Fantasy Football Week 10: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

Week 10 of the fantasy football season has arrived, which means we're hitting the home stretch before the playoffs begin. It’s time to once again look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential and win out to secure a spot in the fantasy playoffs.

Player projections for the week's top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

At the quarterback position, the spotlight is now shining on Carolina Panthers stud Cam Newton. He’ll take on the Tennessee Titans in Week 10. What can you expect from the dual-threat quarterback?

At running back, St. Louis Rams rookie Todd Gurley is now the top dog, but he has competition from a man in Pittsburgh—and not the one we all expected at the beginning of the season (Le'Veon Bell). That’s right: DeAngelo Williams is the No. 2 fantasy running back heading into Week 10 of the 2015 season.

Another surprise name is in the top five at the wide receiver position: Jacksonville Jaguars second-year pro Allen Robinson. Find out why he’s set for a big game in Week 10 inside.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 10.

Quarterbacks: Cam Newton Will Continue to Roll in Week 10

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Cam Newton

Panthers quarterback and MVP candidate Cam Newton continues to impress, and he should keep on rolling in Week 10 against the Titans. Find out what the stats and metrics say about his Week 10 matchup below.

Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals has also exceeded expectations this season, and there’s no reason to doubt him at this point. He’s slotted as the No. 4 quarterback heading into Week 10.

We also have more on Jaguars quarterback and 2015 breakout player—from a fantasy perspective, that is—Blake Bortles. The stats and metrics say he should keep on rolling this week.

The Projections

1. Tom Brady (at NYG): 29-of-42, 335 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—25.4 fantasy points
2. Aaron Rodgers (vs. DET): 24-of-33, 330 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—25.2 fantasy points
3. Drew Brees (at WAS): 28-of-44, 327 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—23.1 fantasy points
4. Andy Dalton (vs. HOU): 22-of-35, 295 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—21.8 fantasy points
5. Cam Newton (at TEN): 21-of-31, 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 54 rushing yards—21.1 fantasy points

Stats to Know

New England Patriots star Tom Brady has been fantasy’s best quarterback so far this season, and he’s set for another huge game in Week 10 against the New York Giants, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com. Brady has tossed 22 touchdowns against just two interceptions, putting him on pace for a record-setting TD-INT ratio (a record he already owns).

Newton should have a solid day against Tennessee both through the air and on the ground. The Titans have given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in 2015, according to ESPN.com, and they are also one of seven teams to have given up at least two rushing scores to quarterbacks this year. That’s good news for Newton, who leads all quarterbacks in terms of rushing attempts.

Carson Palmer of the Arizona Cardinals has been a solid QB1 for fantasy players this season, but he’s only a fringe QB1 option in Week 10. That’s because he’s playing against the Seattle Seahawks, who have given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks so far this season, according to ESPN.com. Quarterbacks have tossed only six touchdowns against Seattle this year; only the St. Louis Rams have given up fewer passing scores (five).

What the Metrics Say

Another reason to be excited for Newton’s Week 10 tilt? He is currently scoring 0.66 fantasy points per dropback, per Pro Football Focus. That ties him with Tyrod Taylor for most among all quarterbacks. Newton has been as efficient as possible.

The average Bortles pass travels 10.9 yards in the air, according to Pro Football Focus, giving the Jaguars quarterback the third-highest average depth of target in the league. Bortles should rack up the yards against a poor Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 10.

It’s difficult to trust Matthew Stafford this week. His Detroit Lions will square off against the Green Bay Packers in Green Bay, and the Packers will likely bring the pressure as much as possible from several angles. They have four players with at least three sacks this season, per ESPN.com. That’s bad news for Stafford, who is accurate on only 58 percent of his passes when under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus, making him the fifth-least accurate passer in the league when under pressure.

Running Backs: DeMarco Murray Enters the Elite Ranks

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

DeMarco Murray

According to ESPN.com, four of the 11 worst teams in terms of stopping running backs from a fantasy perspective are on bye this week: the San Diego Chargers, the San Francisco 49ers, the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts. That means there are fewer matchups to exploit in Week 10, but there are still some worth highlighting.

For starters, DeAngelo Williams has more or less picked up where Le’Veon Bell dropped off for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Williams is the No. 2 back this week—a spot commonly held by Bell.

DeMarco Murray, the much-maligned running back of the Philadelphia Eagles, also finds himself in the top five this week.

The Projections

1. Todd Gurley (vs. CHI): 23 carries, 124 yards, 2 touchdowns; 3 receptions, 26 yards—27 fantasy points
2. DeAngelo Williams (vs. CLE): 25 carries, 154 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 39 yards—25.3 fantasy points
3. Adrian Peterson (at OAK): 22 carries, 119 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 28 yards—20.7 fantasy points
4. Mark Ingram (at WAS): 21 carries, 115 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 29 yards—20.4 fantasy points
5. DeMarco Murray (vs. MIA): 16 carries, 90 yards; 8 receptions, 54 yards, 1 touchdown—20.4 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin should continue to roll in Week 10 and is a strong RB1 option. He’ll be playing against the Dallas Cowboys, who have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in 2015, according to ESPN.com.

The Cleveland Browns have given up the most rushing yards to running backs this season, according to ESPN.com. Only two teams have given up over 1,000 yards on the ground in 2015: the San Diego Chargers and the Browns. Williams and the Steelers get a shot at the Browns next, which is why you can expect another huge game from Williams—especially considering Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, is out this week, meaning the Steelers will likely rely on the run even more than usual.

Murray ranks in the top five in part because of his excellent Week 10 matchup. He will square off against the Miami Dolphins, who have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this season, per ESPN.com. Murray has been particularly productive through the air in 2015, and the Dolphins have given up three receiving touchdowns to running backs this season, tied for most in the league among all defenses.

What the Metrics Say

Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart is more “elusive” than people give him credit for. According to Pro Football Focus, he forces an average of 0.22 missed tackles per attempt—10th-most in the league. That is more missed tackles per attempt than the likes of Bell (0.20), Jamaal Charles (0.20), Giovani Bernard (0.20), Todd Gurley (0.19) and others.

Gurley, however, is great at picking up yards after contact. The St. Louis Rams rookie sensation is averaging 2.95 yards after contact per attempt—third-most in the league.

Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount should be racking up the fantasy points now that he will be seeing more snaps with Dion Lewis out for the rest of the season. Blount has been one of the most efficient fantasy scorers this season, averaging an impressive 0.54 fantasy points per snap—second-most in the league behind Ryan Mathews (0.57).

Wide Receivers: A Monster Game from Mike Evans Is on the Horizon

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Mike Evans

Tampa Bay second-year wide receiver Mike Evans has had an up-and-down season, but the stats and metrics say he’s primed for a massive game in the coming weeks. Whether that comes in Week 10 is difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: A monster game from Evans is on the horizon, and he should be in starting lineups. We explain why below.

Jacksonville wide receiver Allen Robinson is perhaps the biggest surprise in the top five—not just this week but arguably all season.

But he deserves it. He has put up huge numbers on a fairly consistent basis this season, and his Week 10 matchup against the Ravens is as attractive as it gets. We have more on him below.

The Projections

1. Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. NE): 8 receptions, 132 yards, 2 touchdowns—25.2 fantasy points
2. DeAndre Hopkins (at CIN): 10 receptions, 127 yards, 2 touchdowns—24.7 fantasy points
3. A.J. Green (vs. HOU): 8 receptions, 172 yards, 1 touchdown—23.2 fantasy points
4. Julian Edelman (at NYG): 9 receptions, 93 yards, 1 touchdown—15.3 fantasy points
5. Allen Robinson (at BAL): 6 receptions, 87 yards, 1 touchdown—14.7 fantasy points

Stats to Know

The Ravens have given up a league-high 14 touchdowns to wide receivers so far this season and have ceded the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts (1,663), per ESPN.com. That bodes well for Robinson in Week 10 and is a major reason why he ranks in the top five this week.

The team that has given up the second-most yardage to wideouts this season is the Oakland Raiders, but, interestingly enough, they have given up only four passing touchdowns—third-fewest in the league. That’s textbook “bend but don’t break.”

The Houston Texans have been a slightly above-average team when it comes to stopping wideouts from scoring fantasy points, but they have given up 10 receiving touchdowns this season. That’s good news for Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, as it means he has a decent shot at finding the end zone in Week 10.

What the Metrics Say

For whatever reason—perhaps because the passes aren’t placed perfectly—none of the Denver Broncos receivers are gaining many yards after the catch. Only one (Emmanuel Sanders) ranks in the top 50 in terms of average yards gained after the catch—and he ranks 50th with 4.9 average RAC, per Pro Football Focus.

Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns is ranked 29th among wideouts with 56 targets this season, but despite his average volume, he’s currently ranked in the top 10 in terms of fantasy points scored. What’s his secret? He’s able to rack up the points on deep passes. Nearly one-third (30.4 percent) of his targets come on passes 20-plus yards down the field. He catches nearly half (47.1 percent) of such targets, giving him the third-best catch rate on deep passes in the league behind only Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. That’s good company.

Speaking of deep passes, it’s only a matter of time before Evans has an enormous game. Think 250 yards and two touchdowns. He’s already put together some solid games from a fantasy perspective, but drops have marred his overall production. With that said, he has had only five catchable passes on 17 deep targets this season (he has caught four of them for 153 yards and a touchdown).

Consider this: If just five more of those deep passes had been accurate and Evans kept the same catch rate (snagging 80 percent of catchable passes), he would likely have another 150 yards and a score to his name. That’s a full (great) game’s worth of untapped production. As the connection with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston grows, Evans’ ceiling will rapidly rise.

Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski Will Dominate in Week 10

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Rob Gronkowski

The top five at tight end this week is a rather boring story—Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Reed and Gary Barnidge. What else is new? Although the case could be made that Reed is a surprise in the top five, he shouldn’t be. The Washington Redskins tight end is elite when healthy.

A former elite tight end—Jacksonville pass-catcher Julius Thomas—has his work cut out for him if he wants to make it back into the top five anytime soon. Find out why below.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (at NYG): 9 receptions, 113 yards, 2 touchdowns—23.3 fantasy points
2. Greg Olsen (at TEN): 6 receptions, 92 yards, 1 touchdown—15.2 fantasy points
3. Tyler Eifert (vs. HOU): 4 receptions, 67 yards, 1 touchdown—12.7 fantasy points
4. Jordan Reed (vs. NO): 7 receptions, 66 yards, 1 touchdown—12.6 fantasy points
5. Gary Barnidge (at PIT): 3 receptions, 59 yards, 1 touchdown—11.9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

According to ESPN.com, the Giants have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends and the second-most yards to tight ends. Gronkowski should walk all over the Giants this week.

What should you make of New Orleans Saints tight end Ben Watson this week? He’s a hard one to explain, but he may not be TE1 material in Week 10, as he’ll be playing against the Redskins, who have given up only one receiving score to tight ends in 2015.

A tight end has scored at least one touchdown against every team this season except one: the Bengals. Not that you were going to start either of them anyway, but that’s not a good sign for Houston Texans tight ends C.J. Fiedorowicz and Garrett Graham.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Jacksonville tight end Julius Thomas is catching only 50 percent of the passes thrown his way despite having an average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.9.

For comparison, Barnidge has an aDOT of 10.6 this season but is catching 67 percent of the passes thrown his way. Thomas’ catch rate will have to improve before he’s worthy of a fantasy start.

Eifert is averaging 0.41 fantasy points per opportunity this season—with Pro Football Focus defining an “opportunity” as a rushing attempt or a pass route run. That gives Eifert the second-highest points per opportunity among all tight ends with more than 10 targets, slightly ahead of Gronkowski (0.38).

Kickers: Patriots-Giants Game Could Lead to a Lot of Kicker Points

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

Stephen Gostkowski

There’s nothing special about the top of the kicker rankings this week. Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots tops the list as he does every week. But it is noteworthy that Giants kicker Josh Brown is ranked so high despite playing against New England, a team that commonly makes the opposing team’s kicker useless. We have more on his situation below.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (at NYG): 3-of-3 FGs, 4-of-4 XPs—13 fantasy points
2. Brandon McManus (vs. KC): 3-of-3 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—12 fantasy points
3. Justin Tucker (vs. JAC): 3-of-3 FGs, 2-of-2 XPs—11 fantasy points
4. Mason Crosby (vs. DET): 2-of-2 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Josh Brown (vs. NE): 2-of-2 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—9 fantasy points 

Stats to Know

Start Minnesota Vikings kicker Blair Walsh with confidence this week. He’ll be playing against the Raiders, who have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing kickers so far this season, per ESPN.com.

No kicker has missed against the Rams in 2015—either extra points or field-goal attempts. Every other team in the league has seen a kicker miss at least a field-goal attempt or an extra point against it this year, per ESPN.com. With the Rams playing host to the Chicago Bears in Week 10 (meaning the game will be in a dome), that trend will likely continue, which means you can safely start Robbie Gould of the Bears this week.

Brown ranks in the top five again this week despite playing against the Patriots, who have given up the second-fewest fantasy point per game to opposing kickers, according to ESPN.com. It’s a tough matchup for Brown, but if the Giants can keep it close with the Patriots, he will have a solid game.

Defense and Special Teams: Green Bay Packers D/ST a Stream Option in Week 10

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

There are no major surprises in the top five this week among D/STs, although the Green Bay D/ST isn’t typically ranked so high. However, the Packers are playing against the turnover-prone Lions at home, so the matchup warrants it.

It seems almost unfair that three of the top D/STs in the league get such juicy matchups this week. The Broncos will play host to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Rams will welcome the Bears, and the Panthers will travel to Nashville to take on the Titans. All three are great plays this week (but you were starting them anyway).

The Projections

1. Denver Broncos (vs. KC): 14 points allowed, 1 interception, 2 fumble recoveries, 5 sacks
2. St. Louis Rams (vs. CHI): 20 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 3 sacks
3. Carolina Panthers (at TEN): 20 points allowed, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
4. Green Bay Packers (vs. DET): 24 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
5. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. HOU): 21 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 2 sacks

Stats to Know

The Panthers—the No. 3 D/ST unit this week—could have been ranked No. 1. That’s because they are playing the Titans, who have been the most generous team to D/ST units from a fantasy perspective this season, per ESPN.com.

The Pittsburgh D/ST is a top streaming option in Week 10. The Steelers will be playing against the Browns, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs this year, according to ESPN.com. Additionally, Johnny Manziel—who figures to start for the Browns in Week 10—is typically good for at least a pair of turnovers.

It may seem like a good matchup on paper given the history of the Raiders, but you might want to bench the Vikings D/ST this week. The Raiders are on a tear right now, and opposing D/STs have scored the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game when playing against Oakland in 2015, per ESPN.com.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Metrics to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.