Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills are just 4-9 against the spread the last 13 times they've gone off as a betting favorite. The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 12-22-2 ATS over the last two-plus seasons as betting underdogs. So neither team has the trends on their side heading into their international match Sunday morning in London.

Point spread: Bills opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.3-20.6 Jaguars

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is alternating wins and losses this season. It lost last week to Cincinnati 34-21, so if recent form holds, the Bills should win this week, right?

Banged-up Buffalo trailed the Bengals by just a field goal at the half last week, 17-14, but allowed Cincy to score the next 17 points as the game slipped away. On the day, the Bills actually played the Bengals to a statistical tie but committed eight penalties for almost 100 yards and allowed Cincinnati to go 7-of-12 on third-down conversions, which extended two long Bengals second-half scoring drives.

In his first start in more than a full season, Buffalo quarterback EJ Manuel hit on 28-of-42 throws for 263 yards, threw for one score and ran for another. And running back LeSean McCoy, after missing two games with a bad hamstring, came up with 90 yards on 17 carries and one touchdown. If the Bills could just stay healthy, they might be OK.

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags are coming off what could be called their fourth “close” loss of this season, 31-20 against Houston last week. Jacksonville led that game 14-10 through three quarters before giving up three touchdowns, one on an interception return, over a five-minute span. The Jaguars outgained the Texans 394-382, but three Blake Bortles picks proved costly.

Two weeks ago, Jacksonville lost to Tampa Bay 38-31, the winning margin coming on a fumble return for a Buccaneers score. Three weeks ago, the Jags lost at Indianapolis 16-13 in overtime, a game they dominated statistically. If it can just cut down on the mistakes, Jacksonville can be competitive.

Smart pick

So far this NFL season, teams that have outrushed their opponents are 60-30 SU and 57-29 ATS. On the season, Buffalo is outrushing foes by 38 yards per game, while the Jaguars are getting outrushed by nine yards per game. The smart money here backs the Bills.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in 10 of the Bills' last 14 games.

The Jaguars are 1-14 SU in their last 15 games in October.

The Bills are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games after a loss.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.