NFL Predictions Week 12: Vegas Odds, Spreads and Picks for All Games

When setting weekly NFL betting lines this year, Vegas oddsmakers have constantly had to ask which team simply isn't as bad as its mediocre opponent.

A whopping 23 teams enter Week 12 with a .500 or losing record. As a result, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots represent the week's only showdown between two winning squads.

According to Odds Sharks' early odds, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders are among Sunday's favorites. The Indianapolis Colts are pegged to win behind a 40-year-old backup quarterback, and the reeling Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets still hold slight edges in their upcoming matchups.

In a year with a bunch of bad teams but no clear-cut laggards, anyone is capable of extinguishing a comparably weak foe. This leads to several tight spreads, save for a few anticipated blowouts.

Away	Home	Spread	O/U	Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles	Detroit Lions	Even	45	27-24 PHI
Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Even	46	26-20 CAR
Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	GB -10	47	34-23 GB
Minnesota Vikings	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -1	46	24-17 MIN
St. Louis Rams	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -10	42	27-17 CIN
New Orleans Saints	Houston Texans	HOU -3	47.5	31-24 HOU
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Indianapolis Colts	IND -3	47	23-16 TB
San Diego Chargers	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX -4	46.5	28-27 SD
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	-----	-----	20-17 KC
Miami Dolphins	New York Jets	NYJ -3.5	42.5	23-20 NYJ
Oakland Raiders	Tennessee Titans	OAK -1	44	27-20 OAK
New York Giants	Washington Redskins	NYG -1	46.5	30-24 NYG
Arizona Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	ARI -11.5	45	38-13 ARI
Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -4.5	44.5	24-23 SEA
New England Patriots	Denver Broncos	NE -3	45	27-17 NE
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	CLE -2.5	41.5	17-15 CLE

Arizona Cardinals (-11.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

There isn't a number high enough to comfortably pick the San Francisco 49ers beating the spread against the Arizona Cardinals, who demolished them during a 47-7 Week 3 victory.

In their first meeting, Arizona gained 446 total yards to San Francisco's 156. Blaine Gabbert can't play much worse than Colin Kaepernick, who completed nine passes and four to guys wearing the wrong uniform.

Separated by five games in the NFC West standings, these two adversaries are worlds apart. The Cardinals' plus-120 scoring margin ranks second behind the Patriots, and they're 6-1 with a 14.1-point margin of victory against teams with losing records.

Meanwhile, the 49ers' minus-113 differential rates last. They have already suffered six of their seven losses by 14 or more points, most recently falling 29-13 to the Seattle Seahawks. Along with enduring another defeat, they lost defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, as confirmed by the team's Twitter page:

They also rank last in opposing completion percentage (70.1) while surrendering the third-worst yards per pass attempt (8.3). The sky is the limit for Carson Palmer, who has amassed 1,054 passing yards and 11 touchdowns in Arizona's last three games, during which the club tallied 107 combined points. 

DATE	OPP	CMP-ATT	PASS YD	TD	INT
11/1	@ CLE	23-38	374	4	1
11/15	@ SEA	29-48	363	3	1
11/22	vs. CIN	20-31	317	4	2

Their 3-2 home record keeps the spread somewhat tame, but the 49ers are no match for the Cardinals.

New York Giants (-1) at Washington Redskins

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

The New York Giants have a 5-5 record to Washington's 4-6 clip. They hold a plus-20 point differential, and Washington holds a minus-32 mark. They came inches and a different definition of a catch short of knocking off New England, but their Week 12 opponent got ripped to shreds by the undefeated Carolina Panthers.

Also, the NFC East foes already played this year. Based on the above paragraph, it shouldn't surprise anyone with a poor memory that New York cruised to a 32-21 win, securing its fifth straight victory in the division rivalry. Those factors—and an extra week of rest and preparation while Washington got decimated by Carolina—barely offset Washington's home-field advantage in the early line.

The winner of this bouts escapes Week 12 leading the division. Despite squandering four losses each by four points or fewer, the Giants remain in first place with Jason Pierre-Paul back on the defensive line. Head coach Tom Coughlin sees an opportunity to exploit the poor grouping, per the team's Twitter account:

It's certainly not a foregone conclusion. Washington is 4-0 at FedEx Field, and Kirk Cousins has averaged 7.87 yards per pass attempt with a 75.7 completion percentage through those victories. He should enjoy a pleasant afternoon against the league's worst passing defense.

Washington's pass-prevention unit, however, is no juggernaut. Despite ranking No. 12 in yards allowed, it has relinquished an identical 7.7 yards per pass attempt and a 100.1 quarterback rating. Back in Week 3, Eli Manning went 23-of-32 for 279 yards and two scores.

Look for Big Blue to build on a promising showcase against New England and maintain its division lead.

Houston Texans (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Sorry, T.J. Yates. The reserve quarterback will narrowly miss the opportunity of a lifetime to face the New Orleans Saints, who made Cousins look like a better Tom Brady two weeks ago. On Monday afternoon, courtesy of ESPN's Adam Schefter, head coach Bill O'Brien said Brian Hoyer will return in Week 12: 

In seven games, Hoyer produced 1,704 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. He now wins the lottery by opposing a unit allowing 8.9 yards per pass attempt and a 116.6 passer rating. DeAndre Hopkins, who caught a 61-yard touchdown from Yates covered by Darrelle Revis, must be salivating at the matchup ahead. 

New Orleans' defensive futility led to the franchise firing defensive coordinator Rob Ryan before the bye. Making a guest spot on NFL Network's Sunday pregame coverage, the ousted coach mocked his poor performance:

The coaching change could light a fire under the atrocious defense, but a different guy on the sideline isn't enough to inspire confidence in a team that allowed 133 points in three games before the bye. 

On the other hand, Houston's defense has caught fire, relinquishing 29 total points over its three-game winning streak. J.J. Watt has piled up 5.5 sacks over the winning streak, upping his season tally to a league-best 11.5.

Facing a top-10 defense outside the Superdome is a dangerous proposition for Drew Brees. Since his defense affords him no margin for error, don't count on a road upset.