Risks and Rewards in Trading for Patrick Marleau

San Jose Sharks winger Patrick Marleau has been at the centre of the NHL’s busy trade rumour industry, ever since a report Saturday night from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman on Hockey Night in Canada made it clear that his name is out there in talks. That report was followed up on Tuesday by CSN’s Kevin Kurz, who wrote that according to an NHL source, Marleau would be willing to accept a trade to the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings or New York Rangers.

Marleau has found himself the centre of trade rumours before, but as TSN’s Bob McKenzie tweeted on Tuesday, the difference this time is that it’s “likely” that Marleau himself is driving the process this time:

What are the risks and rewards for any team interested in acquiring Marleau?

The first problem is a practical one: contract terms. As McKenzie notes, Marleau owns a no-trade clause, which puts him in the driver’s seat on this. Other than the three teams he’s reportedly willing to accept as destinations, any other club would need to convince him to come, something he may not be willing to do.

Even if Marleau is willing to move, he also has what NHL Numbers reports as a $6.67 million cap hit for this season and next to digest. That’s not going to be easy for any team to take on midseason. The Ducks could conceivably do it (though they may have an internal cap lower than the league’s number), while the Rangers and Kings would both need to clear salary space.

The second problem is San Jose’s expected return, and that’s a substantial hurdle to clear. As of this writing, only the Arizona Coyotes stand between the Sharks and third place in the Pacific Division. Even with a resurgent Anaheim team nipping at its heels, the playoffs are a real possibility for San Jose. Trading Marleau would hurt the club’s chances, and trading him to the Ducks or Kings (both division rivals) would hurt them more.

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press/Associated Press

There’s an additional factor worth considering here, too. One might make a plausible argument that the Sharks should look at retooling or rebuilding, except that they don’t have a first-round pick in this summer’s draft. That was traded last summer in the deal that brought in goaltender Martin Jones from Boston.

The third problem is Marleau himself. He’s now 36 years old, and there are real signs of decline. According to war-on-ice.com, his five-on-five scoring rate last season was his worst since 2007-08. Moreover, his relative Corsi and relative scoring chance numbers fell below San Jose’s team average for the second year in a row last season.

The Sharks are worse at outshooting and out-chancing when Marleau’s on the ice than they are when he’s on the bench these days, and his scoring at even strength in 2014-15 was at a third-line level. Jay McClement and Sean Bergenheim were as likely to record a point in a minute of five-on-five play as Marleau was.

That’s a substantial list of negatives. To recap: Marleau will only go where he wants to go. His salary is so hefty that teams will struggle to afford him. He’s currently with a team that needs to win in the here-and-now and has its eye on the playoffs, not on being a deadline-seller. And he’s 36 years old with sharply declining scoring numbers.

There are some compensating virtues, though.

Marleau’s scoring rates at evens have been better this early season, and he had a monster year in 2013-14, which really wasn’t that long ago. Just because he’s declining as a scorer doesn’t mean he can’t still have a great year. He’s also still extremely valuable on the power play.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

As a player, he also checks off a lot of boxes. It’s easy to forget that he’s listed by NHL.com at 6’2” and 220 pounds. Combine that size with speed, and that’s a guy who fits in stylistically with scoring lines across the league; teams tend to fall all over themselves for big, fast guys who can score a bit. He also has a ton of experience, both regular-season and playoff, and has been part of two Canadian Olympic teams. Those are all big positives for a team contemplating a run this year.

That’s really what it’s going to come down to. Yes, Marleau may be pricey and he may be declining as a player, but he’s an experienced hand who can add size, speed, experience and just maybe higher-end offence to a team gearing up for a Cup run. It’s going to be hard to find that kind of talent at the trade deadline.