Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Minnesota is starting to like its temporary home at TCF Bank Stadium, going 8-2 both straight up and against the spread over its last 10 games there. Seattle, meanwhile, is only 7-6 straight up and 5-7-1 against the spread over its last 13 road contests. In a key bout in the NFC playoff race, the Vikings host the Seahawks Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.5-22.2 Seahawks

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Seattle isn't quite the same team this season as it's been over the last couple, but it might be coming around, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread over its last five games after outlasting Pittsburgh last week 39-30 and covering as a three-point home favorite. The Seahawks trailed the Steelers late in the third quarter 21-14 but scored 25 points over the last 18 minutes, icing the game on quarterback Russell Wilson's fifth touchdown toss of the day, an 80-yard catch-and-run hookup with Doug Baldwin from a 3rd-and-10 situation.

On the day Seattle outrushed Pittsburgh 100 yards to 58 and made four picks, including one out of a Steelers fake field goal that led to the Seahawks' first touchdown.

Seattle is now outrushing opponents 144 yards per game to 93, and outrushing foes by 50 yards per game is usually a good way to cover spreads. At 6-5 the Seahawks are tied with Atlanta for the second NFC wild-card spot and own the tiebreaker.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikes bounced back from that deflating performance against Green Bay two weeks ago and picked up a nice road victory last week, beating the Falcons in Atlanta, 20-10. Minnesota took the lead on a short Adrian Peterson scoring run late in the first quarter and never trailed, later icing the victory on a 35-yard Peterson scoring bolt with four minutes left in the game.

On the day the Vikings outrushed the Falcons 191-116, and 46 of Atlanta's yards came on one play. Minnesota also won time of possession by almost seven minutes and had three takeaways (compared to Atlanta's one), picking off Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan twice in Vikings territory, once in the end zone.

Minnesota is now outrushing opponents 146-111 yards per game.

At 8-3 the Vikes lead the NFC North by a game over the second-place Packers.

Smart pick

As the spread on this game indicates, this one is tough to pick. Ultimately, though, Seattle will feel the absences of running back Marshawn Lynch and tight end Jimmy Graham. Also, the Seahawks are an iffy proposition on the road at the moment. The smart money here likes Minnesota.

Betting trends

The Vikings are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games at home in December.

The Vikings are 3-7 straight and against the spread in their last 10 games after winning as an underdog.

The Seahawks are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in their last six games in Week 13.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.