Breeders' Cup 2015 Post Positions: Odds and Predictions for Every Horse
The $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic will take place for the 32nd time on Saturday, and for the first time a Triple Crown winner is the headliner, as American Pharoah makes his final career start before being whisked away to the breeding shed.
In what many consider the most anticipated Breeders’ Cup race of all time, the Triple Crown winner faces nine foes who include several legitimate contenders, among them the brilliant mare Beholder, who is seeking to become just the second female to win the Classic.
Toss in older runners such as Grade 1 winners Tonalist and Honor Code, along with top three-year-olds such as Keen Ice, who is the only horse to beat American Pharoah this year, and this year’s Classic is going to be something to behold, whether you are just a fan or plan on hitting the betting windows.
Let’s look at the field for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in post position order, along with predictions on how each contender will finish.
Post 1: Tonalist
1 of 9
Morning-Line Odds: 6-1
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: John Velazquez
Is the 2014 Belmont Stakes winner just a fan of Belmont Park? Since graduating at Gulfstream Park in his second career start, the colt has won five graded stakes, and they have all come in New York at Belmont Park.
Fifth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, the four-year-old colt comes into this year’s edition as he did last year, off a victory in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He has finished behind Honor Code twice this year and has a third in the Grade 1 Whitney and a second in the Grade 1 Met Mile.
The colt has been consistent, earning triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last seven starts.
Steve Haskin of the Blood-Horse likes his chances: “Despite the minor concerns and questions I have regarding the scenario of the race and whether Johnny V will be able to put Tonalist in a position to win, I have to go with him as the value selection based on his having fewer question marks than the others and being the most consistently fast horse in the field.”
Prediction: The colt may finally prove that Belmont Park is not his only playground. He figures to be in the top three and has a legitimate shot to win if he gets some pace to run at.
Post 2: Keen Ice
2 of 9
Morning-Line Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Keen Ice has the distinction of being the only horse to defeat Triple Crown winner American Pharoah this year. The colt pulled off the upset in the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga, winning by three-quarters of a length at odds of 16-1.
American Pharoah did get the best of him in their three previous meetings. The closest margin came in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational where Keen Ice was second and lost by 2 ¼ lengths. He was no match in the first and third jewel of the Triple Crown.
Javier Castellano rode him to victory in the Travers but departs to stick with Honor Code, with Irad Ortiz Jr. picking up the mount. Ortiz is Belmont Park’s leading jockey.
The Travers win by Keen Ice snapped an eight-race losing streak, and while he has earned back-to-back career-best Beyer Speed Figures, he may need yet another one to take down the top spot here.
Prediction: Despite upsetting American Pharoah in the Travers, it still feels as if this colt is a notch below the top contenders in here. A fourth or fifth might be the best he can do.
Post 3: Frosted
3 of 9Morning-Line Odds: 15-1
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Frosted comes into the Classic off a victory in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby, a race Bayern used last year on his way to winning the 2014 edition of the Classic. The colt won his first race since taking the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct back in April.
The colt checked in third in his previous outing in the Travers, losing by three lengths to Keen Ice, and was no match for American Pharoah in his fourth-place finish in the Run for the Roses and his second in the Belmont Stakes.
His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, won the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic with Invasor and is one of the most respected trainers in New York. Jockey Joel Rosario has won three Breeders’ Cup races in his career, the last coming aboard Bobby’s Kitten in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.
Prediction: The colt tends to land for minor shares, and this is by far his toughest test. He's worth a minor share at best.
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Post 4: American Pharoah
4 of 9
Morning-Line Odds: 6-5
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
American Pharoah will be the first Triple Crown winner to compete in the Breeders’ Cup, and it will be his final career start. He has won eight of his 10 career starts but comes into the Classic off a loss in the Travers to Keen Ice.
Despite the loss, he has remained a solid wagering favorite for the Classic, dropping from 5-2 in September to his current odds at 5-4 at Odds Shark.
Baffert, who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with Bayern, is confident the colt is ready for a top effort in his final career start. "
He's what they used to call in the olden days 'Hickory.' That's Pharoah. He's been able to withstand so much, the racing, the shipping, and he just keeps his head in the feed bucket," Baffert said, per Frank Angst of the Blood-Horse.
Prediction: He's a legit win contender, but how low will the price go? His 6-5 morning line seems to offer little value. Everyone will be rooting for him, but wagering value will be found elsewhere. He's a top-three candidate but certainly not a cinch.
Post 5: Gleneagles
5 of 9Morning-Line Odds: 20-1
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Gleneagles is the wild card of this year’s Classic, having raced 10 times with seven wins in his career, all on turf. The colt won three consecutive Group 1 races before a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in his last start over ground that was not to his liking.
His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has struck with eight overseas shippers in the Breeders’ Cup but has done most of his damage on turf. His lone winner on dirt was Johannesburg, who won the Juvenile in 2001. O’Brien has sent out 14 runners in the Classic but has failed to take down the top prize.
We have seen two European shippers win the Classic: Raven’s Pass in 2008, when Santa Anita had a synthetic racing surface, and Arcangues, the most improbable Breeders’ Cup winner in the three-decade history of the event, who returned $269.20 for a $2 wager.
Prediction: Any horse with five Group 1 wins overseas has to be respected, but this is dirt, and he will be at a disadvantage to the home team. He's not likely to hit the board.
Post 6: Effinex
6 of 9Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Trainer: James Jerkens
Jockey: Mike Smith
Effinex did beat Tonalist in his victory in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap back in July, but his fourth in the Woodward and third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup leave him short of what it needs to win the Classic.
Tonalist beat him by 11 ½ lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in his final prep for the Classic.
On the bright side, he does pick up the top jockey in Breeders’ Cup history. Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith will ride the colt for the first time; he leads all jockeys with 21 Breeders’ Cup wins and is tops in earnings with nearly $27 million.
Prediction: This colt is in way too deep here. There's little chance he cracks the superfecta.
Post 7: Smooth Roller
7 of 9Morning-Line Odds: 15-1
Trainer: Victor Garcia
Jockey: Tyler Baze
Smooth Roller will attempt to win the Classic in just his fifth career start, which would be a record. The colt is coming off a dazzling performance in a victory in the Grade 1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita where he drew clear to win by 5 ¼ lengths.
The colt earned a 111 Beyer Speed Figure for the win, and only Beholder (114) and Honor Code (113) have earned higher numbers this year.
In addition to being lightly raced, the colt has not had a published workout since Oct. 17, which is an unusual move leading into the toughest race on the racing calendar.
Trainer Victor Garcia told Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form the colt “doesn’t need that much. He’s fit. Plus, it’s been raining. I don’t want to take a chance.”
Prediction: He ran fast in his last start, but his lack of experience against top-notch foes will be his downfall. He seems likely to regress off his last effort and not be a factor here.
Post 8: Hard Aces
8 of 9Morning-Line Odds: 50-1
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Hard Aces earned his way into the Classic by winning the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita, a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Win and You’re In race. Since that win in June, things have not gone well.
The six-year-old lost by 14 lengths when he placed sixth in the Pacific Classic and then was sixth in the Awesome Again, losing 11 ¼ lengths.
His regular rider was Victor Espinoza, who is sticking with the Triple Crown winner. Joe Talamo gets the mount on the son of Hard Spun, who likely will be the longest price on the tote board. He is listed at 50-1 at Odds Shark.
It is tough to find a legitimate reason to think this guy will land in the money.
Prediction: To win the Classic a horse needs to come in sharp, and this one lost by a combined 25 ½ lengths in his last two starts. No thanks.
Post 9: Honor Code
9 of 9Morning-Line Odds: 6-1
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer Shug McGaughey skipped the Jockey Club Gold Cup and instead went to the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at a mile for Honor Code’s final Classic prep, and things did not go well. He caught a sloppy track and not much pace, and the late-running son of A.P. Indy had to settle for third.
On the bright side, the race did not seem to take much out of him, and he won the Met Mile and Whitney impressively in his previous two outings.
McGaughey is conservative but has been thrilled with how his contender is coming into the race, and his recent loss is not a concern.
"You never know, but that could have helped him—maybe pushed him forward," the Hall of Famer said, according to Karen Johnson of Blood-Horse. "I think his last three weeks have been the best three weeks I have seen him have.”
Prediction: Don’t let his third-place finish in the Kelso fool you. This well-bred ridgling is going to be flying late and is a major threat to win the race.
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