1 Player on Every NHL Team Most Likely to Regress in the 2015-16 Season
With more than two months in the books on the NHL season, it's safe to take a peek at which players off to promising starts may see their stats regress as early as the new year.
Candidates have to be doing fairly well. It's tough to predict regression among those who haven't done much so far this year. Factors that could come into play include age and health, personnel decisions in competitive situations or even simple line changes.
And fair warning: You'll see the words "shooting percentage" a lot as a good indicator of a potential slide. It's all about sustainability and playing the odds.
Taking all these things into account, I take a crack at predicting one player on every team who could regress in the 2015-16 season.
Click ahead to see who qualifies on your favorite team.
Anaheim Ducks: Frederik Andersen
1 of 30
Statistically speaking: 16 games played, 4-7-4 record, .914 save percentage, 2.54 goals-against average
His season so far: Frederik Andersen was the Anaheim Ducks' best player early in the season when superstars Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf were struggling to score. His numbers aren't outstanding, but he was getting almost literally no goal support to help his cause.
Why he'll regress: Regress? He might have already lost his job to John Gibson—the young starter-in-waiting who took advantage of a recent Andersen injury and has looked lights-out in his time between the pipes so far. Andersen is healthy again but taking a back seat while Gibson gets to continue to play while hot. The Ducks could look to trade Andersen to add to the roster elsewhere.
Arizona Coyotes: Anthony Duclair
2 of 30
Statistically speaking: 28 GP, eight goals, seven assists, 15 points, 33 shots, 24.2 shooting percentage
His season so far: Arizona Coyotes rookie Anthony Duclair started the year on the top line with fellow freshman Max Domi and Martin Hanzal and flourished early on. He's on pace for more than 20 goals and 40 points in his first full NHL campaign. He's third on the Coyotes in goals and fifth in points.
Why he'll regress: Not only is his shooting percentage extremely high, but he's been bounced around the lineup, spending time everywhere but the top unit with Domi, who was the catalyst in Duclair's hot start. Already the rookie wall seems to be hit for the 20-year-old, who has one point in his last seven games.
Boston Bruins: Loui Eriksson
3 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points, 48 shots, 22.9 save percentage
His season so far: Loui Eriksson is playing on a Bostons Bruins line with David Krejci and Matt Beleskey, and the trio has clicked to an unexpected degree. Krejci is playing at a career-high pace that could see him crack the 80-point mark for the first time. Eriksson is on pace for more than 70.
Why he'll regress: Eriksson has sustained a shooting percentage of 20 percent or more just once in his career, and that was back in 2008-09. The 30-year-old has clicked with Krejci, but both are playing well beyond their career averages, and at some point those numbers will likely even out.
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Buffalo Sabres: Rasmus Ristolainen
4 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, seven goals, 14 assists, 21 points, 75 shots, 9.3 shooting percentage
His season so far: Rasmus Ristolainen has carved out a big role on the Buffalo Sabres blue line this season, taking on a lot minutes as former Winnipeg Jets defenseman Zach Bogosian started the season on injured reserve. He's leading the Sabres in ice time per game.
Why he'll regress: With Bogosian back and power forward Evander Kane healthy, the power play has plenty of options in addition to Cody Franson and Ristonainen, so the latter's special teams time will get chewed up slightly. So too will his overall minutes. He'll remain in a big role as one of the team's top four defenders, but the numbers he's projecting at the moment will be hard to reach over a full season.
Calgary Flames: Sam Bennett
5 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, five goals, eight assists, 13 points, 41 shots, 12.2 shooting percentage
His season so far: After a slow start, Sam Bennett had a strong November with four goals and eight points. He clicked with Calgary Flames linemates Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik and is showing flashes of the potential that made him the fourth overall pick of the 2014 NHL draft.
Why he'll regress: The 19-year-old hasn't played a great deal of hockey in the past year after a major shoulder injury kept him out of more than half of last season—and that was at the major junior level. He plays with some grit but isn't very big or strong, and over the course of a full year, he could wear down physically. His linemates have changed as well, and the month of December hasn't been as productive thus far.
Carolina Hurricanes: Kris Versteeg
6 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, three goals, 13 assists, 16 points, 49 shots, 6.1 shooting percentage
His season so far: Kris Versteeg started the year with Carolina Hurricanes captain Eric Staal as a linemate, and the result was 10 points in his first dozen contests. He's now on a line with Riley Nash and Jeff Skinner, who are also talented scoring forwards.
Why he'll regress: The new trio isn't as electric as the Staal line, and Versteeg is putting up more goose eggs than earlier in the season. The gritty veteran is still only 29 but plays with an edge that exposes him to injury.
Chicago Blackhawks: Artem Anisimov
7 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games, 11 goals, seven assists, 18 points, 44 shots, 25.0 shooting percentage
His season so far: The Chicago Blackhawks' Artem Anisimov is enjoying his spot between rookie dynamo Artemi Panarin and the league's scoring leader, Patrick Kane. He is already halfway to his career-high goal total of 22, and at his current pace, he will break the 50-point mark for the first time in seven seasons in the NHL.
Why he'll regress: Reaching the 30-goal mark he's on pace for will be difficult considering both linemates take way more shots. So while his career point mark seems like a sure thing as long as he's healthy and remains on that unit, the shooting percentage is too high to sustain for a full season. He's scoring on a quarter of his shots at the moment.
Colorado Avalanche: Matt Duchene
8 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points, 74 shots, 20.3 shooting percentage.
His season so far: The Colorado Avalanche's Matt Duchene is back as an elite offensive threat. He's flirting with a point-per-game pace and has formed a powerful trio with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog.
Why he'll regress:Duchene is a great player, but is he a 60-goal scorer? Not likely considering he's never even cracked 30. His impressive shooting percentage will definitely dip, but he could still score 40 in light of his great start.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Scott Hartnell
9 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, 12 goals, nine assists, 21 points, 59 shots, 20.3 shooting percentage
His season so far: Scott Hartnell of the Columbus Blue Jackets is on pace for his first 30-goal season since 2012 and is enjoying playing alongside Ryan Johansen at even strength and on the power play.
Why he'll regress: The 33-year-old plays a style that isn't easy to sustain as he gets older. He relies on hard work and energy, and a lack of it earlier in December led to his first healthy scratch in years, courtesy of coach John Tortorella. He responded well, but that motivation tactic may only work once in a season.
Dallas Stars: Jamie Benn
10 of 30
Statistically speaking: 28 games played, 19 goals, 20 assists, 39 points, 83 shots, 22.9 shooting percentage
His season so far: Jamie Benn, the defending Art Ross Trophy winner, is back in contention for the scoring title. He's on pace for his first 50-goal season and on track to crack 110 points. Benn and Tyler Seguin are the most deadly duo on the ice in the league once again.
Why he'll regress: In the case of the Dallas Stars, a team absolutely loaded with talent, it's hard to pick someone who will take a step back this season. Based purely on the fact his current shooting percentage is 10 percent higher than the career mark he set last season, we're going with Benn over defenseman John Klingberg, who is playing massive minutes and racking up assists at a furious pace. No matter whom he's on the ice with, he has the potential to add more. Benn's goal scoring may slow down slightly.
Detroit Red Wings: Dylan Larkin
11 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, plus-20, 77 shots, 14.3 shooting percentage
His season so far: Rookie Dylan Larkin has been a welcome surprise for the Detroit Red Wings, who are embracing the youth movement and relying heavily on the 19-year-old. Larkin is playing alongside Henrik Zetterberg and leads the league in plus/minus. He's on pace to shatter last year's rookie-leader totals.
Why he'll regress: At the University of Michigan last year, Larkin played all of 35 games. He's nearly at that mark now at a level far beyond the college ranks. Others have made the jump with some success, including last year's Calder Trophy finalist Johnny Gaudreau, but if anyone on the team is going to hit a bit of a wall, it will be the youngster who is outplaying expectations.
Edmonton Oilers: Leon Draisaitl
12 of 30
Statistically speaking: 19 games played, nine goals, 13 assists, 22 points, 41 shots, 22.0 shooting percentage
His season so far: After the injury to Edmonton Oilers super rookie Connor McDavid in early November, the team turned to another young draft pick to help fill the hole. Leon Draisaitl has done more than enough to help alleviate the pain with more than a point per game so far, and there's little chance he'll be sent back to the minors again.
Why he'll regress: Draisaitl is 20 years old and coming off a season split between the NHL and his major junior club, the Kelowna Rockets. He's made a huge leap forward after a little seasoning in the AHL, but expecting him to maintain his level of play the rest of the way is a little premature. And either the return of McDavid or an injury to linemate Taylor Hall could derail his momentum.
Florida Panthers: Jaromir Jagr
13 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, nine goals, 12 assists, 21 points, 52 shots, 17.3 shooting percentage
His season so far: The Florida Panthers' Jaromir Jagr is playing some inspired hockey again, looking a little like the pre-KHL Jagr—or at least the Jagr of 2014.
Why he'll regress: He's 43 and hasn't had a shooting percentage this effective since 1997. His shot volume isn't high enough to sustain his current production, and if his play dips, he isn't surrounded by the kind of talent that can boost his numbers when he falters. He's the catalyst for his young teammates.
Los Angeles Kings: Milan Lucic
14 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, 10 goals, eight assists, 18 points, 43 shots, 23.3 shooting percentage
His season so far: Milan Lucic has found his groove thanks to chemistry with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli and is on pace to score 30 goals again—something he hasn't done since 2011.
Why he'll regress: When it comes to goals, the Los Angeles Kings can be streaky. Lucic has been shooting less per game than he did in all but the first three seasons of his NHL career but by far the highest shooting percentage. When that number comes down, the goal projection will dip back into the 20s.
Minnesota Wild: Ryan Suter
15 of 30
Statistically speaking: 26 games played, four goals, 17 assists, 21 points, 61 shots, 6.6 shooting percentage
His season so far: Ryan Suter is on pace for his best year offensively, projecting at 66 points while still earning the most ice time per game on average in the league.
Why he'll regress: The Minnesota Wild had been trying to keep Suter fresh by monitoring his ice time but realized it was too difficult to spread his minutes around, which could mean a dip in points as time takes its toll on his 30-year-old body.
Montreal Canadiens: Dale Weise
16 of 30
Statistically speaking: 30 games played, nine goals, six assists, 15 points, 44 shots, 13.8 shooting percentage
His season so far: Dale Weise has been one of the Montreal Canadiens' most unexpected producers offensively this season on a line with Tomas Fleischmann and David Desharnais. He's on pace for a career-best 25 goals and 40 points.
Why he'll regress: His production so far has been based on a decent shooting percentage and occasional ice time with Max Pacioretty on the top line and power play. But the even-strength time on the top line has diminished recently, and so too has Weise's scoring. He has a single assist in his past eight games, and the streakiness will prevent him from continuing his impressive early pace.
Nashville Predators: Roman Josi
17 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, seven goals, 15 assists, 22 points, 69 shots, 10.1 shooting percentage
His season so far: Roman Josi is on pace for his first 20-goal season and looks like he'll pass the career high he set last year and crack the 60-point mark as a defenseman. He leads the Nashville Predators in scoring.
Why he'll regress: Frankly, there aren't a lot of Preds performing at high levels this season outside of James Neal, Josi and Shea Weber. Josi is scoring at a pretty high clip for a defenseman, and the odds are he will hit a cold streak at some point and push his projected totals down a notch, allowing a forward to jump into the scoring lead.
New Jersey Devils: Adam Henrique
18 of 30
Statistically speaking: 28 games played, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, plus-10, 63 shots, 20.6 shooting percentage
His season so far: After back-to-back 43-point seasons, the New Jersey Devils' Adam Henrique is on pace for nearly 70 this season thanks in part to his chemistry with linemates Michael Cammalleri and Lee Stempniak—veterans who are having big years in their 30s.
Why he'll regress: A recent injury won't help his cause. A tangled collision with Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Matt Hunwick left Henrique with a lower-body ailment that's expected to keep him out at least a couple of games, according to NorthJersey.com's Tom Gulitti. But beyond that is the shooting percentage that's more than five percent higher than his career average.
New York Islanders: Kyle Okposo
19 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, six goals, 16 assists, 22 points, 57 shots, 10.5 shooting percentage
His season so far: Kyle Okposo is leading the New York Islanders in scoring and back on a line with his favorite teammate, John Tavares.
Why he'll regress: With his contract set to expire this summer, Okposo could be dealt away by the trade deadline. If he goes elsewhere, it will be difficult to imagine him joining a partner as elite as Tavares to help keep his numbers high.
New York Rangers: Oscar Lindberg
20 of 30
Statistically speaking: 29 games played, 10 goals, seven assists, 17 points, 56 shots, 17.9 shooting percentage
His season so far: New York Rangers rookie Oscar Lindberg is fourth among freshmen in points but is doing it while averaging the fewest minutes per game of the top dozen in the category.
Why he'll regress: The minutes pose a problem. His production based on how little he plays—averaging less than 13 minutes—is massive. It's hard to imagine he can keep making the most of every opportunity.
Ottawa Senators: Mike Hoffman
21 of 30
Statistically speaking: 25 games played, 15 goals, 12 assists, 27 points, 78 shots, 19.2 shooting percentage
His season so far: Mike Hoffman of the Ottawa Senators is tied for fourth in the league's race for the goal-scoring title and clicking with center Kyle Turris and left-winger Bobby Ryan.
Why he'll regress: His pace for almost 50 goals this season is a hard one to anticipate from the third-year player who is a bit of a late bloomer at 26. With Ryan and Hoffman both benefiting from the playmaking ability of Turris, there is a dependency on playing with the center. Jumping from 27 goals last year to 50 this season would be a massive leap forward, and the high shooting percentage is more than five percent higher than a year ago.
Philadelphia Flyers: Shayne Gostisbehere
22 of 30
Statistically speaking: 13 games played, four goals, four assists, eight points, 28 shots, 14.3 shooting percentage
His season so far: Defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere has played just half of the games so far but is already the Philadelphia Flyers' seventh-leading scorer. The 22-year-old is the go-to blueliner on the power play with four forwards and has five of his eight points on the man advantage.
Why he'll regress: Gostisbehere has a grand total of 15 NHL games under his belt, and the Flyers have other candidates capable of replacing him on the power play should his stick go cold—including Michael Del Zotto. If the rookie loses that ice time, his numbers will dip.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Marc-Andre Fleury
23 of 30
Statistically speaking: 23 games played, 13-9-1 record, .926 save percentage, 2.23 goals-against average
His season so far: Marc-Andre Fleury has been the Pittsburgh Penguins' most valuable player for a second straight season, making up for a lack of competitive spirit among the group of skaters in front of him. He has the eighth-best save percentage in the league and the fourth-most wins among starting netminders.
Why he'll regress: History suggests it will be so for the Flower. Fleury posted a .920 save percentage last year but tailed off down the stretch, losing nine of his last 13 contests and putting up percentages lower than his yearlong average in eight of them.
San Jose Sharks: Joel Ward
24 of 30
Statistically speaking: 28 games played, 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points, 48 shots, 20.8 shooting percentage
His season so far: On pace for a 30-goal season, summer free-agent signing Joel Ward is on track for career highs offensively at the age of 35.
Why he'll regress: He's averaging more than two minutes per game on the power play and almost a third of his production has come on the man advantage, which can be a volatile unit. If the San Jose Sharks go cold in that capacity, his numbers could dip. He's also proved to be streaky this season with a couple of strong stretches separated by a cold snap, during which he scored just two points in six games.
St. Louis Blues: Colton Parayko
25 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, five goals, 14 assists, 19 points,
His season so far: Rookie defender Colton Parayko is the St. Louis Blues' fifth-leading scorer. He forced his way onto the team in training camp and joined the top four when Kevin Shattenkirk was injured early in the season.
Why he'll regress: Shattenkirk is back and producing at a high level while snagging power-play time from the rookie. The 22-year-old Parayko hasn't cracked the 20-minute mark in a game since Nov. 14. Coincidentally, he has just three assists in that span of 10 games.
Tampa Bay Lightning: J.T. Brown
26 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, three goals, nine assists, 12 points, plus-11, 47 shots, 6.4 shooting percentage
His season so far: J.T. Brown leads the Tampa Bay Lightning in plus/minus and sits fourth in team scoring. He's filled in offensively for a couple of important injured players in Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson and, at 25, has proved capable of producing despite low minutes.
Why he'll regress: When the Lightning are fully healthy, Brown is a fourth-liner who isn't asked to make an impact on the scoresheet. He's capable of moving up the lineup, but those opportunities will come sporadically throughout the season. He is only averaging 11:44 of ice time.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Leo Komarov
27 of 30
Statistically speaking: 28 games played, 10 goals, six assists, 16 points, 54 shots, 18.5 shooting percentage
His season so far: Leo Komarov has been a staple on the top line with James van Riemsdyk and Nazem Kadri. Head coach Mike Babcock has lauded the Russian's work ethic, and Komarov has rewarded the Toronto Maple Leafs with solid production that puts him on pace for nearly 30 goals and 50 points.
Why he'll regress: The way Komarov plays the game leaves him open to injury, and he doesn't get a lot of power-play time with the top unit. He also has a high shooting percentage—nearly double what he achieved last season.
Vancouver Canucks: Jannik Hansen
28 of 30
Statistically speaking: 30 games played, eight goals, eight assists, 16 points, 52 shots, 15.4 shooting percentage
His season so far: Jannik Hansen is the latest member of the Vancouver Canucks to benefit from playing alongside the Sedin Twins with Brandon Sutter out for more than a month with injury.
Why he'll regress: The slot alongside the teams' most talented offensive players is a revolving door that always seems to feature new players when the Canucks are in need of a shakeup. And with the Canucks struggling in the past few weeks—aside from that top line—a shakeup could come any day now. Without the Twins, Hansen will produce much less offensively.
Washington Capitals: Evgeny Kuznetsov
29 of 30
Statistically speaking: 27 games played, eight goals, 19 assists, 27 points, plus-14, 57 shots, 14.0% shooting percentage
His season so far: Evgeny Kuznetsov began his season with Alex Ovechkin on the top line and even kept that spot for a while when Nicklas Backstrom returned from injury. He's already just 10 points shy of the career high he set last season.
Why he'll regress: He'll continue to put up points, especially on the power play, but take away Ovechkin at regular strength and your numbers are going to take a hit. Now Nicklas Backstrom has been reunited with Ovie, Kuznetsov has his work cut out to maintain his point-per-game pace.
Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck
30 of 30
Statistically speaking: Four games played, 4-0-0 record, .939 save percentage, 1.71 goals-against average
His season so far: Goaltending call-up Connor Hellebuyck won his first four NHL starts, giving up only a goal in each of the first three. He's made a strong first impression with the Winnipeg Jets and should earn more opportunities to impress.
Why he'll regress: When healthy, the Jets have two full-time goaltenders already in Ondrej Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson, and unless they're prepared to move one, there's no room for Hellebuyck just yet.
All stats via NHL.com unless otherwise noted.
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