Is This Really the 'Year of the Injury' in the NFL?

Does it feel as though nobody can stay healthy this year? It seems like NFL players have been dropping like flies, crippling rosters in popular football destinations like New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. 

That has a lot of onlookers buzzing that this might be the "year of the injury," but the reality with such assessments is we may be prisoners of the present.

Has there really been a spike in injuries? Let's break it down.

No Marked Injury Increase

According to Nathan Currier, who does an excellent job tracking such things at ManGamesLost.com, 2,963 games were missed due to injury during the first 12 weeks of the 2015 regular season. That translates to 92.6 players per team, with Currier yet to crunch the Week 13 numbers. 

These things are hard to predict, but the per-team total rose by 14.3 in Week 12. In other words, your average team had 14 players on injured reserve, on PUP or otherwise out of the lineup that week.

That total should be expected to rise as more injuries pile up during the final five weeks, but even if we liberally suggest that every team in the NFL gains one extra missed game due to injury on top of what's expected in each of those final five weeks, we'd still have a league-wide injury rate within range of recent totals. 

Brad Gagnon/Bleacher Report

The pace is based on the number of games accounted for and the number of games remaining, but that isn't realistic considering that IR totals rise as the season wears on. The 2015 projection is based on the assumption that teams continue to lose players at about the current rate between now and the end of the regular season. 

Regardless, as you can see, there has not been a spike in total injuries. 

Fewer Starters Getting Hurt

Let's stress quality over quantity and disregard reserves and special teamers, focusing instead on injuries to players who were listed as starters at the beginning of the year.

We tallied up the total number of starters who missed at least four games due to injury in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and compared those numbers to the first 13 weeks of the 2015 campaign, and again this season remains within range. 

Per our calculations using data from Pro-Football-Reference.com and OurLads.com, 107 starters have missed at least four of their team's first 12 games. Sounds like a lot, but 3.3 per team is actually about right. 

The season is exactly three-quarters complete, but that doesn't mean the aforementioned total of 107 should be expected to rise by 33 percent over the final four weeks. That's because although injury rates don't rise or fall significantly at various points in the season, fresh injuries that occur after Week 13 to players who have yet to miss time won't ever register. 

Analysis of 2012, 2013 and 2014 injury rates using the four-game rule indicates that only about 20 percent of a team's regular-season total is generated in the final four weeks. What that means is we should only expect that total of 107—or 3.3 per team—to rise to about 134—or 4.2 per team. 

Brad Gagnon/Bleacher Report

Pro Bowlers—Not All-Pros—Are Going Down

Now let's throw out ordinary starters as well, focusing only on stars. When we do that, we find that 15 reigning Pro Bowlers have missed at least four games this season. That's a little high, especially when you consider that said list still doesn't—but eventually will—include Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham and possibly New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

That means we'll almost certainly see more major injuries to Pro Bowlers this season than we did last season. But there's a good chance that total still falls short of Pro Bowler injury rates from 2012 and 2013, and there's a great chance fewer first-team All-Pros miss four-plus games due to injury this year than in each of the previous three seasons. 

Year	Pro Bowlers	All-Pros
2012	21	7
2013	24	7
2014	18	5
2015 (current)	15	3
2015 (pace)	19	4

The only reigning first-team All-Pros to miss four games this year are Pittsburgh Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell and Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant, although that group could still be joined by Gronkowski (who has missed one game and is week-to-week), Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly (who has missed three games,) New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revi (who has missed the last two games) and/or Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston (who sat out Week 13).

But for anyone who thinks this is the year of the injury because it feels like a lot of stars have fallen, take a look at 2013. That year, reigning first-team All-Pros Vince Wilfork, Geno Atkins, Charles Tillman, Mike Iupati, Ryan Clady and Aldon Smith all missed extended stretches, and a ridiculous 24 reigning Pro Bowlers were sidelined.

Even in 2012, we saw reigning All-Pros Gronkowski, Revis, Troy Polamalu, Charles Woodson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jason Peters and Carl Nicks go down, along with a total of 21 Pro Bowlers. 

The 2015 season simply hasn't been that bad. 

Fantasy Football Implications a Factor?

If it feels as though more players have been suffering major injuries this year than in the past, it might have something to do with the state of your fantasy football team. That's because nine of the 107 NFL starters who have missed at least four games this season are 2014 Pro Bowlers who play skill positions on offense. 

Player	Position	Team	Games missed
Jordy Nelson	WR	Packers	12
Tony Romo	QB	Cowboys	8
Arian Foster	RB	Texans	8
Jamaal Charles	RB	Chiefs	7
Le'Veon Bell	RB	Steelers	6
Dez Bryant	WR	Cowboys	5
Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	5
Marshawn Lynch	RB	Seahawks	5
Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Steelers	4

Soon to be added are Manning, Forsett and possibly Gronkowski. That would bring us to 12, which would equal the total from the last two seasons combined. 

That also means a total of four big-name quarterbacks on high-profile teams—Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Andrew Luck—plus Josh McCown of the Cleveland Browns will have missed at least four games.

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

By comparison, only four Pro Bowl skill-position players missed that much time last season, and only one was a quarterback—then-Philadelphia Eagle Nick Foles—while one was a wide receiver—the Cincinnati Bengals' A.J. Green. The other two—then-Browns tight end Jordan Cameron and Panthers running back Mike Tolbert—met the criteria on paper but not in our hearts.

So in this respect, 2015 has been a lot worse than 2014 as well as 2012—when only five skill-position Pro Bowlers and three starting quarterbacks missed extended stretches. But can we really say it's been significantly worse than 2013?

Two years ago, we saw eight Pro Bowl offensive skill-position players go down—including Gronkowski, Arian Foster, Julio Jones, Doug Martin and Reggie Wayne—and seven starting quarterbacks, including Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Sam Bradford—the other four were less-glamorous pivots Mark Sanchez, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden and Christian Ponder, none of whom still start in the league. 

Perception vs. Reality

It certainly feels as though there have been an increased number of officiating mistakes this season, but NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said last week on PFT Live with Mike Florio that officials are making about the same number of mistakes as in years past. 

As Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier noted, the difference might instead be a greater amplification of the mistakes officials are making. NFL television ratings continue to climb against all odds, and social media has a way of exaggerating every big play, every hilarious blunder, every bad call. 

Every injury. 

Throw in that we've seen quarterbacks—it's their game!—suffer significant injuries in football hotspots like Dallas, Pittsburgh, Denver and Indianapolis and it's no wonder this has felt like the year of the injury, even if the numbers indicate otherwise. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon