NFL Fantasy Football Week 9: Last-Minute Advice for Setting Your Roster

Fantasy free-agent lists are looking pretty scary these days. We can find superstar commodities such as the Kansas City Chiefs' Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster of the Houston Texans and, of course, all-world total yardage maven Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers available in nearly every league—as season-ending injuries have entirely shifted the tailback marketplace.

Bell is just the latest top back to go down, but he's the rare asset with a fully capable feature back as an understudy; Pittsburgh's DeAngelo Williams was second in the league in rushing (204 yards) and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season in place of a suspended Bell.

Suddenly, Williams is poised as not just a top-10 commodity at the position on this heavy bye week that sees six teams sitting out, but also as a viable RB1 asset for the rest of the season. Even as the visiting Oakland Raiders have been solid versus the run this season (allowing just 3.6 yards per carry), they've also ceded the second-most receptions to backs per game (7.4), opening up some dual-threat upside for Williams this Sunday.

This reminds us that equal amounts of depth, luck and progressive management will be required to win fantasy titles this winter. If you have low-ceiling players littering your bench, why not look ahead to next week for an ideal defensive matchup so you can beat your league to the waiver? We can also begin to consolidate depth with an eye on upgrading and fortifying rosters as we are just a month from the fantasy playoffs.

Please join us in discussing the key undervalued commodities such as streaming defenses and waiver-wire wonders, as well as the major injuries impacting this specific week's market, with an eye on preparing for Week 9. 

As always, feel free to post your lineup conundrums and questions for Week 9 in the comments below. 

Waiver-Wire Wonders for Week 9: Antonio Andrews on the Ascent

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We're 61 percent of the way into the 13-week fantasy football regular season entering the remainder of Week 9, so waiver pickings are slimmer than ever. But that won't stop us from promoting and projecting some waiver wonders for this weekend. In this section, we focus solely on players at each position we can find for free in more than half of ESPN fantasy football leagues. 

Quarterback Values

Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets: The Jacksonville Jaguars' patchwork secondary has afforded enemy arms a generous completion rate of 65.9 this season, 25th in the NFL, all while ceding 7.5 yards per attempt, 22nd in the league.

Jets quarterbacks have been sacked a league-low seven times on the season, while Fitzpatrick claims outside wideout weapons capable of regularly winning individual matchups. If the Jets' power running game gets derailed, this bearded waiver wonder could buoy daily lineups and help those in need on a heavy six-team bye week.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: As we mentioned, the widely available options aren't so rich at this stage of the year, especially during this aforementioned heavy bye week. Mariota is on the mend from an MCL injury and due to return to action in the Superdome this Sunday afternoon, per ESPN's Paul Kuharsky.

The New Orleans Saints have allowed 8.4 yards per attempt this season, third highest in football, while also allowing the fourth-most passing yards on the year. Mariota could prove efficient if the Titans can protect the pocket, especially as new interim head coach Mike Mularkey looks to create a run-first scheme that should cater well to upside play-action passes.

Running Back Bargains

Antonio Andrews, Tennessee Titans: In our waiver wire piece earlier this week, we found immense value in Andrews heading into a week with the potential for the rare 20-touch workload. With rookie tailback David Cobb still on the mend and second-year back Bishop Sankey proving ineffective and out of favor on the depth chart, Andrews is being talked up as the workhorse under Coach Mularkey, per Jim Wyatt of the team's website: 

"

"I think Antonio (Andrews) is the workhorse as we speak right now," Mularkey said on Wednesday. "As you've seen, Dexter (McCluster) has had his carries as a changeup for us. Bishop (Sankey), again, I know he hasn't had carries in the last couple of weeks, but we're trying. Based on the run scheme that we've had in these last couple of weeks, it hasn’t called upon his ability. But if we were going to force it, it would be to Antonio right now."

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Still available in nearly half of ESPN leagues and facing an exploitable New Orleans' Saints front this Sunday in the Superdome, Andrews is poised as the top waiver claim of next week. Get ahead of the curve and add him now.

Pierre Thomas, San Francisco 49ers: CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco reported earlier this week on the 49ers' potential to deploy a three-headed monster at running back. While that sounds so appetizing for fantasy fun, we'd only take our chances of this trio of tailbacks on Thomas, who could serve a meaningful passing role on a decimated offense. It's a deep and desperate sort of decision to deploy Thomas in a fantasy lineup, but the current landscape at the position calls for such measures. 

Waiver Wideouts

Tedd Ginn, Carolina Panthers: Similarly to Thomas of the 49ers, Ginn's nomination is a measure of a thin wideout market hit by injuries and several key passing offenses with the week off. It's worth noting Ginn is tied with Julian Edelman of the Patriots and Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions at 13th among wideouts with 17 targets over the past two weeks. Efficiency escapes Ginn's game, but big plays and a number of targets on a depleted depth charts offers some cheap upside for Week 9's prime-time showing vs. the Green Bay Packers. 

Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills: Found for free in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues, Woods offers a reasonable option for those in deeper point-per-reception (PPR) formats. This is especially true with Tyrod Taylor back behind center, as Taylor is second among qualified arms in completion percentage this season. 

Tight End Streamers

Jacob Tamme, Atlanta Falcons: The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 10.1 yards per reception and nearly 50 yards per game to opposing tight ends, offering Tamme some upside in the Bay on Sunday.

For streaming D/ST options, check out our "Streaming of Vegas" section.

Questionable Calls Week 9: T.Y. Hilton's Status in Doubt

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Any given fantasy slate can be defined by a rash of injuries across the must-start class of commodities. This week the majority of injury scenarios appear relatively minor. This is a welcome climate after last week's carnage across the running back and wideout positions.

Of truly must-start type commodities, we really only find the Colts' T.Y. Hilton in a legitimate game-time decision situation. Let's delve into the week's more influential injury scenarios. 

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are hosting the league's top defense by nearly every possible metric as the Denver Broncos come to town. Meanwhile, the Colts' top vertical threat is questionable for the conference contest, per ESPN's Mike Wells. Without a practice under his belt, it's difficult to imagine we see Hilton active, and we would seek other options even if he's available, especially given the late-afternoon timing of the game. 

DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: ESPN's John Keim reports Jackson is due to return to action in New England this Sunday, offering the team a sizable per-play boost in efficiency. Jackson is a boom-or-bust option at the position, but could see extended exposure in garbage time. 

Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills: Coach Rex Ryan defined Watkins' absence from Friday's practice as a "little hiccup" according to reports from ESPN's Mike Rodak. In that same ESPN report we learn Watkins is angling to play, telling reporters "I'll definitely be out there." We'll be eyeing Watkins' status and should be sure to hear something definitive in the hours before kickoff. Watkins has struggled to produce even when healthy this season and is thus a risk/reward flex play in most fantasy formats at this stage.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Bucs: ESPN's Andrew Astleford reports Jackson will miss this week's game with a knee injury, while "ASJ" is listed as questionable after participating in practice this week. If Seferian-Jenkins is active, he makes for an interesting play vs. a New York Giants defense allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL. 

Leonard Hankerson, Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons' speedy tertiary target will miss another outing with a hamstring injury, reports D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. We can expect tight end Jacob Tamme to see an uptick in attention. 

Predicting the Perfect Week 9 Fantasy Football Team

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For a bit of fun and possibly some help in identifying top daily matchups, let's try to predict the perfect fantasy football lineup for Week 9. We'll determine our top pick for each position, while also delving into the top tier at each position for top matchup information.

For those who already have several shares of these potentially successful statistical stars, this might be a fun read. For those who are facing several of these upside options, bank on the idea we might be wrong.

Quarterback: We're riding with this Tom Brady guy once again. The New England Patriots lead the league in points scored per drive at 3.05 and have scored a touchdown on a league-best 34.6 percent of their drives. Such rich efficiency affords Brady the game's highest combination of fantasy floor and ceiling. Given a matchup with a soft-serve secondary, we're guessing Brady posts the top score, again, among signal-callers.

This isn't to say Philip "One L" Rivers and his historic passing yardage pace don't pose as real threats to take the top spot this week. The Bears' similarly suspect secondary is far more exploitable than strong, raw allowance numbers suggest.

Meanwhile, is it crazy to suspect Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers' epic passing weapons can dominate an Oakland Raiders defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game (302.1) in the league? The New Orleans Saints' home offense has been white-hot of late, offering Drew Brees another big-game window.

Running Back: If we remove all 10 touchdowns from the Atlanta Falcons' Devonta Freeman this season, he'd still lead all NFL backs in fantasy points in PPR leagues by five points. Read that again. Even in standard scoring, without any reception rewards, Freeman would prove just two behind the Saints' Mark Ingram as the No. 2 back, even sans his 10 scores.

The 49ers have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season. As the all-purpose centerpiece on one of the league's most projectable offenses, Freeman takes top billing in our road to perfection. 

As the second top tailback, we'll ride the St. Louis Rams' rare rookie Todd Gurley. Daring, we know, but this is about keeping it perfect, not bold. With action hero highlights each week, Gurley could roll on a Minnesota Vikings' front seven missing middle linebacker Eric Kendricks on Sunday, per the team's website. 

As a dark horse candidate for the top spot among fantasy backs, could the Bills' LeSean McCoy thrive given 20-plus touches against an exploitable Miami Dolphins front? Or will the Tampa Bay Bucs' Doug Martin rumble all over a forgiving New York Giants front? 

Wide Receiver: The Oakland Raiders have allowed the second-most yards in the league at 302.1 per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers' passing game is poised to post a huge outing. Antonio Brown has his best friend back behind center—let the fantasy fun begin. The second perfect set of hands for Week 9 would be the Giants' Odell Beckham as he faces a suspect Bucs secondary ceding the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. 

The Falcons' Julio Jones is a weekly candidate for a big box score, while the Chicago Bears' Alshon Jeffery is once again looking like a dangerous, high-volume weapon. 

Tight End: The peerless Rob Gronkowski of the Pats is again our perfect candidate for the perfect fantasy outing; the Redskins have allowed the ninth-most yards per completion in the league.

We also love the Redskins' Jordan Reed on the other side of the field from "Gronk" this week. Reed is an endlessly talented target who could feast in garbage time as a heavy road dog in a game with a robust implied point total, per Odds Shark. 

D/ST: The Denver Broncos' defense has been brilliant, but for the top fantasy team we're going with the St. Louis Rams and their persistent pass rush and game secondary facing a conservative and limited Minnesota Vikings offense. Even on the road, the Falcons could feast on Blaine Gabbert and an inept 49ers offense. The Saints are a dark horse candidate in facing a Titans team allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses in ESPN leagues. 

Streaming of Vegas Week 9: Let the Desert Help on Defense

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

How can we leverage the point-projection system Vegas and offshore sports books produce each week in seeking streaming D/ST options? The foundation of the idea has us favoring favorites in games with point totals under 46.5. 

The results showed favorites in games below this threshold ended up in the top 10 in ESPN fantasy leagues 49 percent of the time. Here is a simple breakdown of the quadrants for this concept: 

• Favorites in games with a point total under 46.5: 49 percent in the top 10 of fantasy D/ST units.
• Favorites in games with a point total over 46.5: 38 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games with a point total under 46.5: 29 percent top-10 rate. 
• Underdogs in games over a point total over 46.5: 21 percent top-10 rate. 

We can also use these trends to help identify some potentially productive under-the-radar D/ST units for Week 8 of fantasy football competition. 

The New Orleans Saints are such heavy home favorites over the Tennessee Titans at minus-8, per Odds Shark, that the game's healthy 48-point implied total isn't so unattractive. The Saints have averaged four sacks per game since Week 6, second only to the Houston Texans over that span. The Titans have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season in ESPN leagues, having allowed four sacks per game, the most in the league. 

The Atlanta Falcons are still available in nearly a quarter of ESPN leagues and earn a nomination given a soft setup on the road against the 49ers' feeble and mistake-prone offense, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. The Falcons make for a wise daily fantasy play as well, given the Vegas trends align with them producing a top-10 outing.