Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 195 plays host to one of the welterweight matchups in welterweight history.
UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (26-10, 1 NC) defends his crown against No. 4-ranked contender Carlos Condit (30-8).
Lawler defended his title for the first time at UFC 189 in an instant classic against Rory MacDonald. After years of chasing gold, he now sits atop the division trying to hold off the sharks circling around him. Condit will have his second chance at the undisputed belt when he steps into the cage on Saturday.
This is a perfect fight for fans. Both men are elite fighters who have an aggressive style of refusing to back down. It is as close to a guarantee of fireworks as the UFC could possible provide.
The question is—who has the edge?
The two longtime veterans are evenly matched, but there are some key differences that will come into play in the main event on Saturday. Let's break it down and see which 170-pound fighter will walk out of Las Vegas as the champion.
Striking
1 of 5
Expect this fight to be contested mainly on the feet. That is what both men love to do and what they have historically done throughout their careers.
Both Condit and Lawler have high outputs. They each average over 3.40 significant strikes per minute, according to FightMetric.
The numbers would seem to give a slight edge to Lawler. He has small leads in strikes per minute landed, accuracy and slightly better defense. And he also has an advantage in being the more powerful striker. However, do not get too bogged down in the data. Lawler's stats are assisted by his five-round wars with Johny Hendricks and MacDonald.
I give the edge to Condit.
Condit has proven to be more tactical with his strikes, and he utilizes varying techniques to stick to an orchestrated game plan provided by Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn. Push kicks and inside elbows are just two we have seen come into play with high degree of success. When Condit was pitted against Nick Diaz, we saw him use much more footwork to avoid dangerous prolonged exchanges.
Lawler is not strictly a boxer, either, as he will throw flying knees, but he does so by throwing caution to the wind. Condit is more mindful of timing his high-risk strikes.
It's a close category, but Condit's tactical employment of his striking is what tips the scale in his favor.
Edge: Condit
Grappling
2 of 5
Remember when Lawler was known as a wrestler first? Oh, how far he has come.
Even so, I still lean toward Lawler as the better grappler. And his showdowns with Hendricks and MacDonald should be all anyone needs to see for an explanation.
Condit is a decent wrestler, but it certainly isn't his best attribute. When looking at who has the edge, it may be best to look at how they both fared against Hendricks—an All-American wrestler.
In two championship fights with Robbie Lawler that went the distance, Hendricks completed just seven total takedowns. How many did Lawler defend? 20. Condit met Hendricks in a three-round title eliminator and was able to repeatedly take him down a total of 12 times out of 15 attempts.
That is a stark contrast that shows just how good Lawler is at using his wrestling defensively and that Condit's takedown defense isn't at the top of the game. Martin Kampmann also took him down six times. He is comfortable off his back, but it does not look great in the judges' eyes.
Lawler should be able to defend most, if not all, of Condit's takedown attempts while being successful with his own should he go that route. The grappling is solidly in his favor.
Edge: Lawler
Submissions
3 of 5
While Condit may get taken down much more than Lawler, he is the better submission stylist.
You have to go back to 2005 for Lawler's only submission victory in his career. He is much more concerned with punishing his opponents than looking for submissions. Do not let that stat fool you, however, as Lawler certainly has some tools to work with on the ground.
Condit's length is a great benefit to his well-rounded ground attack. He has not won via submission since 2008, but nearly half (13) of his victories come by way of submission. And the methods vary in style.
Lawler has top-notch submission defense, but focusing solely on who has the edge with his submission game the scale tips heavily toward Condit. All signs point that way, and he has proven it inside the cage in active competition.
Edge: Condit
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Condit's X-Factor: Takedown Defense
As mentioned earlier, Condit does get taken down quite a bit. That is surely something Lawler will have in the back of his mind and something he could potentially rely on to keep the gold around his waist. Condit needs to improve his takedown defense for this fight.
A submission is always a possibility, but Lawler is very good at defending submissions. For perspective, the last two times he's tapped was to Jacare Souza and Jake Shields.
The likelihood of making him tap is low, and if Condit is on his back, he is going to be fighting from behind on the scorecards. Simply getting back to his feet quickly, which is something he's very good at, isn't going to make him the champ.
Lawler loves a fight, but he most likely loves being champion more. He may look to take this fight to the ground more than fans think. Condit needs to stay upright.
Lawler's X-Factor: Cutting off the Cage
Condit is excellent at circling away from the cage and keeping distance between him and his opponent. It was something that frustrated Diaz in their fight.
Lawler needs to cut off the cage effectively to keep Condit in front of him. This will give Lawler more opportunities to slug it out with Condit where he has a power advantage. It is a great way to score points and constantly put Condit on his heels.
Condit can win this fight at distance. The less distance the more danger he is in and the better the odds that Lawler retains.
Prediction
5 of 5
Buckle up, this one is going to be fun. And I think it will go the full 25 minutes.
This is an incredibly close fight, and I've wavered ever since it was announced. There is ample opportunity for both men to win this fight as it draws on, but I've struggled to see either man finishing.
Condit has only ever won two fights when the fight hits the scorecards, but I'm predicting he gets a third on Saturday.
Three of five. That's all anyone has to win to become champion. Just win three of five. Jackson and Winkeljohn will be why Condit wins the fight. Their game plan, whatever it may be, will help Condit score enough to win three of those rounds. Cardio shouldn't be an issue.
I expect Lawler to press more than usual due to Condit's footwork. The challenger will make the champion do most of the work and counter when Lawler gets overly aggressive. There will be exchanges, and he has to be careful not to get caught. But he will circle out before staying in the pocket too long.
Condit will play this more like UFC 143 against Diaz. He will use his intellect and coaching to topple the champion. The X's and O's of Condit's camp pays off in 12 pounds of gold when he gets his hand raised at UFC 195.
Prediction: Carlos Condit defeats Robbie Lawler by unanimous decision.
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