Stock Watch for Potential No. 1 Seeds for the 2016 NCAA Tournament

With the holidays upon us, this is truly a time to take stock. Of college basketball.

A flurry of mid-December activity has again disheveled the Magic 8 Ball of March. Now, as we stand on the precipice of our annual end-of-year breather, things look different than they did just a month ago.

So why don't we now see where things stand at the top of the game and take stock of the possible top seeds of the big tournament? Great idea. 

For the sake of clarity and simplicity, we will use the projected No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that ESPN's Joe Lunardi's Bracketology matrix identified in its most recent iteration, which came out December 8. Teams are listed in no particular order. Stock is determined based on their performances of late (both on their own and in comparison to other potential top seeds) and their ranking in the Week 7 AP poll released Monday.

Who has excelled over these past few weeks? Who has, you know, not? Who has held the line, knowing full well that this thing called love, well, it's not always on time?

Let us kick back, ponderously stroke our beards, gaze ruminatively into the bottoms of our respective tea cups and discern where we truly are as a college basketball nation, before the storm begins on the other side of our reverie.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Marcus Paige

Record: 9-2
AP Ranking: 7

The Heels appeared to hit another gear on December 1. Star point guard Marcus Paige returned to the court, and finally the team was whole again. 

Paige recorded 20 points and five assists in a 89-81 victory over then-second-ranked Maryland at the Dean Dome. It was a perfect game for UNC, one that showcased the team's talented frontcourt and championship potential.

UNC has been good since then, but not quite as good. The nadir was a December 12 loss to unranked Texas in Austin that caused a tumble down the rankings. 

They've righted the ship with a win over then-No. 22 UCLA and others, but it could be a while before that stumble at Austin disappears in the rear view.

Stock: Down 

Oklahoma Sooners

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Buddy Hield (center)

Record: 8-0
AP Ranking: 2

Move over, mulled cider. They don't make things much hotter than these Oklahoma Sooners.

Behind player of the year candidate Buddy Hield and a mouth-burning team with a three-point shooting percentage of 48, the Sooners are running teams out of the gym. Their 21-point average margin of victory is a testament to that.

You could probably pin part of that on their meager 191st-ranked strength of schedule (per KenPom), but their 23-point shellacking of Villanova takes some air out of that balloon. 

Things will heat up fast in the new year, when they face Kansas, West Virginia and Iowa State twice in their first six games. Who knows whether they can maintain this torrid pace when the conference grind starts. If they can, here's guessing they'll sew up a top spot sooner than later.

Stock: Up

Kentucky Wildcats

Al Bello/Getty Images

Tyler Ulis (center)

Record: 9-2
AP Ranking: 12

It's not going too swimmingly for the Kentucky Wildcats right now. 

UCLA was perhaps an unexpected loss, but it wasn't downright bad. For that, we look to the Ohio State Buckeyes, who beat Kentucky by seven Saturday in Lexington.

The day after Christmas will be interesting in the Bluegrass State, when Kentucky tangles with Louisville. If the Wildcats win that one, their fans might be reassured. But until then, the team is emphatically... 

Stock: Down

Maryland Terrapins

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Melo Trimble

Record: 10-1
AP Ranking: 4

The North Carolina loss was not humiliating or insurmountable. Even with Paige's return and all the emotion in the building, the Terps nearly came back behind the unbelievable play of point guard Melo Trimble, who you really need to watch if you haven't already.

Despite being only a sophomore, you get the feeling Maryland can only fall so far as long as Trimble's in uniform. Even on nights when the team doesn't have its A-game, Trimble can bail it out by hitting big shots and getting to the line, as he did to hold off Connecticut December 8.

The Terps now have a long stretch of games that should be winnable on paper. A January 23 showdown at Michigan State looms as a titanic matchup for both teams—and for top-seed positioning.

Stock: Holding Steady

Iowa State Cyclones

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Georges Niang

Record: 9-1
AP Ranking: 11

The Iowa State Cyclones were a fixture in the top five this season until Saturday's upset loss to giant killers Northern Iowa. 

Something tells me they'll be back.

The Big 12 Conference will be a crucible this season, but the Cyclones appear to be up to the task. The inside-outside combination of power forward Georges Niang and point guard Monte Morris is one of the deadliest duos at this level of basketball.

Assuming they can put the upset behind them, they'll be good for a stretch run in the spring. For now, though, we have to downgrade them just a little.

Stock: Down

Kansas Jayhawks

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Bill Self

Record: 9-1
AP Ranking: 2

The Jayhawks are .500 against opponents that were ranked when Kansas played them. Good thing for Kansas, then, that it has only played two such games thus far.

But that's OK for now. It's not mind-blowing, but the Jayhawks are going pretty fast compared with some of the other teams that are playing tougher games and sliding off the road. Suddenly a schedule packed with Holy Crosses and Montanas doesn't look too shabby. 

With Bill Self at the helm and their five best players all scoring in double figures, Kansas will be there when the snow melts, just like they always are.

Stock: Up

Duke Blue Devils

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Grayson Allen (left)

Record: 9-2
AP Ranking: 15

It's not often you see the Duke Blue Devils outside the top 10. And yet, here they are.

In this humble scribe's opinion, there's not a great deal of shame in losing by two points in overtime (and on a neutral court, no less) to a very good Utah squad. 

Duke's real loss lately is center Amile Jefferson, who is out indefinitely with an injured foot. That leaves wiry freshman Brandon Ingram to play out of position underneath until Jefferson returns or fellow freshman Chase Jeter gets the hang of big-time college ball.

“There are only so many lifeboats on the ship,” said coach Mike Krzyzewski after the Utah loss, according to Laura Keeley of The News & Observer. “You don’t have a choice. So, what would be your suggestion as an alternative life boat?”

It's getting a little snippy down there in Durham. Add in an early-season loss to Kentucky that's looking worse by the week, and the Devils may have some work to do after the holidays.

Stock: Down 

Michigan State Spartans

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Denzel Valentine (center) celebrates another Michigan State win.

Record: 12-0
AP Ranking: 1

There's no question about the nation's best team and top overall seed as we pull into the holiday rest stop.

The Michigan State Spartans only sit 211th nationally in strength of schedule (per KenPom), but they passed their two big tests in Kansas and Louisville.

One of the team's potential weaknesses is also its biggest strength. Senior guard Denzel Valentine leads the Spartans in points (18.5), assists (7.1), rebounds (8.3), steals (1.0) and minutes (30.6) per game. As Valentine goes, so goes Michigan State. If he has an off night, it's an off night for all of East Lansing. His recent injury is not good news, but the silver lining is that he shouldn't miss many big games.

Barring that, Valentine hasn't veered off track yet (although that Florida game is on the borderline), and until or unless he does, this is your leader in the clubhouse.

Stock: Up