Late-Season Stretch Is Time for Dolphins to See What Ryan Tannehill Is Made of

It's never too late to break up. 

The Miami Dolphins signed Ryan Tannehill this past offseason to a four-year contract extension worth $77 million in new money. It seems awfully soon to be discussing the possibility of a near-term future without Tannehill. 

That being said, with the Dolphins sitting two games below .500 and having already fired their head coach, changes are coming as certain as death and taxes at this point. These changes will set off a domino effect that might not break the Guinness World Record, but will be long and winding. 

Might general manager Dennis Hickey be a victim of Black Monday? Might Mike Tannenbaum? If the Dolphins make changes in the front office, new leadership might want a new head coach; what will come of interim head coach Dan Campbell? Is offensive coordinator Bill Lazor going to keep his job after this season?

And, in the end, all of these factors will lead to one more question: What happens to Tannehill?

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015
Comp	282	355	392	192
Att	484	588	590	299
Comp %	58.3	60.4	66.4	64.2
Yds	3294	3913	4045	2237
YPA	6.8	6.7	6.9	7.5
TD	12	24	27	13
INT	13	17	12	9
Rate	76.1	81.7	92.8	88.7
Sacked	35	58	46	23

The fourth-year quarterback spent the first three years of his career steadily improving. He has spent the fourth year showing signs of decline. Blame it on the offensive line, blame it on the play-calling, but with so much riding on the quarterback position, the Dolphins have to decide how much blame to put on Tannehill, and whether or not they think someone else could do a better job.

There are still eight games left for Tannehill to prove that the Dolphins didn't make a mistake in giving him his big contract, but the Dolphins might have to make such a determination for themselves, and it might not be based on whether the Dolphins make the postseason.

The question then becomes, how do you measure the development and the impact of the quarterback?

"I think it's a lot of things," Campbell said. "I mean certainly you want wins, but not everything is about the quarterback. You don't win and lose just because of the quarterback, certainly he's got a huge part in that, but I think you look at a little bit of everything aside from that. You look at how he handles the huddle, you look at the way he makes the downfield throws, you look at his tempo, when he's in the pocket what does he look like?

"To me, those are things Ryan is showing that he's becoming more comfortable with and he's continued to grow in those areas."

So, what about those areas?

His tempo has been good in and out of the huddle (Dolphins rank ninth in offensive tempo, according to Football Outsiders). He appears to have command of that huddle, but that's a hard trait to quantify.

Steven Senne/Associated Press

However, he is among the most pressured and most quickly pressured quarterbacks in the league (11th-highest pressure percentage, ninth-shortest time to sack). The Dolphins' protection problems have been among some of the worst in the league over the past three years, so it's hard to get a clean evaluation of his pocket presence. He looks like he's looking for pressure sometimes, but it's hard to blame him. 

Tannehill was sacked a lot in 2013 but was under pressure just 33.7 percent of the time (31st out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks). In 2014, however, he was pressured 38.4 percent of the time (11th-most out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks). 

His deep passing inaccuracy (33.3 percent accuracy ranks 28th out of 31 quarterbacks in 2015) is hardly a new symptom (37.7 percent in 2014, 33.3 percent in 2013), but he's also never had a true deep threat that can win one-on-one matchups. Mike Wallace was supposed to be that guy, but the two could never consistently connect on vertical routes. Rookie DeVante Parker was supposed to be that guy, but he's been dealing with a nagging foot injury all year.

Yet Bill Lazor cites deep passing as an area where Tannehill has improved:

"

I would say that last year when you looked at the chart of where we threw the ball, you'd like to be able to spread the field with how you throw it; short, sideline to sideline, deep and we've had a chance to get way more balls over 10 yards completed down the field. And that's about building trust with the quarterback and the receivers, and sometimes it just takes time. Obviously some of them are new. Some of them are returning guys. Sometimes it just takes time to rep it.

"

Lazor might have a vision of an offense that moves the ball slowly down the field on 10-play drives with 10-yard passes all the way down the field, but that's a hard style of offense to execute. 

These last eight games need to be a proving ground for Tannehill. The problem is, with his recent big-money deal, it might be hard to get rid of him right now if they decide he's not the man for them. 

The figures on Tannehill's contract are mostly arbitrary, though. The contract details should be broken down year-by-year in a way that is more reflective of how much money the Dolphins owe Tannehill each year against the salary cap. One of the big decision days is not too far off.

According to Over The Cap, "Tannehill's 2017 salary is guaranteed for injury, with $3.5 million becoming fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2016 league year and the balance becoming fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2017 league year."

The 2016 league year begins on March 15, 2016. By March 20, the Dolphins have to decide to move on from Tannehill, or they'll be on the books for $3.5 million of Tannehill's salary in 2017, regardless of what they do. That's in addition to the $11.6 million in dead money that would be kept on the books in 2016 if they designate him a post-June 1 cut. 

It becomes much more logical to cut Tannehill in 2017, if he hasn't picked up his play by that point—or if the Dolphins haven't made any changes at that point.

Let's keep this straight, though: The Dolphins can move on from Tannehill even if they don't want to cut him outright. The 2016 draft class has some talented quarterbacks available, and CBSSports.com has three prospects ranked in the top 12. At this rate, if the Dolphins finish with one of those picks, they could easily start building around a different quarterback. 

This is not to say that these are the moves they should make, but that these are the things their front office (whomever is in it) will have to discuss.

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes obtained via team news release.