovers.
Though he came in the game against San Diego in Week 17, Manning only completed five of nine passes for 69 yards. It was his adjustments at the line and the running attack that helped Denver defeat the Chargers, 27-20.
With a potential AFC Championship against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots or the Kansas City Chiefs and that pass rush, this is the game where Manning has to show something.
Marshawn Lynch vs. Carolina Panthers Defense
2 of 8Marshawn Lynch is back, according to ESPN's Kenny Mayne, via Sheil Kapadia.
Lynch hasn't played since Nov. 15.
While Thomas Rawls was a productive replacement, his Week 14 ankle injury has made Lynch's return all the more necessary for the Seahawks.
Against the Minnesota Vikings last weekend, the Seahawks run game was all but shut down. (In fact, their offense was all but shut down except for one drive.)
Running back Christine Michael mustered 70 yards on 21 carries. Quarterback Russell Wilson was the second-leading rusher with 21 yards, and the Seahawks totaled 97 as a team.
With Lynch in the backfield, the power-run game is back, but I want to see his level of rust, if there is any. This is Marshawn Lynch we're talking about.
In a loss against the Carolina Panthers in Week 6, Lynch had only 54 yards on 17 carries, but he did have a score.
I'm a firm believer in Wilson's talent. I think he makes the offense explosive and quick-hitting.
But for the Seahawks to maximize their chances of beating the Panthers, Lynch has to be a part of the mix against the fourth-best rush defense in the league and a team that has won 11 straight at home.
Prediction: 18 carries for 80 yards, 1 touchdown
Julian Edelman vs. Sean Smith/Marcus Peters
3 of 8On Thursday, I wrote about the impact receiver Julian Edelman could have on the Patriots' chances to beat Kansas City and advance to the AFC Championship.
If he can plant on that foot and get over the mental hurdles, then he could be a huge factor for New England.
But that's not to say it's going to be easy. During their 11-game win streak, the Chiefs have benefited from the play of two solid corners in Sean Smith and rookie Marcus Peters.
And since Peters and Smith can play press coverage, they'll have opportunities to disrupt Edelman's route running off the snap.
As I said on Thursday, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws most often when the Patriots are seven to 10 yards from a first down. About 60 percent of Edelman's targets come in that range, too.
For a team with a banged-up offensive line, Brady will have to get the ball out quickly.
If Edelman shows us that he's healthy, then his presence could be huge.
Prediction: 8 catches, 90 yards, 1 touchdown
Martavis Bryant and Receiving Core vs. Broncos
4 of 8Antonio Brown is officially out against the Broncos, according to a team report, via Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com.
With the best receiver in football (Can we all agree on that?) not playing, the onus of the offense is on the other dynamic weapons, specifically Martavis Bryant.
After being challenged by Ben Roethlisberger to "toughen up," Bryant has yet to have that breakout game. But he did score one of the most acrobatic touchdown catches you'll ever see in the Wild Card Game against Cincinnati last Saturday.
Bryant has big-play capability, and if you get the ball in his hands, sit back and watch the man make a play.
But Roethlisberger issued the challenge because Bryant can disappear. In the final two games of the regular season, Bryant combined for two catches and six yards.
Truth be told, he didn't have a great performance against Cincinnati either, recording five catches for 29 yards and the touchdown.
With Brown out, Bryant is officially the guy. And with Roethlisberger nursing a hurt shoulder (explained later), the Steelers need him to show up and give us one of his eight-catch, 125-yard performances.
I'm going to roll the dice on Bryant this week.
Prediction: 8 catches, 110 yards
Patriots Offensive Line vs. Kansas City Chiefs
5 of 8We know football is "won in the trenches." And one of the most important positions in football is the offensive line.
The Patriots have been decimated by injuries, especially to their line. If the video above shows anything, it's the Patriots' worst nightmare when Brady isn't protected.
That's a big concern with a defense that is coming in having won the last 11 games.
The Chiefs' defense has recorded 47 sacks and forced 29 turnovers this season, according to Michael Whitmer of the Boston Globe.
If the Patriots want to advance, they'll have to stop Justin Houston and the rest of that pass rush.
Edelman's return helps Brady and the offense, and if Brady can get time, I don't see even the Chiefs' defense being enough to stop him.
Game Prediction: Patriots 24 Chiefs 17
Ben Roethlisberger vs. the Denver Defense
6 of 8Ben Roethlisberger is injured.
For the Steelers, he also will be the biggest reason why they advance—if they do.
His AC sprain, per Stephania Bell of ESPN.com, will cause him pain throughout the game:
"An AC sprain makes it particularly painful for an athlete to raise his arm overhead; movements across the body can also be difficult. For a throwing athlete, coming across the top of the arc of motion and advancing the throw can be affected.
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He's hurt, and it's going to hurt. Last weekend, we saw how the injury affected Roethlisberger, as he wasn't able to throw any passes downfield.
His matchup won't help either because the Broncos have far and away the best pass defense in the NFL, giving up only 199 yards per game through the air. And that's not accounting for linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware on the edges.
However, that's not to say Roethlisberger can't have any impact. Even injured, he gives the Steelers the best chance to win.
As I said earlier, Martavis Bryant is a playmaker. Roethlisberger should try to get the ball to him and let Bryant do the rest.
Markus Wheaton has similar ability. If the Steelers can get creative, then there are opportunities. We saw it earlier this year when the Steelers beat the Broncos, 34-27 in Week 15. (Big Ben was healthy.)
With quarterback problems of their own, the Broncos aren't guaranteed a blowout. So the Steelers have a shot.
The question is: Will Roethlisberger have enough?
Game Prediction: Broncos 28 Steelers 21
Cam Newton vs. Russell Wilson
7 of 8I believe Carolina QB Cam Newton is the MVP of the NFL, but there is certainly an argument for Seattle's Russell Wilson. (Now that's how you hedge your bets, folks.)
The funny thing about these two is their matchup earlier this season, which Carolina won 27-23, wasn't during the runs they would make later on.
In fact, Newton threw two interceptions and Wilson only threw one touchdown, though they both had their usual production on the ground.
It's hard to imagine—with Newton's lack of weapons and Seattle's injuries—these two teams being in this position without their quarterbacks.
Is there any doubt that this game is going to come down to who plays better? The defenses are both solid but beatable, and since it won't be below freezing at kickoff, the offenses will have chances to produce.
It comes down to this: Who do you believe in more?
Wilson is the first quarterback in NFL history to have 4,000 yards passing in a season, 30 touchdown passes and 500 yards rushing, according to Alex Reimer of SB Nation.
Not to be outdone, Newton accounted for 45 touchdowns this season (35 passing, 10 rushing) and led the league's highest-scoring offense (31.3 points per game) to a 15-1 record.
As for me, I'm going with the MVP by the slimmest of margins. (Which pains me since I'm Wilson's No. 1 fan.)
Game Prediction: Panthers 34 Seahawks 31
Aaron Rodgers vs. Arizona's Defense
8 of 8The first matchup between Green Bay and Arizona, in Week 16, was not good for the Packers.
It was a shellacking (38-8) and may have been the most painful game to watch, both physically and metaphorically.
The Cardinals' defense dominated the Packers, scoring two touchdowns off turnovers, sacking Aaron Rodgers nine times and intercepting him once.
But there is hope in the redemption game.
For one, the Packers' offensive line woes appear to be nearing an end, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN. That means Bryan Bulaga, T.J. Lang and Corey Linsley should all be playing together this week.
Left tackle David Bakhtiari (sprained ankle) is expected to play as well. Per Demovsky, Barkhtiari said he had no setbacks during practice on Thursday.
And the Packers will need all of them if they want to keep Rodgers upright.
"According to ESPN Stats & Information, [Arizona] blitzed (defined as sending five or more pass-rushers) on a league-high 45.1 percent of opponents' dropbacks in the regular season," Demovksy said.
Rodgers' season has been a weird one. Even in the Wild Card Game at Washington last Sunday, he only threw for 210 yards and one touchdown. He hasn't thrown for 300 yards in eight games.
He didn't throw for 4,000 yards this year despite throwing 30 touchdowns for the fifth time.
Green Bay's season rests on the hopes of Rodgers having a Rodgers-type game.
To be honest, I don't think past domination is going to repeat itself. This game will be different, though I'm still leaning Cardinals.
Game Prediction: Cardinals 34 Packers 28
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