Week 11 NFL Picks: Predictions, Advice for Latest Vegas Spreads and Odds

We are past the halfway point of the NFL season, but the playoff picture is still not completely clear. Week 11 provides a chance for a lot of middling teams to make a move one way or the other.

Although being under .500 usually isn't ideal at this late stage, there are 11 teams currently 4-5 with plenty of opportunity to make up ground in their conference. Of course, it is important for these teams to win now if they want to make the playoffs. 

This opportunity mixed with desperation could create some exciting games throughout the weekend. Here is an early look at predictions for the entire slate for Week 11.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick
Tennessee Titans	30-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	TEN +3
Denver Broncos	13-16	Chicago Bears	CHI -1
Dallas Cowboys	20-21	Miami Dolphins	MIA PK
Oakland Raiders	27-21	Detroit Lions	OAK -2
Indianapolis Colts	17-20	Atlanta Falcons	IND +6
St. Louis Rams	23-17	Baltimore Ravens	STL +2
Washington Redskins	14-24	Carolina Panthers	CAR -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27-28	Philadelphia Eagles	TB +5.5
New York Jets	17-13	Houston Texans	NYJ -2.5
Kansas City Chiefs	20-10	San Diego Chargers	KC -3
Green Bay Packers	17-21	Minnesota Vikings	MIN PK
San Francisco 49ers	16-24	Seattle Seahawks	SF +12.5
Cincinnati Bengals	27-34	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -4.5
Buffalo Bills	20-31	New England Patriots	NE -7

Top Picks

Oakland Raiders (-2) at Detroit Lions

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

After beating the New York Jets and moving into the AFC playoff picture, the Oakland Raiders have lost two in a row to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings. However, the latest defeat might say more about how good the Vikings defense is rather than any negatives about the Raiders.

Oakland still has one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in Derek Carr and a lot of talent around him to help on both sides of the ball. Carr also explained the recent slide has not shaken the team's confidence, per Raiders.com:

"

We can play good football. It’s not always going to be pretty it’s not always going to be flashy and big plays and all those things sometimes we’re going to have to grind them out and kind of deal and we’re learning that as we grow. We’re very confident that there is not a lack of confidence from player to player, player to coach, none of that. That’s how I know we’re a good football team.

"

The Detroit Lions did slow down the Green Bay Packers offense, but surprisingly, they might have more trouble with the Raiders based on how well they can move the football.

On the other side of the ball, the Lions still have problems offensively despite a change at offensive coordinator. They managed just 1.7 yards per carry on 26 attempts against the Packers, while Matthew Stafford has at least one interception in seven of nine games this season. This has contributed to the third-worst scoring offense in football.

Although Calvin Johnson has a chance at a big game against a suspect secondary, it won't be enough to keep up on the scoreboard against the Raiders.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Diego Chargers

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Quarterback Philip Rivers is doing all he can offensively, but without balance from a run game, a healthy offensive line or trustworthy receiver targets, the San Diego Chargers have been limited. This will not change against the Kansas City Chiefs.  

The Chiefs embarrassed Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning last Sunday, limiting him to 35 yards on 5-of-20 passing with four interceptions before the future Hall of Famer was benched. This was not an accident, either, as this defense has held each of its last five opponents to fewer than 20 points.

Andy Benoit of Sports Illustrated noted the strong play against Denver:

The secondary was a weakness earlier in the year, but with Eric Berry apparently back to full strength, he has helped anchor a strong unit. This will prevent the Chargers from doing much of anything offensively.

With Charcandrick West filling in nicely for Jamaal Charles as an offensive playmaker alongside Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs offense will be able to do more than enough against a weak Chargers defense to pull out a road win. 

Carolina Panthers (-7) vs. Washington Redskins

Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

Not that it was a surprise, but the Carolina Panthers defense was as good as advertised in a 27-10 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. Marcus Mariota struggled to move the football and failed to score a touchdown after the first quarter.

The rookie quarterback was impressed by his opponent, per Jim Wyatt of TitansOnline.com:

While the Washington Redskins are coming off a great offensive effort against the New Orleans Saints, they are in for a rude awakening in Week 11. While the Saints have arguably the worst defense in football while allowing the most points per game, the Panthers have one of the best. They especially excel at throwing opposing quarterbacks off their game, allowing a league-low 69.1 passer rating.

Even though Kirk Cousins had a perfect 158.3 passer rating last game, it won't be nearly as good this time around with better coverage and less space for players to run after the catch.

With the Redskins also ranking 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, they will not be able to stop Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart and others in the dominant rushing attack. 

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