NFL Odds Week 11: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis

Minutes can be the difference between getting on the right side of a point spread. A half a point can be the difference between winning or pushing, or pushing and losing. Time is of the essence.

This is why, if you're betting on Sunday mornings, you need to take in all of the information in the market from in-week betting. Professional gamblers are good enough to take advantage of lines just before the public catches on. That means, on Sundays, there's diminished value in lines, but that doesn't mean there isn't any value.

To put a week's worth of information into perspective, we give you multiple layers of data. We present spread picks for every game and premier over-under selections. On top of that, we throw in weeklong line movement, game-day weather reports and up-to-date injury reports to give you the edge for the weekend.

The past two weeks, Vegas has beaten the public badly. Luckily, we've finished with a record of 13-12, even during a historically tough stretch. This weekend is where we hope to build momentum into the end of the season.

Spread Picks

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

As always, you can read my spread picks early on Fridays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

The spread: Denver @ Chicago (+3)

The pick: Chicago (+3)

The spread: Dallas @ Miami (-1)

The pick: Dallas (+1)

The spread: Oakland @ Detroit (PK)

The pick: Oakland (PK)

The spread: Indianapolis @ Atlanta (-6)

The pick: Indianapolis (+6)

The spread: St. Louis @ Baltimore (PK)

The pick: Baltimore (PK)

The spread: Washington @ Carolina (-7)

The pick: Carolina (-7)

The spread: New York Jets @ Houston (+2.5)

The pick: New York Jets (-2.5)

The spread: Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-5.5)

The pick: Philadelphia (-5.5)

The spread: Green Bay @ Minnesota (PK)

The pick: Minnesota (PK)

The spread: Kansas City @ San Diego (+3.5)

The pick: San Diego (+3.5)

The spread: San Francisco @ Seattle (-13.5)

The pick: San Francisco (+13.5)

The spread: Cincinnati @ Arizona (-5)

The pick: Cincinnati (+5)

The spread: Buffalo @ New England (-7.5)

The pick: Buffalo (+7.5)

Line Movement

Associated Press

Denver @ Chicago

Opened: Chicago (+3)

Current: Chicago (+1)

Dallas @ Miami

Opened: Miami (-1)

Current: Miami (+1)

Oakland @ Detroit

Opened: Detroit (PK)

Current: Detroit (PK)

Indianapolis @ Atlanta

Opened: Atlanta (-4)

Current: Atlanta (-5)

St. Louis @ Baltimore

Opened: Baltimore (PK)

Current: Baltimore (-2.5)

Washington @ Carolina

Opened: Carolina (-7.5)

Current: Carolina (-7)

New York Jets @ Houston

Opened: Houston (+2.5)

Current: Houston (+3)

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia

Opened: Philadelphia (-7)

Current: Philadelphia (-6)

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Opened: Minnesota (PK)

Current: Minnesota (-1)

Kansas City @ San Diego

Opened: San Diego (+3)

Current: San Diego (+3)

San Francisco @ Seattle

Opened: Seattle (-10)

Current: Seattle (-13)

Cincinnati @ Arizona

Opened: Arizona (-2.5)

Current: Arizona (-4.5)

Buffalo @ New England

Opened: New England (-7.5)

Current: New England (-7.5)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over-Under Picks

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

Washington vs. Carolina: Over 45 points

There's just too large of a difference of talent here not to expect the Carolina Panthers to score what they're slated to hit. The Panthers are favored by seven, which means this is a 26-19 game on paper. I can see Carolina scoring 40 Sunday. The Panthers are just a machine against below-average squads.

Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia: Under 44.5 points

The Eagles are six-point favorites, which means this is a 25-19 game, give or take a point, on paper. I'm struggling to see how Jameis Winston and Co. score 19 on the road against a tough Eagles defense. It's not like Mark Sanchez is going to set the world on fire, either, even against one of the NFL's weakest defenses.

Green Bay vs. Minnesota: Over 44 points

All of these spreads are in the same range this week. Vegas is just punting its totals on Sunday. The Vikings can control the game early, and so long as they score in the first, they should be able to run the ball all over the Green Bay Packers. Two hundred yards for Adrian Peterson isn't out of the question. Aaron Rodgers' garbage-time scoring will crack 44 points in the fourth quarter. No one thinks these teams will score more than three touchdowns?

Weather Reports

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Open stadium

Denver @ Chicago

High: 29 degrees

Low: 26 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SW 13 mph

Dallas @ Miami

High: 80 degrees

Low: 65 degrees

Description: Heavy thunderstorms

Precipitation: 80 percent

Wind: SW 14 mph

St. Louis @ Baltimore

High: 48 degrees

Low: 33 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: NW 13 mph

Washington @ Carolina

High: 52 degrees

Low: 26 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: N 12 mph

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia

High: 50 degrees

Low: 32 degrees

Description: Partly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: NW 13 mph

Green Bay @ Minnesota

High: 37 degrees

Low: 29 degrees

Description: Mostly cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: SSW 15 mph

Kansas City @ San Diego

High: 81 degrees

Low: 57 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: N 7 mph

San Francisco @ Seattle

High: 46 degrees

Low: 38 degrees

Description: Mostly sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: NNE 3 mph

Buffalo @ New England

High: 46 degrees

Low: 21 degrees

Description: Sunny/wind

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: W 23 mph

Retractable stadium

New York Jets @ Houston

High: 58 degrees

Low: 37 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: N 13 mph

Cincinnati @ Arizona

High: 79 degrees

Low: 50 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: ENE 10 mph

Dome stadium

Oakland @ Detroit

Indianapolis @ Atlanta

All data retrieved via Weather.com's five-day forecasts.

Injury Reports

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

Finally, Tony Romo is back for the Dallas Cowboys. They were one of the hottest teams in the league to start the season, but after losing their starting quarterback, they haven't won a single game. They've been backed by a strong defense since then, which has kept them in games, and with a top-five quarterback returning into the lineup—Romo is a huge improvement over Matt Cassel—they should look like contenders again.

The issue is timing. Is it too late for the Cowboys to make a playoff run in the NFC?

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle

Marshawn Lynch is listed as questionable for the second straight week by the Seattle Seahawks. He touched the ball eight times in a loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday Night Football last week. The Seahawks are almost two-touchdown favorites over the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday. If Lynch can't go, it's hard to imagine how the struggling Seattle offense can run the score up on anyone in the league.

Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia

Sam Bradford is out this week with both a shoulder and head issue. He had the Philadelphia Eagles starting hot against the Miami Dolphins last week before he went down, and then under Mark Sanchez, the Eagles managed to blow the game. Not a good look for Team Sanchez in Round 1 of 2015.

Brian Hoyer, QB, Houston

Brian Hoyer was injured in Houston's Monday Night Football victory against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals. His concussion is going to keep him out of this week's matchup against the New York Jets. That strong Jets defense is now slated to go against T.J. Yates, who is the third quarterback to start a game for the Texans, including Ryan Mallett, who is no longer with the team.