NFL Week 8 Picks: Expert Predictions and Advice for Latest Vegas Odds

The New England Patriots—surprise, surprise—throttled the Miami Dolphins 36-7 on Thursday night. After two dominant wins following the firing of coach Joe Philbin, the Dolphins looked like a team born anew under interim head coach Dan Campbell.

It wasn't crazy to think an upset was in the making with a short week and the Patriots coming off a tough win over the rival New York Jets. But then the game started, and the Patriots did their thing, with all the ferocity and inevitability of a great Mongol horde.

Rob Gronkowski rumbled to a 47-yard touchdown, then the Patriots forced a safety, the Dolphins offense never gained any traction and Tom Brady commanded everyone and everything with aplomb until the win was in hand.

The Patriots put together a performance worthy of their status as the best team in the league, but it doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the week will play out so predictably. 

Here's a roundup of some expert predictions from across the web. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Friday, October 30, at 7 a.m. ET. All expert picks are straight-up, not against the spread.

Matchup	Mike Freeman, B/R	Ron Jaworski, ESPN	Mike Garafolo, Fox Sports	Stephen White, SB Nation	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
DET vs. KC (-4)	KC	KC	KC	DET	DET
TB vs. ATL (-8)	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL
AZ (-7) vs. CLE	AZ	AZ	CLE	AZ	AZ
SF vs. STL (-9.5)	STL	STL	STL	STL	STL
NYG vs. NO (-3)	NO	NO	NYG	NO	NO
MIN vs. CHI (EVEN)	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	CHI
SD vs. BAL (-3)	SD	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL
CIN vs. PIT (EVEN)	CIN	CIN	PIT	CIN	CIN
TEN vs. HOU (n/a)	HOU	HOU	HOU	TEN	HOU
NYJ (-3) vs. OAK	NYJ	NYJ	OAK	NYJ	OAK
SEA (-7) vs. DAL	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA
GB (-2.5) vs. DEN	GB	GB	GB	DEN	DEN
IND vs. CAR (-7.5)	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR

Note: Predictions are from Bleacher Report, ESPN.com, CBS Sports, Fox Sports and SB Nation.

San Diego Will Cover Against Baltimore (-3)

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

It's easy to make a case for both San Diego and Baltimore as the two hardest-luck, snake-bitten teams in the NFL. San Diego is just 2-5 on the year, with four of those losses coming in one-possession games. The Chargers' 37-29 defeat against rival Oakland last week is a bit misleading, as the Raiders dominated the first 40 or so minutes of the game, but the fight back was impressive.

Baltimore is even worse at 1-6, and every single one of its losses has been by eight points or fewer. It's a down year for Joe Flacco, who's thrown nine touchdowns against eight interceptions. It doesn't help that he has little to work with in the passing game beyond Steve Smith Sr., who, when healthy, has bamboozled cornerbacks with regularity on his goodbye tour of a season. 

Lacking talent and depth at key positions, Flacco acknowledged that the Ravens can little afford to make mistakes, per the Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec: 

"

You can't go out there and make mistakes and you have to take advantage of every single drive. Every single play has huge weight in our game right now. Yeah, that definitely makes it a little tougher. That's just what we are right now. We have to adapt and become better because of it and we have to make those plays and we haven't been able to.

"

Part of the reason Flacco has looked subpar this season—despite being seventh in yards—is that the quarterbacks opposite him have performed so spectacularly. The Ravens secondary is the weak link on the team, allowing quarterbacks to throw 13 touchdowns against three interceptions this year on 8.4 yards per attempt, per ESPN.com.

San Diego's pass defense is only marginally better, but it at least has cornerback Jason Verrett, who has done well to shut down Antonio Brown and James Jones in recent weeks.

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Philip Rivers, who leads the league with 2,452 passing yards this year, is primed to take full advantage of the Ravens' charitable pass defense.

Keenan Allen is quickly establishing himself as one of the top possession receivers in the game, Ladarius Green is playing well in place of an injured Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead basically makes a real ground attack a luxury in San Diego with all the damage he does catching the ball out of the backfield.

The offensive line is also returning to full strength, with left tackle King Dunlap back from a concussion and center Chris Watt practicing in full this week, per Chargers.com.

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press/Associated Press

Baltimore will try to control this game by running Justin Forsett right into the teeth of San Diego's defense, which lacks serious bite against the run. The Chargers have allowed a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry, according to ESPN.com. That, combined with some mediocre secondary play, has them ranked 30th in defensive efficiency, per Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

If the Ravens do try to take control of the clock, mistakes cannot be made; Rivers has been excellent this season at leading the Bolts on long, clock-chewing scoring drives this year. Of course, Rivers himself has thrown seven picks on the year, just one less than Flacco, and running back Melvin Gordon has had issues with holding on to the ball.

The Bolts may look more to Woodhead and Branden Oliver to get their own running game going. However, it's not a requirement to cover the spread and/or win this game. Rivers needs only time and a little space to shred Baltimore's pass defense and deliver both bettors and Bolts fans the outcome they desire.

Tampa Bay Won't Get Within a Touchdown of Atlanta (-7)

It's been a bumpy couple of weeks for the Atlanta Falcons. In Week 6, they lost to the New Orleans Saints 31-21, then they barely edged out a 10-7 win over Tennessee the following week. Devonta Freeman is still churning out fantasy football dream games, but Matt Ryan has been fairly inconsistent as of late. 

Stretch	COMP/ATT	YDS per game	CMP %	AVG	TD	INT
First Four Games	96/143	300.5	67.1	8.41	6	2
Last Three Games	76/124	266.7	61.3	6.45	3	4

Luckily, there's a remedy coming Atlanta's way in the form of Tampa Bay, which has allowed at least 30 points in four of six games this year.

Now, the defense isn't totally at fault for the point profligacy—Jameis Winston has tossed a couple of pick-sixes this year, and the shaky offense has allowed other teams great field position—but it's one of the weaker units in the league. Per Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in DVOA. Quarterbacks have a combined 111.2 rating against the Bucs, per ESPN.com, making this a great opportunity for Ryan to get back on track.

This is all compounded by the fact Tampa Bay is coming off a heartbreaking 31-30 loss to Washington, a game in which Kirk Cousins threw for 317 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Tampa Bay was up 24-0 at one point in the first half, but it imploded down the stretch.

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press/Associated Press

Outside of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, Tampa Bay's defense lacks impact players. If Atlanta builds up a head of steam, it should have little trouble scoring at will. ProFootballTalk's Darin Gantt thinks Freeman—who leads the league in rushing and touchdowns—needs to be on the field as much as possible: 

"

Of course, they might even need to use him even more, such as a bizarre fourth-quarter sequence when he didn’t see the ball. They ran fullback Patrick DiMarco on third-and0-goal, and then Ryan’s fourth-down pass to tight end Jacob Tamme was broken up. With the way Freeman has been running, the Falcons might be better served in the future just handing it to the guy who keeps getting it done, and letting him do the rest.

"

The Bucs can take heart in the fact that Winston is coming off his two best performances of the season—throwing for a combined 506 yards, three touchdowns and no picks—and that Doug Martin is having a bit of a renaissance year, with three straight 100-yard games. 

Wide receiver Mike Evans believes Winston's play against the Redskins is indicative of the type of quarterback he can become.

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press/Associated Press

"He just shows the leader that he can be," Evans said, via ESPN.com's Andrew Astleford. "And he showed the talent that he has. He can be one of the best quarterbacks in the game. He showed that talent."

The Falcons defense should be up to the task of taking on a rookie quarterback, though. Per CBS Sports, Atlanta has allowed an average of just 19 points and 303.7 yards in its last three games. The Falcons are also seventh in the league with 12 takeaways this year—eight of those interceptions.

The pass rush is still an issue. The Falcons managed to take down Tennessee's Zach Mettenberger just once in Week 7. Creating pressure will be key to slowing Winston.

If the Falcons do manage to force Winston into a couple of mistakes and get Ryan comfortable early with short passes to Julio Jones and Roddy White, this should pan out as a double-digit win for the home side.