Week 16 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over-Under Score Predictions

At this point of the NFL season, teams are who they are. It is too late in the year to expect dramatic changes over the course of a week.

The squads with bad offenses or bad defenses are going to stay bad for the next couple of weeks. If a team can't stop an opposing passing attack, it isn't going to learn at this point. On the other hand, the squads that have been dominant all year long can generally be counted on to continue this trend.

Obviously, it isn't always this easy to pick game winners with this mindset, but it certainly helps guessing trends for over-under bets. Here is a look at the top totals picks along with advice for every pick of Week 16.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick	O/U
Washington Redskins	23-20	Philadelphia Eagles	WAS +3	Under 47.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	31-14	Baltimore Ravens	PIT -10	Under 47
San Francisco 49ers	13-21	Detroit Lions	SF +10	Under 43
Indianapolis Colts	23-27	Miami Dolphins	MIA -2.5	Over 44
New England Patriots	20-21	New York Jets	NYJ +3	Under 45.5
Dallas Cowboys	10-24	Buffalo Bills	BUF -6.5	Under 42.5
Houston Texans	16-13	Tennessee Titans	TEN +5	Under 42
Chicago Bears	24-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -3	Over 45.5
Cleveland Browns	7-24	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -11	Under 43
Carolina Panthers	35-20	Atlanta Falcons	CAR -7	Over 47.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	34-30	New Orleans Saints	JAX +3	Over 51.5
St. Louis Rams	14-28	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -12.5	Over 41.5
Green Bay Packers	24-34	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -4.5	Over 50.5
New York Giants	27-28	Minnesota Vikings	NYG +6	Over 44.5
Cincinnati Bengals	13-20	Denver Broncos	DEN -3.5	Under 40.5

Top Over-Under Bets

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 43)

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

It's amazing that a team that has won eight games in a row can still be flying under the radar, but that is what the Kansas City Chiefs are doing right now. After a 1-5 start, the team has turned things around thanks to one of the top defenses in the NFL.

During the eight-game winning streak, Kansas City has allowed only 12.25 points per game, with no team scoring more than 22. The team is still going strong without top pass-rusher Justin Houston and has allowed just a combined 17 points to the San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens the past two weeks.

Nine-year veteran Mike DeVito has been impressed by the team's all-around play, per Herbie Teope of ChiefsDigest.com:

This all equals bad news for the Cleveland Browns, who have been held to 13 points or less in each of their past four road games. When the team is running the ball well—like it did two weeks against the San Francisco 49ers—the offense has a chance. Unfortunately, that isn't likely to happen against a tough Chiefs defensive front.

The pressure will be on quarterback Johnny Manziel to make plays on his own—not a great bet against such a good defense.

While the Chiefs can score on their own, it won't be enough to run up the score as this game remains under the modest total.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (Over 44.5)

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Although quarterback Teddy Bridgewater hasn't put up huge numbers this year, he certainly showed he can carry an offense with four passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in a recent win over the Chicago Bears.

Even if the Vikings remain a run-first offense, the second-year passer showed he can still beat a struggling opponent.

This is a good thing to know for the upcoming matchup against the New York Giants and the league's worst pass defense. The Giants are allowing 308.4 passing yards per game, almost 30 more yards per game than the next closest squad.

Even if running back Adrian Peterson struggles to get going on the ground, Bridgewater should be able to move the ball through the air against a defense that creates no pass rush and can't stick with opponents down the field.

Deion Sanders of NFL Network gave his harsh assessment of the Giants defense:

On the plus side for New York, signal-caller Eli Manning has played extremely well lately with eight touchdowns and just one interception over the past two games. Even without the suspended Odell Beckham Jr., the quarterback can keep his team in position to win as long as he can avoid turnovers.

The Vikings have played well defensively, but the Giants should score enough points to clear the over.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (Under 40.5)

A big-time matchup Monday night comes down to a pair of surprising quarterback options, as noted by ESPN's Trey Wingo:

Brock Osweiler has looked impressive at times leading the Denver Broncos offense, but consistency is the problem. He had three touchdowns in the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week while helping the team score 27 points, but the squad was shut out after intermission.

This was the third game in a row the Broncos failed to score a single point in the second half, which is not a trend they want to continue. The problem is that the Cincinnati Bengals defense is as good as Denver has seen and it will be a challenge to improve upon the recent results.

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals offense is learning how to play without quarterback Andy Dalton. AJ McCarron performed admirably Sunday, although this came against a relatively poor 49ers defense.

The inexperienced quarterback still has a lot to learn, which will make it difficult to beat a Broncos defense ranking No. 1 in the NFL against both the run and the pass.

Both offenses will likely struggle in a close game, and no matter who wins, it should remain a low-scoring battle.

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