NFL Predictions Week 13: Odds, Predictions and Advice for Ideal Underdogs

Almost doesn't count, but a near upset is often enough to question everyone's perceived NFL knowledge.

The San Francisco 49ers nearly destroyed most survivors still standing in elimination pools, playing the Arizona Cardinals close during a narrow 19-13 defeat. Given the Cardinals' plus-126 point differential and the 49ers' NFL-worst minus-119 scoring margin, few onlookers could have foreseen Week 12's most lopsided matchup ending with a six-point discrepancy.

It's becoming increasingly difficult to peg upsets in a league with four great teams, a few OK squads and a giant center of mediocrity. Sure, the Baltimore Ravens could beat the Miami Dolphins, but would it stun anyone to see a bad team knock off another bad team? And would anyone really care?

If anything, most of Week 13's favorites deserve cushier odds. So instead of identifying feasible upsets in coin-flip games, let's dissect the biggest underdogs looking to somehow stun the world—or at least cover the spread.

Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	GB -3	27-20 GB
Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills	BUF -3	24-23 BUF
San Francisco 49ers	Chicago Bears	CHI -7.5	26-16 CHI
Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	CIN -7	28-14 CIN
Baltimore Ravens	Miami Dolphins	MIA -4	23-17 MIA
Seattle Seahawks	Minnesota Vikings	EV	23-17 SEA
New York Jets	New York Giants	NYJ -1	30-27 NYJ
Arizona Cardinals	St. Louis Rams	ARI -7	31-13 ARI
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -1	28-23 TB
Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	TEN -1	22-20 JAX
Kansas City Chiefs	Oakland Raiders	KC -2.5	27-21 KC
Denver Broncos	San Diego Chargers	DEN -4	23-20 DEN
Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	CAR -7.5	32-24 CAR
Philadelphia Eagles	New England Patriots	NE -10.5	30-20 NE
Indianapolis Colts	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -7	37-27 PIT
Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	WAS -4.5	24-16 WAS

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of Wednesday morning.

Biggest Underdogs

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots

Under normal circumstances, a 10.5-point spread wouldn't be nearly enough for the New England Patriots hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, who have relinquished 45 points in back-to-back weeks. With all due respect to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions, they don't have Tom Brady at quarterback.

At full strength, the Patriots would devour a Philadelphia secondary which surrendered five passing touchdowns each to Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford. But Brady is stuck in a slasher flick, watching his teammates fall one by one.

In a game without Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, the Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski after a hit to the knee. While the injury isn't as severe as initially feared, as he confirmed on Bleacher Report's Uninterrupted, the star tight end is "week-to-week" with no timetable:

With all of his trusted targets indisposed, Brady will have to turn Brandon LaFell into Randy Moss. It's not out of the question against the Eagles, who ranks last in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) to No. 1 wide receivers as of Week 11, per Football Outsiders. They likely didn't rise up the ledger after submitting three touchdowns to Calvin Johnson, single-covered by rookie cornerback Eric Rowe, on Thanksgiving. 

Even a damaged New England offense will produce points, but can a reeling Eagles offense keep up enough to cover the lofty spread?

Everyone calling for head coach Chip Kelly's job has conveniently forgot about him overseeing top-five offenses over his previous two years in charge. This season, however, Philadelphia has fallen to No. 12 in total offense while scoring 50 combined points over the last three games.

Filling in for Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez has accompanied four touchdowns with four interceptions. The Eagles have lost all three games without Bradford under center, which has erased the possibility of any controversy. Per the team's Twitter page, the incumbent starter will take his job back once he recovers from a shoulder injury:

Sanchez serves as an easy scapegoat, but he's not the problem. Along with a collapsing defense and worse-than-expected running game, neither quarterback is a particularly alluring option:

Player	GP	PASS YD	CMP %	YPA	TD	INT	QB RTG
Bradford	9	255.2	63.9	6.86	11	10	82.4
Sanchez	3	205.3	64.8	6.77	4	4	80.7

The Patriots are vulnerable right now, but the Eagles are ill-equipped to exploit those blemishes. Yet they attained their last two victories by a combined eight points and haven't scored more than 27 points since Oct. 30, so don't be surprised if they fall short of the sizable spread.

St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

For the second straight week, the Cardinals get a road game against an NFC West rival. Unlike the 49ers, however, the St. Louis Rams completed the upset when they last met.

On Oct. 4, St. Louis won a 24-22 game behind 146 rushing yards from Todd Gurley and three Nick Foles passing touchdowns. Those two months likely feel like two years for Rams fans, who have watched the former wild-card hopeful score 51 combined points over a four-game losing streak.

During that stretch, Gurley is averaging 3.1 yards per run due to no defense honoring St. Louis' NFL-worst passing offense. Since his three touchdowns against the Cardinals, Foles and Case Keenum have accrued three passing scores through seven games. Such futility is enough to drive any rusher mad, but Gurley kept his head up when speaking to ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner.

"That losing just brings out extra motivation," Gurley said. "Even though you're losing you have still got to play hard, still got to prepare the same. Just because everything doesn't look good down the road doesn't mean you can just give up."

Arizona, conversely, doesn't have the ground game to complement a superb passing attack. The team placed starting running back Chris Johnson, who gained 17 yards on a dozen carries against San Francisco, on the injured reserve with a fractured tibia:

The Cardinals will throw early and often against St. Louis' No. 8 passing defense. St. Louis also harnesses some mystical mojo against the NFC West, going 3-0 against the division and 1-7 versus everyone else. (Thank goodness for the Cleveland Browns.)  

This one smells fishy, but not even Gurley can overcome his team's abysmal quarterback play. Carson Palmer moved the ball well enough last time, amassing 352 yards, and he has enough weapons to handle a difficult matchup. San Francisco dented some cracks in Arizona's armor, but the Rams would be lucky to have Blaine Gabbert under center right now. 

Don't fall for the comfort of the division upset from the gritty home team trope. Trust reason rather than a tidy narrative and stay away from a deceptive underdog pick.