Stock Watch for Top College Basketball Teams Early in 2016

With conference play finally underway, it is time to take stock of where the top teams stand after two months of nonconference play. It's also time to assess which way those teams are headed—whether they figure to continue on their present course or are likely to deviate.

We take a look at each of the top 15 teams in the Jan. 4 Associated Press poll and assess whether their stock has risen or dropped since the season began. The team's current Associated Press ranking relative to its preseason spot in the Top 25 is the primary factor in determining stock movement. However, some consideration was given to how the team has fared over the last few weeks, indicating which way it is trending.

Because only the current Top 15 teams are examined, teams that have suffered the biggest drop in their stock are not included. Gonzaga and Wichita State, which were ranked No. 9 and No. 10, respectively, in the preseason poll, are now out of the Top 25, suffering major declines in their stock. 

The stock movement is listed at the end of each team's summary, indicating whether its stock is up, down or holding steady. After that is a projection of whether that team's stock is worth buying, selling or holding. Buying means the team's stock is expected to rise from its current standing, while selling means we anticipate a decline.

Teams are listed in ascending order of their ranking, with No. 1 Kansas listed last.

SMU (13-0)

Jim Cowsert/Associated Press

Preseason AP Ranking: Not ranked

January 4 AP Ranking: 15

SMU has benefited from a relatively easy schedule. Nonetheless, the Mustangs are one of just three undefeated teams heading into Monday's action, and that virtually guarantees a Top 25 ranking in January.

Even with coach Larry Brown suspended for the first nine games, the Mustangs have inched their way up the AP poll by simply doing what was expected in every game.

SMU, which has yet to play a ranked team, was tested in games against unranked TCU and Colorado, suggesting weakness. But the Mustangs won both, which reflect this team's experience. SMU returned nearly all the key components from last season's 27-7 squad, including American Athletic Conference Player of the Year Nic Moore. The addition of Texas Tech transfer Jordan Tolbert gave the Mustangs another tested veteran.

They just don't lose games they should win.

The Mustangs don't face many potential pitfalls in conference play. Thursday's home game against Cincinnati may test them, but their four toughest remaining games are a Feb. 13 home game against Gonzaga, a Feb. 18 road game against No. 23 Connecticut, a March 3 home game against UConn and a March 6 road game against Cincinnati.

The Mustangs are unlikely to win all four, but they should win at least two of them, leaving them with a nice record and a high ranking entering their conference tournament.

Stock: Up.

Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy. There is every reason to believe the Mustangs can rise a few more notches based on their upcoming schedule.

Duke (12-2)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 5

January 4 AP Ranking: 14

Kentucky beat Duke rather decisively early in the season, and Blue Devils freshman Brandon Ingram did not look physically ready for Division I competition in that game. 

As Ingram settled in, so did Duke, which remained in the Top 10. However, when forward Amile Jefferson suffered a broken foot in mid-December, it messed up the Blue Devils' lineup and continuity. A neutral-court loss to Utah on Dec. 19 pushed Duke's ranking down to No. 15, and the Blue Devils are still outside the Top 10.

The Blue Devils' victory over Boston College on Saturday was their first game this season played on their opponent's home court. Things will get tougher in conference play with road games against the likes of North Carolina, Miami, Louisville and Pittsburgh, not to mention a home game against Virginia.

Duke has not beaten a single team that is currently in the Top 25. Its best win was a 20-point home victory over Indiana. Add the fact that Jefferson is expected to miss several more games, and the Blue Devils face some challenges.

Guard Grayson Allen is spectacular at times, but you never know what you are going to get. He scored six and seven points in the Blue Devils' two losses.

Stock: Down

Buy, Sell or Hold: Sell. Even at No. 14 and with Mike Krzyzewski directing traffic, the Blue Devils could drop further.

Iowa State (11-2)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 7

January 4 AP Ranking: 13

Iowa State remained unbeaten through its first eight games, using a soft nonconference schedule to ease its way up to a No. 4 ranking on Dec. 7.

But then the Cyclones needed a comeback from a 20-point deficit to get past unranked Iowa at home and lost to unranked Northern Iowa on a neutral court. Despite the return of the top three scorers, including preseason AP All-American Georges Niang, from last season's 21-9 team, the Cyclones seemed vulnerable under new coach Steve Prohm. They slipped to the No. 11 spot in the AP poll on Dec. 21 and fell to 13th after losing to Oklahoma.

However, the Cyclones have played better lately, beating then-No. 22 Cincinnati on the road on Dec. 22 and leading Oklahoma for most of the game before suffering four-point loss on the Sooners' home court.

The recent surge has coincided with the addition of guard Deonte Burton, a transfer from Marquette who became eligible four games ago. He had 12 points in the win over Cincinnati and 19 in the loss to Oklahoma.

Stock: Down

Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy. The Cyclones looked good in the loss to Oklahoma, and the addition of Burton may provide the missing ingredient needed to challenge for a Big 12 title.

Miami (12-1)

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Preseason AP Ranking: Not ranked

January 4 AP Ranking: 12

The home loss to Northeastern back on Nov. 27 is a bit puzzling, but the Hurricanes have been impressive otherwise. Back-to-back double-digit wins over Utah and Butler in Puerto Rico put the Hurricanes on the map nationally, and they have been steamrolling opponents lately.

Miami has won its last six games by an average margin of 22 points per game. That run includes a 13-point win over Syracuse in its ACC opener, a game in which Miami scored just 17 points in the first half but erupted for 47 in the second.

Experience is the key to Miami's success. The Hurricanes have four seniors among their top seven scorers, and the team's two stars, Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez, are fifth-year seniors. 

Miami is also attracting larger crowds to its Coral Gables arena, which suggests the Hurricanes might have a genuine home-court advantage this season.

Unranked in preseason and picked to finish fifth in the ACC, Miami is starting to resemble the 2012-2013 Hurricanes, who were unranked in preseason but finished the regular season at No. 5 after winning the ACC regular-season and tournament titles.

Stock: Way Up

Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy. The competition Miami will face in the ACC will make it difficult to move up too far, but this team, with Jim Larranaga calling the shots, seems capable of advancing a few more rungs.

Villanova (12-2)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 11

January 4 AP Ranking: 11

Villanova holds the exact same ranking it had when the season began, but it took a circuitous route to get there.

The 23-point loss to Oklahoma in Honolulu on Dec. 7 pushed the Wildcats' stock down precipitously. The 11-point road loss to Virginia two games later was no surprise, but it kept the Wildcats from rising from their No. 17 spot in the AP poll. It seemed the addition of touted freshman Jalen Brunson was not making up for the loss of three starters from last season's team.

Since that loss to Virginia, though, Villanova has been impressive, winning those four games by an average of 26.3 points. The 31-point demolition of previously unbeaten No. 6 Xavier in the conference opener indicated the Wildcats are still the team to beat in the Big East. It also moved Villanova up six slots to the No. 11 ranking.

Brunson is coming along, and Ryan Arcidiacono is adapting nicely to sharing the playmaking role with Brunson. 

Stock: No movement, but trending upward.

Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy. That win over Xavier suggests further upward movement is in store.

Xavier (13-1)

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Preseason AP Ranking: Not ranked

January 4 AP Ranking: 10

Xavier's decline after its one-sided loss to Villanova on Dec. 31 does not completely erase the Musketeers' major move up the charts. They were not just unranked in the preseason; they were buried deep among the teams receiving votes.

Xavier won its first 12 games to climb to No. 6 in the rankings on Dec. 28, and that run including double-digit victories over Michigan, Dayton and Cincinnati. The 29-point victory over preseason Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton on a neutral court in Florida was particularly impressive.

The Musketeers' rebounding power, balanced scoring and ability to get to the free-throw line pushed Xavier much higher than expected.

The 95-64 loss to Villanova, which shot 63.2 percent from the field, brought the Musketeers back to earth and halted their momentum. But they bounced back with a convincing win over then-No. 9 Butler.

Guard Trevon Bluiett has been Xavier's star, but he has not been at his best against the Musketeers' top opponents. His 2-of-9 shooting with four turnovers against Villanova and his 1-of-8 performance against Cincinnati were telling.

Stock: Way up, but trending downward

Buy, Sell or Hold: Sell. Now that the bubble has burst, the Musketeers may slide down gradually from their peak.

Kentucky (11-2)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 2

January 4 AP Ranking: 9

With three freshmen ranked among the nation's top 10 recruits by Rivals.com and the return of point guard Tyler Ulis, Kentucky was again expected to compete for a national title despite the loss of its top seven scorers from last season's team.

The Wildcats made their preseason No. 2 ranking look good when they took apart then-No. 5 Duke in their third game, with freshmen Jamal Murray and Isaiah Briscoe combining for 28 points.

Kentucky moved up to the No. 1 spot on Nov. 23 and held it for two weeks. However, the Wildcats have since lost twice on the road to unranked teams, UCLA and Ohio State, which dropped them as low as No. 12 on Dec. 21.

Freshman forward Skal Labissiere, the country's No. 1-rated recruit according to Scout.com and Rivals.com, has not yet lived up to his billing and has been coming off the bench in the two games since the loss to Ohio State. He is sixth on the team in playing time and averaged 4.3 points in the four games against Duke, Louisville, UCLA and Ohio State.

Since the loss to Ohio State, Kentucky has beaten then-No. 16 Louisville and clobbered a 10-2 Mississippi team by 22 points. That nudged the Wildcats back up to No. 9, but they are not the dominant team they were last year.

Stock: Down

Buy, Sell or Hold: Sell. Freshmen-laden teams often struggle to win on the road, and even though the Wildcats beat Duke on a neutral court, this Kentucky team has yet to prove it can play well consistently away from home, even in a conference that lacks great teams.

Providence (14-1)

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Preseason AP Ranking: Not ranked

January 4 AP Ranking: 8

Even though Providence point guard Kris Dunn was an Associated Press preseason All-American, the Friars were unranked in the preseason AP poll and picked to finish fifth in the Big East.

The Friars demonstrated they were better than anticipated when they beat then-No. 11 Arizona on Nov. 28 in Fullerton, California. They proved that was not an early-season fluke when they knocked off then-No. 9 Butler on the Bulldogs' home floor in their conference opener.

Their only loss was a Nov. 30 defeat at the hands of Michigan State when Spartans star Denzel Valentine was healthy.

Dunn has been outstanding, averaging 17.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 3.1 steals per game to put him squarely in the national player of the year discussion. However, it is the improved play of sophomore forward Ben Bentil and the addition of Rodney Bullock that have given the Friars the unexpected lift into the Top 10.

After averaging 6.4 points and 4.9 rebounds as a freshman, Bentil is up to 18.9 points and 7.9 rebounds this season. Bullock was suspended by coach Ed Cooley for the entire 2013-2014 season and then sat out last season following October surgery on his leg. Now a sophomore in his first season of action, Bullock is averaging 14.3 points and 7.7 rebounds and had 25 points in the victory over Butler.

Stock: Way Up

Buy, Sell or Hold: Hold. Providence seemed like a precarious stock until that road victory over Butler. Now, a further rise seems possible. There is one problem, though: The Friars may not be able to pass anyone in front of them.

Arizona (13-1)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Preseason AP Ranking: 12

January 4 AP Ranking: 7

Arizona lost four starters from last season's 34-4 team, and the lone returning starter, center Kaleb Tarczewski, missed eight games with a foot injury before returning for the Pac-12 opener against Arizona State.

In the first game without Tarczewski, Arizona lost on a neutral court to Providence, which was unranked at the time. That sent the Wildcats tumbling from No. 11 to the No. 19 spot in the rankings.

Arizona made up for that loss by winning on the road against then-No. 13 Gonzaga, which owns one of the toughest home courts in the nation. That was the best win of the season for Arizona, which has inched back up to No. 7.

As it turns out, Providence is a lot better than expected, so that loss does not look as bad now, but Gonzaga is not as good as many thought, which minimizes the significance of that victory.

Freshman Allonzo Trier has increased his production recently, averaging 17 points in his six games in December, while Boston College transfer Ryan Anderson has established himself as a potent inside force.

The bottom line is that we still don't know much about Arizona, which lost its only game against a team currently ranked in the Top 25.

Stock: Up

Buy, Sell or Hold: Hold. The return of Tarczewski should help, and the Wildcats have as good a chance as anyone of winning the Pac-12 title with no other dominant teams emerging. However, they have done nothing to indicate they will skate through conference play unscathed. It's best just to leave this stock investment untouched.

North Carolina (13-2)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 1

January 4 AP Ranking: 6

There was nowhere to go but down for the Tar Heels after being ranked No. 1 in the preseason poll, and their road losses to Northern Iowa (without Marcus Paige) and Texas (with Paige) showed they are not invincible. However, the home victory over Maryland and the decisive, neutral-court win over UCLA demonstrated what this team is capable of accomplishing.

Injuries have disrupted the Tar Heels' continuity. First, Paige missed the first six games with a broken right hand, and now forward Kennedy Meeks has been sidelined the past six games with a bone bruise in his left leg suffered in the Dec. 12 game against Texas. He is expected to return soon, although it is not clear exactly when.

Meeks (when healthy), Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson form one of the best frontcourts in college basketball, one that can dominate the boards and inside play. The Tar Heels need Kennedy to return and Paige to stay injury-free.

Stock: Down but trending upward

Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy. The Tar Heels have too much experience and talent not to contend for the ACC title. But don't invest until Meeks gets healthy.

Michigan State (14-1)

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Preseason AP Ranking: 13 

January 4 AP Ranking: 5

Michigan State shot up the rankings after pulling off what is probably the best win of any team this season, a neutral-court victory over Kansas. That enabled the Spartans to climb to No. 3 in the rankings on Nov. 23. They took over the No. 1 spot on Dec. 7 and held it for four weeks.

Guard Denzel Valentine has put up numbers that made him the early-season favorite for national player of the year, averaging 18.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists. The Dec. 20 knee injury to Valentine is expected to sideline him for just one more game, as he plans to return for Sunday's game against Penn State, according to ESPN.com.

The Spartans did not look like a No. 1 team in the three games he has missed. In the first game without Valentine, they had to go to overtime to beat Oakland in a contest in Auburn Hill, Michigan. In the next game, Michigan State suffered its first loss, trailing from beginning to end in a 13-point loss to unranked Iowa. The team struggled to beat Minnesota in the third.

The question is whether the negative momentum developed in Valentine's absence can be halted when he returns.

Stock: Up overall but trending downward.

Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy. Although Michigan State has slipped recently and may take some time to find its footing when Valentine returns, the Spartans will get themselves together by February.

Virginia (12-1)

ANDREW SHURTLEFF/Associated Press

Preseason AP Ranking: 6

January 4 AP Ranking: 4

The loss to unranked George Washington in the second game of the season raised some early doubts about the Cavaliers, but they have since re-established themselves as one of the nation's best teams. Double-digit victories over West Virginia and Villanova in consecutive games in December allayed any fear that Virginia was on the decline.

The most significant factor is that the Cavaliers have added a high-powered offense to a defense that is always among the best in the country. They are still holding opponents to less than 60 points per game on average, but they are scoring 75.7 points per game, more than 10 points better than last season's 65.4.

Their scoring figures to go down a bit during conference play, but there is no doubt they play with a faster pace this season. 

Guard Malcolm Brogdon, named an Atlantic Coast Conference preseason co-player of the year in large part because of his defense, has improved his offense. He is averaging 16.8 points and hitting 41.2 percent of his three-point shots.

Stock: Flat

Buy, Sell or Hold: Hold. This is not a team that can overwhelm ACC opponents with talent. But last season proved the style and smarts of the Cavaliers coached by Tony Bennett can be successful against the best teams. Virginia figures to play consistently well and remain in the Top Five. Rising higher is unlikely, though.

Maryland (13-1)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 3

January 4 AP Ranking: 3

Maryland has won the games it was expected to win and lost the one game it was expected to lose, a road game against a North Carolina team that had Marcus Paige back in the lineup.

It is hard to find a team that is more talented than Maryland, with preseason Big Ten player of the year Melo Trimble controlling things at the point and the other four starters all averaging double figures in scoring. Diamond Stone's 39-point, 12-rebound game against Penn State on Dec. 30 suggests the freshman forward is ready to play a larger role as conference play moves along.

The only concern is the Terps' inconsistency within the game. They nearly let an 18-point, second-half lead slip away against Connecticut before righting themselves and winning by 10. Two unranked teams, Georgetown and Penn State, both had leads late in games on Maryland's home court before the Terps scrambled to pull out victories.

Stock: Holding steady

Buy, Sell or Hold: Sell. The Terps will hold their own against the best Big Ten teams, but they may slip up in some games they should win.

Oklahoma (12-0)

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Preseason AP Ranking: 8

January 4 AP Ranking: 2

The Sooners face a major challenge on Jan. 4, having to play No. 1 Kansas in Lawrence just two days after beating then-No. 11 Iowa State in a tough game.

Oklahoma has played as well as anyone in the country so far. The Sooners are one of just three remaining undefeated Division I teams, and their 23-point win over Villanova in Honolulu on Dec. 7 marked them as one of the country's elite team. Coming from behind to beat Iowa State reaffirmed Oklahoma's status as a Final Four contender.

Guard Buddy Hield was a member of the Associated Press preseason All-American team, but he has been even better than anticipated, averaging 24.7 points. Going almost unnoticed because of Hield's play is the fact that the Sooners are hitting 45.3 percent of their three-point shots, third-best in the country. Their top four scorers are all hitting better than 44 percent of their threes.

Stock: Up

Buy, Sell or Hold: Sell. The Sooners have played exceptionally well, making them look like a national title contender. But they may have hit their peak at No. 2. They will remain in the Top 10, but they are likely to slip a few spots during the rigors of Big 12 play.

Kansas (12-1)

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Preseason AP Ranking: 4

January 4 AP Ranking: 1

Kansas' Jan. 4 home game against Oklahoma will match the top two teams in the nation and will be a key indicator of the direction of the Jayhawks' stock.

They have been remarkably consistent, not only this year but over the past decade. Kansas is one of the nation's blue-chip stocks, having won the past 11 regular-season conference championships.

Since their Nov. 23 loss to Michigan State, the Jayhawks have won 11 straight, including victories over UCLA, Vanderbilt and Baylor.

Following the 28-point victory over Baylor, Kansas moved up to the No. 1 spot for the first time this season on Jan. 4.

The Jayhawks will suffer some losses during Big 12 play, but it is hard to imagine them not finishing at or near the top of the standings.

The backcourt of Frank Mason III, Devonte' Graham and Wayne Selden Jr. is among the nation's best. The team's 46.0 percent shooting on three-pointers ranks second in the country. The return of junior forward Brannen Greene, who was suspended for six games (although he ended up missing only five), helps too. 

Stock: Up

Buy, Sell or Hold: Hold. The Jayhawks can't climb any higher than their No. 1 ranking; however, the history of Kansas and its consistency this season suggest it won't slip more than a few spots.