NFL Fantasy Football Week 16: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

It's title time. Week 16 in fantasy football means you most make the most important lineup decisions leading up to Sunday's rich slate of NFL action. 

The Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson is the current prince of fantasy football, with 472 yards from scrimmage and four scores over his past three games. While he is among the best plays of the entire week, the Buffalo Bills' Karlos Williams has also proved efficient over this season's small sample, with 489 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on just 76 touches.

Williams is poised as a top sleeper commodity with the potential to consume the majority of touches for Buffalo's run-heavy scheme in a fantasy-friendly setup. He is just one of several waiver warriors who can lead managers to imaginary glory this week. 

Please join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities, such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries affecting this week's market. 

As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 16 in the comments below. 

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 16: Karlos Williams Could Be a League-Winner

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Late in the season as rosters erode, it's helpful to identify some widely available players with the potential to provide instant production from the waiver wire.

While these players aren't stars, we're looking for some of the better bargain buys who are widely available in ESPN leagues entering Sunday's slate.

Quarterback Value

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins

The home-warrior narrative for Cousins appears true when we look at the basic home and road splits this season, as the Michigan State product has 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions at home this season but just six scores and nine picks on the road.

Another angle that might be a greater influence on these splits would be the differences in the opposition between the two disparate samples; the Redskins have played the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and New York Jets on the road already, while home games against the softer Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills have opened up big box scores. 

The real approach might just be that Cousins struggles against capable defenses, particularly in the secondary department. The Eagles have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, with Cousins tallying 290 yards and two scores versus Philly in an early-season home win. The point total for this game is quite healthy, per Odds Shark, suggesting Cousins and his hot hand can travel well up I-95.

Running Back Bargains

Karlos Williams, Buffalo Bills

The downside to Williams' prospects is that he has been dealing with a lingering shoulder ailment, but as Chris Brown of Buffalo's website recently stated, Williams is the expected starter for the Bills in a game that could trend quite run-heavy, with meteorologists forecasting high winds.

We expounded on Williams' upside profile earlier this week in ranking the top sleepers for Week 16:

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This week's opponent is the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to backs in ESPN standard scoring this season. The Bills will look to control the line of scrimmage in Orchard Park this Sunday against the equally ball-dominant Cowboys agenda. This scheme begins with feeding their backfield on early downs in order to set up reasonable third-down scenarios. 

Projections and rankings across the industry have Williams poised for a strong slice of the Buffalo backfield workload and RB2 status. We tend to agree, as the Bills' ideal game script involves a dominant early-down rushing presence, something Williams—a big and bruising back who ranked in the 73rd percentile in height (6'1") and 88th in weight (230 lbs) among tailback prospects since 1999, according to Mockdraftable.com—is well-suited for.   

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Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks

Only the Philadelphia Eagles have surrendered more rushing yards than the St. Louis Rams since Week 10. The Seahawks are the league's top offense since Week 10, averaging a ridiculous 3.1 points per drive and scoring a touchdown on 40.6 percent of their drives, which leads the league by a wide margin, per an ESPN database.

As I wrote earlier this week on Michael as one of the top sleeper backs this weekend: "The league average over that span is a touchdown on just 20.1 percent of offensive drives. The Seahawks' dominant, run-heavy agenda produced almost 200 rushing yards in Week 15 and will again look to thrive as heavy home favorites on Sunday over a reeling Rams rush defense."

Bilal Powell, New York Jets 

Powell has produced at least 13 fantasy points in standard scoring in ESPN leagues in three straight weeks, while lead back Chris Ivory has 17 total fantasy points over this stretch. Switch the scoring key to PPR and Powell is a far more productive asset than Ivory over the past month.

Powell serves an increasingly important role as the Jets offense trends toward a productive passing agenda, especially in a division game that could demand the Jets keep pace with the Patriots offense.

Waiver Wideouts

Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers

It's not solely Wheaton's breakout game during Week 12 in Seattle that saw him post 201 yards against the Seahawks' otherwise stingy secondary that impresses us; the fact he has averaged a team-best 11.1 yards per target also helps support an increasingly interesting role for the tertiary wideout. The Baltimore Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this season, which suggests Wheaton is a wise deep-league option to consider.

Rueben Randle, New York Giants 

The Giants' Odell Beckham Jr. will miss this week, which positions Randle for a strong target share. He has scored a touchdown in four of his past six games and is a candidate for double-digit targets, as the Giants' lackluster rushing game often compels the team to trend pass-happy.

Nate Washington, Houston Texans

Only for the deep and desperate scenarios, Washington produced strong WR2 production in the small sample without Cecil Shorts in the lineup earlier this season. Shorts is set to miss this Sunday's game, which indicates Washington will earn increased usage in an offense that is seventh in the league with 39.4 passing attempts per game.

Tight End Streamers

Will Tye, New York Giants

In targets on the Giants, Tye is second only to Beckham, who will miss this game with the Minnesota Vikings to suspension. Tye has hauled in 75 percent of his 32 targets over the past five games, including two touchdowns. At a shallow and fickle position, we could see Tye earn a strong target share in Week 16 and thus produce some streaming interest. 

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

Still available in 75 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time, Ebron is a low-floor, high-ceiling tight end who could enjoy a strong position, as the Lions are heavy home favorites versus an exploitable San Francisco 49ers secondary.

Fantasy Football Week 16: Game-Time Injury Decisions

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

This late into the season, injuries induce questionable scenarios all over the league. Several fantasy-relevant injury scenarios require further exploration and explanation—something we aim to accomplish in this section. With an eye on making this an easy-to-navigate section, we've organized this week's notable injuries by position.

Quarterback 

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

The status of Brees isn't confirmed, but the New Orleans Saints signal-caller is listed as questionable and is aiming to play, according to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com. Brees told reporters: "It hurts to walk. It has its challenges. But we've come up with a good plan for this week, how to support it and how to make it as manageable as possible."

It appears Brees will be active, albeit with some real concerns over his upside and production. We suggest his owners have an alternate in place, whether that is Teddy Bridgewater of the Minnesota Vikings or some other widely available quarterback playing later in the day, as the Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars don't kick off until later Sunday afternoon.

Brian Hoyer, Houston Texans 

Hoyer won't play Sunday due to lingering concussion issues, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle. Brandon Weeden gets the nod. We doubt many competitive leagues are deploying a Houston signal-caller this week, but it's worth noting the Texans offense isn't as productive without Hoyer, which limits the upside for all ancillary assets other than DeAndre Hopkins.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings 

Peterson is listed as probable at this point, but he practiced in full to end the week, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. 

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Yeldon is listed as doubtful for Week 16 in New Orleans, per the team, which offers Denard Robinson some intriguing upside as the every-down back. 

Wide Receiver 

Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant has been ruled out for Sunday's game in Orchard Park, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. We can literally avoid all of the Cowboys' skill options. Darren McFadden might have some PPR interest, but the Cowboys offense is truly barren at this stage.

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

It was so fun back in August when we drafted Bryant and Jeffery, but it now appears both will miss the title game after entirely disappointing seasons. Jeffery is listed as doubtful, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. We don't expect to see Jeffery suit up, and his impending free agency could prove riveting if he hits the open market.

New England Patriots' Receivers 

The Pats have injuries across their depth chart at receiver, with Danny Amendola not expected to play, per Ben Volin of the Boston Globe. LaFell was a new addition to the injury report this week, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.cm, but he is expected to play. Julian Edelman is officially listed as doubtful, again per Reiss.

We don't really like the inefficient receiving pattern for LaFell, which leaves us most intrigued for receiving back James White in this matchup. No Patriots' wideout profile as bankable in this matchup with the New York Jets.

Tight End

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals

Eifert has been ruled out, per Schefter. Investors enjoyed an historic touchdown season from Eifert but must look to guys like the Giants' Will Tye for sound waiver alternatives to the Bengals' ailing tight end.

Streaming of Vegas: Let the Desert Help with Identifying Fantasy Defenses

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us liking favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time last season.

Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept from 2014-15 data: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for Week 16.

The Detroit Lions are a top D/ST streamer in both season-long title games and in daily competition as the reeling San Francisco 49ers head to Motown. The Lions defense has improved substantially in the second half of the season, allowing 1.61 points per drive to opponents since Week 9. That's 10th-lowest in the league over this stretch after having ceded the most points per drive (2.5) from Week 1 to Week 8, per an ESPN database. 

The 49ers have allowed a sack on a league-worst 12.3 percent of dropbacks over the past three weeks, with the team surrendering a league-worst 17 sacks in the past three games, again per an ESPN database. Per Odds Shark, as heavy home favorites in a game with a point total sitting below the aforementioned threshold, the Lions make for an ideal streaming start in this weekend's fantasy championship climate. 

Another D/ST with positive matchup ingredients would be the Buffalo Bills, who are poised as nearly touchdown favorites over Dallas. The Cowboys are starting a practice squad-caliber quarterback and won't have Dez Bryant, per Brandon George of the Dallas Morning News. The Bills' D/ST hasn't been consistent, but both Vegas and matchup trends support a high ceiling in a game with high expected winds and a weak offensive opponent. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers' D/ST can be found in one-third of ESPN leagues but could face Ryan Mallet behind center in a game that has them already positioned as massive favorites, per Odds Shark. With a big-play defense and an inviting, mistake-prone opponent, we can guess the Steelers won't take it easy on their bitter division rivals.

Weather Watch for Week 16 in Fantasy Football

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

An unseasonably warm December on the East Coast has limited weather concerns so far this season. We have yet to see a snow-filled game, but we can expect some high-wind environments to play a part in Week 16. It's always helpful to check in on such details as we head toward kickoff.

High winds in Buffalo are expected, per Chris Brown of the Bills' website: 

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The game day forecast for the Bills-Cowboys game may lead to even more run game than initially planned by both teams. Heavy winds are in the Sunday forecast and that could mean a lot of Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee for Buffalo and plenty of Darren McFadden for Dallas.

"I would think so," said Rex Ryan of the likelihood of a heavy rushing attack for both teams. “I think with the weather, I think we’re gonna get a lot of run. I mean it sounds like we’re gonna get some Buffalo wind and so I think that’ll probably lead to the fact that we’ll probably see more run."

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This information makes Tyrod Taylor and any shares of the kicking games a bit less intriguing, as Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics found winds above 10 mph begin to see passing usage trend downward. Meanwhile, Karlos Williams would earn increased upside, given such an offensive approach. 

We also have a wind alert in Kansas City, where the Chiefs host the reeling Cleveland Browns. Helpful resource NFLWeather.com lists wind conditions as high as 21 mph on Sunday. That suggests a run-heavy trend could emerge, with the Chiefs' D/ST earning increased upside given how this could negatively affect Johnny Manziel in the passing phase.