John Tortorella's Success with Blue Jackets Largely Outside of His Control

On Wednesday, Todd Richards became the first coaching casualty of the 2015-16 season after his Blue Jackets opened the year 0-7-0. To replace him, Columbus has turned to veteran NHL coach John Tortorella.

The decision to make a coaching change is deeply unsurprising, given the team’s record. The decision to hire Tortorella, who combines a reputation as a fiery, combative presence with long experience coaching at the highest level, is an obvious one. And, as is usually the case in these things, it is debatable the degree to which coaching was really the problem.  

The press conference announcing the change was streamed live on the team website and was interesting in terms both of what was and what wasn’t given much attention. Tortorella repeatedly emphasized the virtues of confidence and the need to get some positive momentum; general manager Jarmo Kekalainen focused on the urgency of changing direction. Somehow goaltending didn’t really come up.

Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

Make no mistake: If Sergei Bobrovsky and Curtis McElhinney were delivering NHL-calibre goaltending, Richards would still have a job. If they, or a newcomer, can’t find a way to deliver NHL-calibre goaltending, the arrival of Tortorella really isn’t going to matter. It’s not fair or accurate to say that goaltending is the only problem in Columbus, but more than any other factor, that explains the team’s early-season struggles.

Consider this: Among goalies with more than three games played this year, Bobrovsky has the second-worst save percentage on low-quality chances, as defined by war-on-ice.com. He has the worst save percentage on medium-quality chances. No goalie in the league has been as brutalized on low- and medium-percentage shots as Bobrovsky.

Still, there are places Tortorella can help. His reputation as a firebrand obviously didn’t hurt his chances of landing the job, as Kekalainen agreed on Wednesday with a reporter who asked if the Jackets needed a kick in the rear:

"

I said it needs to change direction. You call it the ‘kick in the rear end.’ I think they’re the same things, but I just expressed it a little differently. We need a change in direction or a kick in the rear end. That’s a big part of coaching sometimes, and sometimes a new voice will just be the kick itself. We need a change.

"

There’s also the issue of offence. While Columbus has respectable goals-for numbers, in large part because the power play has been reasonably effective early, at five-on-five the scoring has sputtered, as the Jackets have struggled to bury the chances they do get. That’s something that could turn around in a hurry and that the hiring of a new coach might even accelerate.

“It’s hard to reach in your pocket and say, ‘Here’s some confidence,’” Tortorella said. “It has to come through just some good things happening. [When] you’ve been around the game long enough, as quickly as it went this way, it can come back the other way.”  

The penalty kill has also had problems this season, and while those may plausibly be tied to goaltending, too, it’s useful to remember that Tortorella’s New York Rangers teams were consistently strong while shorthanded.

So there are reasons to think this can work. If the big need was a shock to the system, Tortorella is a really good fit; he has both the demeanour to provide a spark and the experience to provide reassurance. The offence should be better than it has been, and fresh eyes may help there. He can also aid on the penalty kill.

Having said all that, much of Tortorella’s success or failure will be dictated by the performance of his goaltenders, and that’s largely outside of his control. Bobrovsky probably could have saved Richards with a better performance early. Now he has the power to either doom Tortorella’s efforts or make him look like a genius. We’ll see which way it goes.

Statistics are courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com and war-on-ice.com.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.