2016 NFL Draft: Updated Prospect Radar Post-Week 7
We're getting dangerously close to the midseason point in the NFL. Where has the time gone?
Around November, we really start seeing teams re-evaluate this year's goals, as well as next year's. After all, the Miami Dolphins have already fired their head coach, and the Indianapolis Colts very well might be the next squad to ax the leader of their franchise.
It's just hard to get into the playoff race if you aren't on track to win 10 games in a season, and once that dream dies, so does the year. For example, the Detroit Lions already have six losses. They would have to go undefeated from this point forward to get to 10 wins, which may not even earn them a wild-card spot in the NFC this season.
That is why we've been keeping track of college football prospects all year: for when the reality of draft season engulfs 30 franchises before Super Bowl 50. This week's draft-stock update is surprisingly positive, with some big names moving up and some new names flashing. We also included a top-five mock, which we will continue to do as the season strolls along.
Stock Up: Jonathan Allen, EDGE, Alabama
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One of the biggest risers this week was Jonathan Allen of Alabama. The hybrid defensive end-defensive tackle has been a known commodity for a while, but in a close 19-14 Crimson Tide win over Tennessee, he was really able to shine.
Bleacher Report's Luke Easterling called him a first-round pick. NFL Draft Scout's Dane Brugler stated that he needed more recognition. Pro Football Focus has started to dip into the college football realm, and one of its most vocal tweeters, Steve Palazzolo, called him the best pass-rusher on a loaded defensive line. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller even gave him credit but questioned his fit at the professional level.
Allen is still young, as he's just a true junior, and the Alabama defensive line rotates defensive ends in and out often, even dropping off-the-ball linebacker Reggie Ragland to the line of scrimmage at times, so it's understandable if during broadcasts Allen goes unnoticed, but in watching the tape, he's an absolute stud.
He is reminiscent of Adrian Clayborn, a former top-20 pick from the 2011 draft class. Clayborn had health issues coming out of Iowa, though, which stunted his growth as a professional. In his rookie year, he recorded 7.5 sacks as a starting defensive end. He missed both his second and fourth years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, recording 5.5 sacks in his healthy season of 2013.
Clayborn is now paired with 2015 first-round pick Vic Beasley in Atlanta, playing on a "prove it" contract in an attempt to hit a payday in 2016 free agency. As a rotational defensive end and pressure defensive tackle in Dan Quinn's 4-3 defense, he's recorded two sacks and has numerously freed up Beasley on tackle-end (TEX) stunts when they line up on the right side of the defensive line together.
There are times when Allen steamrolls SEC offensive linemen, flatly out-talenting them on the way to either pressures or sacks. In some ways, that's similar to Ra'Shede Hageman, a project height-weight-speed player who was drafted 37th overall by the Falcons in 2014.
Expect Allen to play base defensive end in a 4-3 scheme but kick inside in pressure situations to defensive tackle, where he can use his 283-pound frame to his advantage. In a weak edge-rusher class, you should also expect Allen to vault into the top-40 conversation.
Current draft projection: Top-40 pick
Stock Up: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
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This isn't so much a "stock up" trend but a "stock reaffirmed," which is important for a potential No. 1 pick who hadn't played previously this season. Laremy Tunsil was the subject of an NCAA investigation, which resulted in a half-season suspension for the true junior left tackle.
In Tunsil's first game back, he faced Myles Garrett, who just might be the second coming of Von Miller since he has the hip flexibility I haven't seen from a player since Miller. Often, Garrett was trying to set up counter moves that would have worked against most SEC left tackles, such as Alabama's Cam Robinson, whom I thought was a top-five offensive lineman in college football last season as a true freshman.
Against Tunsil, though, the "rusty" Mississippi bookend was able to mirror the pass-rusher, looking like the Philadelphia Eagles' Jason Peters.
Tunsil needs to be in consideration as the first overall pick. Period. Up until this point, the best offensive lineman I have seen this season is Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley, but in one game, I saw more highlight plays from Tunsil than I have witnessed from Stanley this year.
This isn't Eric Fisher or Greg Robinson that we're talking about. He's not an athletic player who is underdeveloped. In Fisher's case, he was playing in the MAC. In Robinson's case, he was a sophomore. Tunsil is the next Joe Thomas-type prospect, a stone-cold lock to be a franchise left tackle. He's young, dominant and consistent, three attributes that the NFL as a whole is lacking at the position.
Turning 21 years old in August, Tunsil has plenty of room to grow too. He's still recovering from a leg fracture from last season's bowl game. Limiting Garrett, who had recorded a sack in six of Texas A&M's past seven games, is an accomplishment which should be touted. Garrett's one blemish was against Ball State, a game the Aggies led 49-3 at the half.
Current draft projection: Top-three pick
Stock Up: Kyler Fackrell, EDGE, Utah State
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Kyler Fackrell has one of the more interesting storylines in this draft class. After his redshirt season, he became a full-time starter for the Utah State Aggies. With the way he moved and produced pressure, he reminded some of Clay Matthews during his time at USC.
Fackrell didn't declare after his redshirt sophomore season, though, electing to stay past the mandatory three-year minimum between high school graduation and the NFL draft. Early in his junior season, he injured his knee against Tennessee, which ended his year.
So far in 2015, though, he's bounced back as a senior. He's going to get knocked for a couple of reasons: the fact that he's a redshirt senior, his injury history and his level of competition. However, he's absolutely worth a top-100 pick based off his first half of the season—something we had hoped for, but didn't assume, coming into the year.
He's not going to be a dominant athlete, but he's more than capable of being a Paul Kruger type of 3-4 outside linebacker if he can add some weight onto his frame. Against San Diego State, he was the only consistent piece on the Aggies defense—the one guy who was not missing arm-tackle attempts against Donnel Pumphrey, the Aztecs running back who is also an NFL prospect.
Current draft projection: Third round
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Stock Up: Brandon Doughty, QB, Western Kentucky
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It's hard to find rising quarterback prospects this late into their careers, but Brandon Doughty was a player whom I didn't think was a draftable talent heading into this year; however, he is beginning to change my mind. He's a rare sixth-year senior, which means he's going to be ripped apart for his age on the relative scale of college prospects, but he's done well against legitimate opponents.
Western Kentucky doesn't play many big games, but when Doughty was asked to step up to the plate, he did. Against Vanderbilt, Indiana and LSU, he completed 91 of 137 passes, totaling a 66 percent completion percentage for 1,018 yards and seven touchdowns and only three interceptions.
His Hilltoppers beat Vanderbilt in the season opener, and their only two losses have come at Indiana (by three points) and at LSU (by 28 points). He's no physical specimen, but he's accurate enough to get a pass at the next level.
He may be a Day 3 pick, but in this quarterback class, only six senior quarterbacks may be drafted. Connor Cook of Michigan State is clearly the top of the class, with Carson Wentz, who is injured and tends to stare down his North Dakota State targets, behind in the distance. Dak Prescott of Mississippi State is the second coming of Tim Tebow, which really can be looked at as a positive or massive negative at this point. USC's Cody Kessler is a poor man's Aaron Murray.
After that? Doughty would be my pick over once rejected prospects such as Jacoby Brissett, who is at North Carolina State by way of Florida; Jeff Driskel, who is at Louisiana Tech by way of Florida; and Max Wittek, who is at Hawaii by way of USC. Nate Sudfeld is Landry Jones Vol. II, and if you caught the Steelers offense the past two weeks, you want no part of that.
Doughty is going to begin his career in the NFL as a third quarterback, but as we've seen this season, there are real-life NFL implications for that role, and upgrades are clearly needed.
Current draft projection: Fifth round
Stock Down: Devonte Fields, EDGE, Louisville
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Devonte Fields is a shocking prospect. He was a stud as a freshman at Texas Christian. Heading into his sophomore season with the team, he was voted most likely to win the Big 12 defensive player of the year award by the conference media. He had multiple disciplinary issues at TCU, which eventually got him kicked off of the team.
He tried to transfer to Stephen F. Austin but instead went the junior college route after it was evident that he couldn't play at Austin immediately. At Trinity Valley Community College, he didn't put up crazy numbers, which can be rationally explained by double-teams. Since transferring to Louisville after that season, though, he hasn't done much, either.
Overall, he shows a lack of effort, and his athleticism isn't up to par with his TCU days. It's obvious that he's not a more refined rusher, either. Junior college didn't help him with picking up tricks of the trade.
On the surface, his talent has vanished. He's "just a guy" at the college level, let alone an NFL prospect. The last time I can remember a situation like this, though, was Aaron Lynch. He was a stud freshman at Notre Dame but then transferred to South Florida, where he reshaped his body. He declared after three years, was picked on Day 3 of the draft as a flier, regained his frame to his Notre Dame size and now has 11 career sacks, including five in 2015.
Hopefully, Fields can reshape his personality from his days in Fort Worth and go back to that type of on-field success. He used to look like a future first-rounder and is currently putting up the film of an undrafted free agent.
Current draft projection: Undrafted free agent
Stock Up: Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
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Along with Jonathan Allen, Reggie Ragland helped the Alabama Crimson Tide thrive defensively against the Tennessee Volunteers, a game where the team only gave up 14 points. Heading into the season, my main question with Ragland was if he was a good enough athlete to play in coverage consistently.
Ragland isn't Jamie Collins or Anthony Barr by any means, but he does enough when he's playing zone in the middle of the field. I'm not sure he's a guy who should be locked up with a running back if a running back is split out wide, but he's more than fine at the center of a defense.
Overall, Ragland does a little of everything. He drops into coverage, is sent on blitzes and at times even lines up as a 4-3 defensive end. For his effort against Tennessee, 12 tackles showed up in the box score; it was his second-best total tackle mark in his career, including eight solo tackles, a career high.
He's in the first-round mix for teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals, who need linebacker help, and the Green Bay Packers, who probably would like to get Clay Matthews back on the edge at some point. Behind Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith and UCLA's Myles Jack, he's the best off-the-ball linebacker in the class. He fills hard, is a consistent tackler and doesn't have a massive hole in his game. I like him more than Arizona's Scooby Wright, for example.
Current draft projection: First round
Top-Five Mock
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1) Detroit Lions: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi
As I stated in the Laremy Tunsil slide, he's a once-in-a-decade offensive tackle. The Detroit Lions may not put up with Jim Caldwell as their head coach in 2016, but they have no choice but to play Matthew Stafford at quarterback. He's only going to thrive if you're throwing deep often, and pushing Riley Reiff to right tackle while Tunsil takes the left bookend will do the quarterback wonders.
2) Tennessee Titans: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Mississippi
The second overall pick is too high for Ronnie Stanley or a running back, which are the two largest needs for the Tennessee Titans. After pairing Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo at outside linebacker, the team can't take Joey Bosa, who might be the best player available but is 20 pounds from being a starting 5-technique defensive end in the Titans' scheme. Drafting a freak such as Robert Nkemdiche to play next to undertackle Jurrell Casey on the line of scrimmage should open up plays for their 2013 second-team All-Pro.
3) Baltimore Ravens: Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
This is the dream for the Baltimore Ravens. They've rotated pass-rushing outside linebackers for a while, as Paul Kruger and Pernell McPhee have walked in recent seasons. Elvis Dumervil is a pass-rushing specialist who is neutralized in the ground game. Courtney Upshaw is a run-stopper who struggles to get after the quarterback on the NFL level.
They are complementary players who work hand-in-hand opposite of a premier outside linebacker. The issue is, Terrell Suggs tore his Achilles this year, and at 33 years old, it's hard to say how he'll bounce back. The timing would be perfect to add Bosa as Suggs' replacement.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
Gus Bradley wants to run a successful Cover 3 defensive scheme. At the NFL level, this can only happen with length on the outsides and speed at free safety. Davon House has been a bit up and down on the boundary this year, and in-state Jalen Ramsey can either step in place of him, or he can be a rare free safety prospect. The Jaguars are one of the few teams that emphasize the safety position enough to take a player of Ramsey's caliber and move him off the sideline.
5) Houston Texans: Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
The Houston Texans need to take a quarterback. One who isn't a retread Tom Brady backup. One who wasn't passed up by the Browns last offseason. One who is on time for team activities. So long as Connor Cook, who looks the part of a franchise quarterback, can do that, this pick makes sense to me. Jared Goff and maybe Paxton Lynch may be better prospects, but Cook is going to be the one the NFL likes.
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