NFL Picks Week 12: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over/Under Lines

The NFL has been as unpredictable this season as any in recent memory. Parity is a persistent theme in pro football, but it's getting especially ridiculous right now.

Part of that has to do with how well the elite have been playing. The New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers enter Week 12 with perfect 10-0 records—and yet with six games remaining, so many teams still have playoff hopes alive.

Think about it this way: In the AFC, there are five teams with a 5-5 record, with the AFC South title still very much up for grabs and the Pittsburgh Steelers precariously hovering above everyone else at 6-4 in the wild-card race.

A similar phenomenon is unfolding in the NFC. About every team still has a shot at the title in the conference's East cluster, currently led by the 5-5 New York Giants.

Five NFC teams linger at 4-6. Although that's a two full games behind the Atlanta Falcons for the sixth playoff seed at present, the Falcons are fading after a fast start, losing four of their last five—all to opponents with non-winning records.

After winning last year's pick pool for friendly bragging rights, yours truly has had a nightmarish time picking games in 2015.

This article is a merciful reprieve—'tis that Thanksgiving time of year, after all—and a means of delegation. More-competent-this-year folks will bear the burden of picking these conundrum-filled contests.

Spreads are listed below, but bear in mind here that the experts' predictions are straight-up picks. What follows is a breakdown and preview of the best game on tap for Week 12.

Game of the Week Breakdown

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Thursday, Nov. 26	Line	Over/Under	Mike Freeman, B/R	Matt Miller, B/R	Chris Mortensen, ESPN	Gordon McGuinness, Pro Football Focus
Sunday, Nov. 29	Line	Over/Under	Mike Freeman, B/R	Matt Miller, B/R	Chris Mortensen, ESPN	Gordon McGuinness, Pro Football Focus
Monday, Nov. 30	Line	Over/Under	Mike Freeman, B/R	Matt Miller, B/R	Chris Mortensen, ESPN	Gordon McGuinness, Pro Football Focus
Philadelphia at Detroit	Lions -2.5	45.5	Lions	Lions	Eagles	Lions
Carolina at Dallas	Cowboys -1.5	45.5	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Cowboys
Chicago at Green Bay	Packers -8.5	45	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
Oakland at Tennessee	PICK	44	Raiders	Raiders	Titans	Titans
Buffalo at Kansas City	Chiefs -7	41.5	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Tampa Bay at Indianapolis	Colts -3	46	Colts	Colts	Buccaneers	Colts
New York Giants at Washington	Giants -2.5	47	Giants	Giants	Giants	Redskins
New Orleans at Houston	Texans -3	47.5	Saints	Texans	Texans	Texans
Minnesota at Atlanta	PICK	45.5	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Falcons
St. Louis at Cincinnati	Bengals -10	42	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
San Diego at Jacksonville	Jaguars -4	46.5	Chargers	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars
Miami at New York Jets	Jets -3	42.5	Dolphins	Jets	Jets	Jets
Arizona at San Francisco	Cardinals -11.5	44.5	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals
Pittsburgh at Seattle	Seahawks -3.5	46	Steelers	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
New England at Denver	Patriots -2.5	43.5	Patriots	Patriots	Broncos	Patriots
Baltimore at Cleveland	Browns -2.5	41	Browns	Ravens	Browns	Browns

With Peyton Manning out of the lineup for the Broncos in what would have been yet another showdown with legendary quarterback counterpart Tom Brady, Denver turns to Brock Osweiler under center for the second straight game.

The fluidity of the Broncos' rushing attack looked far improved with Osweiler lining up under center in Week 11's 17-15 victory over the Chicago Bears. Denver racked up 170 yards rushing, as Osweiler acquitted himself well in his starting debut in going 20-of-27 passing for 250 yards and two scores.

ESPN Stats & Info noted the significance of the 25-year-old's proficiency:

Brady struggled against the exotic tactics deployed by the Buffalo Bills defense in his last outing but found a way to keep the Pats perfect in a 20-13 win. He has another tough task, entering a hostile environment against an even better opponent that fields the NFL's No. 2 scoring defense.

The legendary QB articulated the steep challenge ahead, per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss:

The only team that's allowed fewer points this year is New England. Osweiler not only has the pressure of being opposite Brady, but also has a legitimately tough task on his hands.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is a masterful defensive schemer who'll be keen to capitalize on the Broncos signal-caller's inexperience. A deep, dynamic front seven will also make it difficult for Denver to run the ball.

Cornerback Malcolm Butler has proven up to the task of taking on the opposition's best receiver, and he'll have to battle Demaryius Thomas, who boasts an incredible combination of size and speed. Butler also has All-Pro free safety Devin McCourty to help him over the top.

For all the attention the QBs will garner, the defenses will go a long way in determining this game. Because of the mix of blitzes New England can deploy thanks to athletes such as Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones, Osweiler may struggle in diagnosing what's going on and hesitate enough to make at least one key mistake.

On the other side, a Broncos pass rush spearheaded by Von Miller is going to do its best to get to Brady, who's being protected by the most banged-up offensive line in all of football.

Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is eager to try his hand at keeping the all-time great Brady off the scoreboard and help Denver protect its home turf:

Also worth noting that will help the cause for Phillips and Co: New England receiver Danny Amendola missed practice Wednesday, while Keshawn Martin participated on a limited basis, per the team's injury report. Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald reports wideout Aaron Dobson won't suit up Sunday due to a high ankle sprain.

There's a chance the Pats will only have Martin, Brandon LaFell, Chris Harper and typical special teams ace Matthew Slater to turn to in the passing game. This threatens to throw Brady's well-oiled offensive machine out of order.

Should a likely defensive struggle come down to the end, though, look for "Tom Terrific" to orchestrate an epic final drive and stun a silenced crowd at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.