Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 8: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups
Iffy fantasy football matchups make or break decisions each week.
It's never fun to bench a notable starter, but remember when Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson had that tough matchup against a strong Kansas City rush defense in Week 6? He posted six points.
There's a counterpoint to every example, though, such as New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady tying for the position high at 29 points in Week 7 against the New York Jets.
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It's time for owners to judge each unfavorable situation again for Week 8, so let's take a look.
QB
| Andy Dalton (at PIT) vs. Matt Ryan (vs. TB) | Andy Dalton |
| Aaron Rodgers (at DEN) vs. Cam Newton (vs. IND) | Aaron Rodgers |
| Russell Wilson (at DAL) vs. Eli Manning (at NO) | Eli Manning |
| Philip Rivers (at BAL) vs. Drew Brees (vs. NYG) | Philip Rivers |
| Carson Palmer (at CLE) vs. Matthew Stafford (at KC) | Carson Palmer |
Unfavorable Matchup to Start: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (at CAR)
There's a negative perception around Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck this year, but it's hard to complain from a fantasy standpoint.
When Luck's healthy, he's a QB1 without question, something that shouldn't change regardless of whether his team wins. Over his last two weeks alone, the Stanford product has six total passing scores and 23 or more points in each contest.
The Carolina Panthers may have allowed the second-fewest points to quarterbacks on average this year, but he's going to produce no matter what, as he spams the ball down the field in the hopes of keeping in contention.
It may not seem like it, but owners need to keep counting on Luck.
Unfavorable Matchup to Avoid: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (at DAL)
The situation is the same for Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks, but the outlook isn't as bright.
Despite being owned in 98.1 percent of leagues, Wilson has eclipsed the 15-point mark just twice this season. It's not a terrible floor, but it doesn't offer enough in the way of upside.
Wilson might have a hard time even reaching the floor in Week 8 on the road in Dallas. That unit ranks among the 10 teams allowing the fewest points to the position, and it has allowed just three quarterbacks to reach double digits (Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Brady).
Wilson isn't among that tier of fantasy quarterbacks this year, and owners should avoid him at all costs.
RB
| Devonta Freeman (vs. TB) vs. Doug Martin (at ATL) | Devonta Freeman |
| Matt Forte (vs. MIN) vs. Giovani Bernard (at PIT) | Matt Forte |
| Chris Ivory (at OAK) vs. Mark Ingram (vs. NYG) | Chris Ivory |
| Adrian Peterson (at CHI) vs. Justin Forsett (vs. SD) | Adrian Peterson |
| Le'Veon Bell (vs. CIN) vs. Danny Woodhead (at BAL) | Le'Veon Bell |
Unfavorable Matchup to Start: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT)
Folks may gravitate away from both Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard in the Cincinnati Bengals backfield, thanks to what looks like a dangerous committee situation.
But to date, the more versatile Bernard has more carries than Hill and is the featured back through the air, a strong sign going into Week 8 against Pittsburgh, despite the Steelers allowing the third-fewest points to backs.
Pass-catching backs are the ones who have hurt Pittsburgh all year, hence the four double-digit outings allowed to the backfields of New England (Dion Lewis), Baltimore (Justin Forsett), San Diego (Danny Woodhead) and Kansas City (Charcandrick West).
In other words, Bernard won't have an issue producing a solid outing against an exploitable defense, regardless of what the numbers suggest.
Unfavorable Matchup to Avoid: Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (vs. NYJ)
Latavius Murray of the Oakland Raiders is one of the league's most explosive dual-threat backs, hence his three outings of 14 or more points this year.
The problems, though, are the other three outings with seven or fewer points. Despite his potency on the ground and through the air, he looks like every bit of a matchup-based play.
A good example comes from his Week 5 performance of just four points against a strong Denver Broncos defense. This week figures to be a repeat against the New York Jets, the defense allowing the fewest points to backs this year, including just one touchdown surrendered.
Murray might make it two, but based on everything so far, it's not a risk owners should be willing to take.
WR
| DeAndre Hopkins (vs. TEN) vs. James Jones (at DEN) | DeAndre Hopkins |
| Julio Jones (vs. TB) vs. Keenan Allen (at BAL) | Julio Jones |
| Larry Fitzgerald (at CLE) vs. Brandon Marshall (at OAK) | Larry Fitzgerald |
| Odell Beckham Jr. (at NO) vs. John Brown (at CLE) | Odell Beckham Jr. |
| A.J. Green (at PIT) vs Steve Smith Sr. (vs. SD) | A.J. Green |
Unfavorable Matchup to Start: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at ATL)
Owners would be wise to not consider Mike Evans' 22-point outburst in Week 7 a fluke.
Still the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' top wideout, Evans looks fully healthy after a Week 6 bye and is primed for a big day on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.
Granted, the Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest points to wideouts this year. But with Tampa Bay's official website listing Vincent Jackson as doubtful for the contest, rookie Jameis Winston has to go somewhere with the football.
And Atlanta isn't immune to target monsters, such as Odell Beckham Jr. (20 points in Week 2) and DeAndre Hopkins (15 in Week 4). Evans ranks among those receivers in terms of ability and usage.
Unfavorable Matchup to Avoid: Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore Ravens (vs. SD)
What Steve Smith Sr. of the Baltimore Ravens continues to do at the age of 36 is incredible, but it doesn't make him a matchup-free start every week.
In reality, he's far from it, thanks to the miserable situation around him. For every good game this year (outbursts of 15, 30 and 19 points), there's a bad one in a tough situation (showings of one, two and seven points).
Last week, a strong Arizona Cardinals defense limited Smith to the seven-point tally. It's going to be a similar showing this week against the San Diego Chargers, the team allowing the sixth-fewest points to wideouts.
The San Diego defense holding Calvin Johnson and Randall Cobb to a combined six points this year is all that needs said.
TE
| Ladarius Green (at BAL) vs. Travis Kelce (vs. DET) | Travis Kelce |
| Tyler Eifert (at PIT) vs. Gary Barnidge (vs. ARI) | Tyler Eifert |
| Greg Olsen (vs. IND) vs. Jimmy Graham (at DAL) | Greg Olsen |
| Martellus Bennett (vs. MIN) vs. Jason Witten (vs. SEA) | Martellus Bennett |
| Richard Rodgers (at DEN) vs. Delanie Walker (at HOU) | Richard Rodgers |
Unfavorable Matchup to Start: Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns (vs. ARI)
Fantasy's second-highest scorer at tight end is Gary Barnidge of the Cleveland Browns.
It's tight end in a nutshell, folks.
Unpredictable each year, usage has Barnidge this high. He's caught six or more passes in four of his seven outings so far, going for double digits five times. He offers one of the best floors the position has to offer.
The Cardinals may allow the fewest points to tight ends, but Barnidge, at home, will hit his floor once again with the offense having nowhere else to go.
Unfavorable Matchup to Avoid: Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks (at DAL)
Like his quarterback, it's best to avoid tight end Jimmy Graham this week as the Seahawks travel to take on the Cowboys.
Graham has just three double-digit outings this year, with the four others coming at no more than three points apiece. He's simply not a big part of the run-first offense this year, a far cry from his days in New Orleans.
The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-fewest points to the position this year, and it's not a fluke. What was? The unit's one allowed touchdown and double-digit performance. Even New England's crop of tight ends couldn't muster more than six total points.
All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats as of Oct. 31. Statistics courtesy of ESPN. Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars on bye.
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