NFL Playoff Picture Week 13: Scenarios for AFC and NFC 2016 Postseason Matchups

We've arrived at the month of December, and whether or not the NFL playoff picture makes any sense, it's starting to take shape. 

Some divisions have already produced foregone conclusions. The Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots have the NFC South and AFC East, respectively, in sleeper holds, and their competition doesn't appear capable of breaking free. 

But other divisions around the league find themselves embroiled in abject parity after 12 weeks of action. The Washington Redskins, by virtue of their superior divisional record, are atop the NFC East standings at 5-6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles both in a position to overtake the lead any given week. And the Houston Texans, once left for dead, have charged to a 6-5 record and a spot in the playoff field if the season ended today. Only a tiebreaker separates Houston from the division-leading Indianapolis Colts and the immortal Matt Hasselbeck. 

In the next five weeks, some of the teams in this field will be replaced by those late-bloomers who ride December winning streaks into the playoffs. But, for now, these are the NFL's contenders. 

Especially in the case of the NFC, they're not exactly what we expected. 

AFC Playoff Picture

Seed	Team	Record	Divisional Round Matchup
1	New England Patriots	10-1	Bye
2	Cincinnati Bengals	9-2	Bye
3	Denver Broncos	9-2	vs. Texans
4	Indianapolis Colts	6-5	vs. Chiefs
5	Kansas City Chiefs	6-5	at Colts
6	Houston Texans	6-5	at Broncos

NFC Playoff Picture

Seed	Team	Record	Divisional Round Matchup
1	Carolina Panthers	11-0	Bye
2	Arizona Cardinals	9-2	Bye
3	Minnesota Vikings	8-3	vs. Seahawks
4	Washington Redskins	5-6	vs. Packers
5	Green Bay Packers	7-4	at Redskins
6	Seattle Seahawks	6-5	at Vikings

In the Hunt

AFC	NFC
7. New York Jets (6-5)	7. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)	8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
9. Oakland Raiders (5-6)	9. New York Giants (5-6)
10. Buffalo Bills (5-6)	10. Chicago Bears (5-6)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7)	11. St. Louis Rams (4-7)
12. Miami Dolphins (4-7)	12. Detroit Lions (4-7)
	13. Philadelphia Eagles (4-7)
	14. New Orleans Saints (4-7)

AFC Matchups

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Just as we all predicted at the beginning of the season, we could have a matchup between Brian Hoyer and Brock Osweiler in the playoffs. 

Four weeks ago, Houston had one foot in the grave following a 44-26 dismantlement at the hands of the Dolphins and the release of clinically tardy quarterback Ryan Mallett. Since then, the Texans have ripped off four consecutive victories. 

But Houston's winning streak has less to do with who's taking snaps and more to do with a defense that's snapping opposing offenses in half over its leg. ESPN's Tania Ganguli offered a collection of stats that pretty effectively sums up the unit's dominance:

"According to ESPN Stats and Info, since Week 8, the Texans defense ranks first in the league in points allowed per game, sack percentage (9.4), yards per dropback (4.3), third-down percentage (21.2), total QBR (23.3) and estimated points added per game (+12.2)."

But the Cadillac of 2015 Texans defense trivia has to be this stat. 

Whichever metric you choose to employ, it will tell you the Houston defense was lights-out last month. And if this matchup holds, it's not clear what quarterback the Broncos would send out to combat the resurgent Texans D. 

Peyton Manning's plantar fascia injury has sidelined him for two games, both of which the Broncos have won with Brock Osweiler under center. And with the playoffs five weeks away, it could take that long before Manning is ready to return as Denver's starter. 

Brock Osweiler has looked like a serviceable NFL quarterback in the first two starts of his career. He's thrown for 520 total yards with three touchdowns and just one interception on a tipped ball in his pair of starts and, most importantly, he's won both. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Some more devout Chiefs fans probably still wake up in a flop sweat after night terrors related to the last postseason meeting between these two teams. 

In the 2013-14 season, Andrew Luck's second in the league, the Colts erased a 28-point deficit en route to a 45-44 win and the second-largest comeback in playoff history. 

In that meeting, Indianapolis and Kansas City both brought healthy 11-5 records to the table. For that to be the case this time around, the two would have to win out for the rest of the season. Both are 6-5 in 2015, and both teams' biggest star has missed significant time due to injury. 

Luck is week-to-week for the Colts after missing four starts this season, but Jamaal Charles will miss the remainder of the Chiefs' season after tearing his ACL in October. 

Barring further injury and despite the unfathomable 4-0 record compiled by Hasselbeck in relief, Luck would return to the starting role for a potential Indianapolis playoff run according to head coach Chuck Pagano (via ESPN's Mike Wells). 

"Andrew is our starting quarterback," Pagano said. "When he's healthy, he's 100 percent healthy, and the doctors and trainers say he's ready to roll, he's going to be under center."

Luck is 3-0 against Kansas City in his career, but their last meeting was that infamous comeback he engineered in January 2014. 

Both of these teams are in danger of falling out of the playoff race, but if the matchup holds, it would be an appropriate revenge opportunity for the Chiefs. 

NFC Matchups

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

If the season ended today, the Seahawks defense and their two straight NFC titles would have to go through Minneapolis in the dead of winter. 

Despite the Vikings' recent head-to-head loss to the Packers, Minnesota has taken full advantage of Green Bay's recent misfortunes to secure a spot atop the NFC North. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are watching the Cardinals run away with the NFC West. That's how we find ourselves in this bizarre scenario in which the two-time defending conference champs must hit the road in the divisional round to face a team whose mere presence in the playoff picture comes as a surprise to most. 

But we don't have to wait until January to see how this matchup might play out, because the two sides meet this Sunday in Minnesota.

Seattle opens as a one-point favorite, according to Odds Shark. 

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

As strange as a Seahawks trip to Minnesota in the playoffs would be, it's tame next to the possibility of Washington hosting the Packers in the postseason. 

At the moment, it's the Redskins' turn to lead the NFC East. And that means they get to host a playoff game that would, if the season ended today, just so happen to be against a team that many picked to reach Super Bowl 50 when the year began. 

The latest performance from each team's starting quarterback matches the lunacy of the potential matchup itself. Kirk Cousins led Washington to the top of the division last week with a 302-yard, one touchdown outing that earned him a 114.4 quarterback rating. Aaron Rodgers continued to look like someone not named Aaron Rodgers, throwing for 202 yards, a touchdown and a pick with a 62.4 rating in last week's loss to the Bears. 

The NFC East could, and probably will, have a different leader or two in the next five weeks before the playoff field is set. But it might not require a record at or above .500 to take the crown in the end. 

If Rodgers puts his struggles behind him, the winner of that division should be a sacrificial lamb for the Packers as they advance to the next round. But if the reigning MVP continues to be inconsistent, this could be a situation reminiscent of the 2011 playoff game in which a 7-9 Seahawks team upset the defending Super Bowl-champion Saints. 

Trending Up

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

AFC: New York Jets

The Jets lost four of their last five games before picking up a win over the Dolphins in Week 12. But among an AFC field that might be actively trying not to crack into the playoff picture, that qualifies as the most dramatic upward trend in the conference. 

Aside from Oakland, New York is the only AFC team in the above "In the Hunt" field that earned a win last weekend. And the performance turned in by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, combined with the Jets' favorable remaining schedule, gives them the best chance to disrupt the current wild-card picture. 

Fitzpatrick threw four touchdowns against the Dolphins on Sunday, his highest total of the season. He'll have the chance to follow up that performance with games against the Giants, the Titans, the Cowboys, the Patriots and the Bills.

With one notable exception, that schedule is composed of sub-.500 teams. Therefore, New York is in prime position to make a run late in the season. 

NFC: Chicago Bears

Chicago recently took advantage of a floundering Green Bay team that had lost three of its last four games heading into Thursday's meeting. But the evidence to support the Bears' claim for relevancy existed even before the win over their division rivals. 

Chicago came one point shy of a three-game winning streak after falling 17-16 to a Broncos team that turned around and beat the previously undefeated Patriots the next week. Before that, the Bears had won two games in a row, including a 37-13 housing of the Rams. 

In the coming weeks, Chicago has a fantastic opportunity to expand on its recent success, with games against the 49ers, the Redskins, the Vikings, the Buccaneers and the Lions making up the remainder of its schedule. 

Trending Down

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

AFC: Miami Dolphins

That new-head-coach smell has officially worn off in Miami. Dan Campbell won his first two games after taking over in an interim role, but the Dolphins have lost four of their last five games following that streak. 

Nobody appears more displeased with Miami's nosedive than Ndamukong Suh, who is reportedly of the opinion that most of his teammates don't deserve to share a field with him, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport (h/t NFL.coms Kevin Patra). 

The Dolphins have all but eliminated themselves from contention in recent weeks, and they're showing no signs of stopping the skid anytime soon. 

NFC: Atlanta Falcons

For five weeks, the Falcons fooled us all into thinking they were Super Bowl contenders. But the jig is way past up. 

Atlanta has gone 1-5 since starting the season 5-0, and it still has two meetings with the unbeaten Panthers remaining on its schedule. In all likelihood, Matt Ryan and company will have to wait at least one more year before returning to the playoffs. 

*All stats courtesy of NFL.com