Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans (8-7) can clinch the AFC South title and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2012 simply by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at home Sunday. The Texans have won six of their last eight games both straight-up and against the spread to put themselves in position to win the division. The Jaguars have lost eight of the past 10 meetings with Houston but have covered four of the last six.

Point spread: Texans opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.2-15.0 Texans

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

This is Jacksonville's Super Bowl and a solid spoiler opportunity, knowing a win here could keep the Texans from making the postseason. The Jaguars took a positive step forward this year and have something to build on for the future, especially with the state of the AFC South up in the air. They are an up-and-coming team that has improved a lot offensively and could be a division title contender sooner than later.

The favorite is just 1-5 ATS in the previous six games between the teams, including a 31-20 home loss by Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite in Week 6. The Jaguars were right there in the thick of the division race at the time and won three of four SU following that setback while going 4-0 ATS. They will be motivated to avenge that earlier loss, too.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

With the Cincinnati Bengals losing to the Denver Broncos in Week 16's Monday night matchup, the Texans can make it easy on themselves by simply beating Jacksonville to win the division. A loss could make things interesting, although several scenarios would still need to happen in order for the Indianapolis Colts to win instead.

Houston has gone 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games against AFC South opponents, proving to be the only team to seize this chance to win it. The Texans are also hoping to have quarterback Brian Hoyer back under center as long as he passes the league-mandated concussion protocol during the week. Hoyer gives them their best shot at winning and their best shot at covering the spread as well.

Smart pick

Jacksonville has dropped 15 of its last 16 road games SU with a 6-8-2 mark ATS. However, Houston’s quarterback situation remains the key to this game. If Hoyer cannot go, then Brandon Weeden will be the starting quarterback for the Texans, making the home favorites a risky play. In that case, the Jaguars would be the pick as underdogs, so stay tuned to the latest NFL injury report information before wagering on this game.

Betting trends

The favored team is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in this matchup.

The Texans are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games.

The Jaguars are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games on the road.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.