2015-16 MLB Free Agency: Updated Contract Predictions for Top 15 Players
Although the World Series is right around the corner, it's never too early to look ahead to free agency.
That's especially true this season, as some of the game's biggest names will hit the market in pursuit of hefty paydays. Over the next few slides, we'll take a look at what types of contracts those top MLB free agents might command this winter.
Multiple factors affect a player's value on the market:
- 2015 Production: It's not everything, but obviously players who performed well this past season have more bargaining power. Think Zack Greinke and Yoenis Cespedes.
- Track Record: A player who's proved to be a dependable major leaguer has little risk attached to him. Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann are examples of consistent free-agents-to-be.
- Position Depth on the Market: Ian Desmond and Matt Wieters have their warts, but both should benefit from weak free-agent classes at shortstop and catcher.
- Past Contracts: We can draw conclusions from contracts dished out over the last few seasons.
Using that mix of factors, we'll try to give a ballpark estimate of what each of the top 15 free agents will make over the coming months. Will David Price or Zack Greinke exceed $200 million? Out of Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton, which outfielder deserves the best contract? How should teams value Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija after subpar seasons?
Let us know what you think in the comment section below. How much would you want your team to pay for an elite free agent? Which players on this list do you consider hidden gems?
Oftentimes, MLB free agency is as riveting as the regular season. Let's dive into some of the big names who will be on the move this winter.
Daniel Murphy
1 of 15
2015 Stats: .281/.322/.449, 14 HR, 56 R, 73 RBI, 110 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
Was Daniel Murphy considered a top-15 free-agent target before the playoffs begin? Maybe not.
But as the New York Mets second baseman continues to mash homer after homer during October, teams' interest and his price tag have skyrocketed.
Murphy has always been a valuable player, posting a lifetime slash line of .288/.331/.424. The difference in 2015 is a significant increase in pop. He set a career high in homers with 14 and saw increases in his fly-ball rate and ratio of home runs to fly balls.
On the flip side, Murphy is a 30-year-old middle infielder who's extremely limited defensively. A torrid stretch in October will earn him more money, but it shouldn't blind bidders from eight seasons of data.
Projected Contract: Three years, $30 million
Yovani Gallardo
2 of 15
2015 Stats: 13-11, 3.42 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 184.1 IP, 5.91 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 2.5 WAR
Yovani Gallardo was a key reason why the Texas Rangers won the American League West this season. In 29 starts, the right-hander posted a 3.42 ERA and logged over 180 innings for the seventh straight season.
Gallardo pitched at a high level despite alarmingly lower strikeout totals. In 2010, he fanned more than 25 percent of the batters he faced. In 2015? Gallardo struck out just 15.3 percent.
As expected, his dip in strikeouts is due to a drop in velocity. His fastball, which once sat around 93 mph, averaged 90.5 mph this season. Gallardo compensated for that by throwing his slider more than any other pitch.
Despite less swing-and-miss stuff, Gallardo's ground-ball rate hovered right around 50 percent. He also continued to show consistency, posting a sub-4.00 ERA for the sixth time in seven full MLB seasons.
If Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy can earn multiyear contracts worth around $50 million, Gallardo should find himself in the same ballpark.
Projected Contract: Four years, $48 million
Scott Kazmir
3 of 15
2015 Stats: 7-11, 3.10 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 183 IP, 7.62 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 2.4 WAR
Scott Kazmir signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the Oakland A's before the 2014 season and should better that total when he hits free agency this winter.
After struggling during the middle part of his career, Kazmir has established himself as one of baseball's most dependable lefties. Over the last two seasons, he ranks sixth among left-handers in ERA. Kazmir bettered his 2014 ERA with a 3.10 mark this season with the A's and Houston Astros.
He is a strike-thrower who still manages to stay away from the middle of the plate. The 31-year-old ranked 17th in baseball in terms of limiting hard contact this season, despite average velocity.
It's not all sunshine for Kazmir—he's on the wrong side of 30 and has a history of lingering elbow issues. Yet, the southpaw has pitched well enough over the last two seasons to earn a similar contract to Francisco Liriano's three-year, $39 million deal from last winter.
Projected Contract: Three years, $45 million
.png?w=256)
Matt Wieters
4 of 15
2015 Stats: .267/.319/.422, 8 HR, 24 R, 25 RBI, 100 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
How do you value a player who's suited up only 101 times over the last two seasons?
That's what a prospective team will have to figure out with Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters this winter. After a solid start to his career, the 29-year-old has had difficulty staying on the field due to issues with his elbow.
Wieters returned in June this season to put together a modest season. He hit eight homers and posted a wRC+ of 100, which means he was right around the league average for catchers. However, his strikeout percentage did exceed 20 percent for just the second time in his career.
When healthy, Wieters has the power that teams desire from their backstops. From 2011 to 2013, he ranked second in homers (67) and first in RBI (230) among major league catchers.
Wieters will benefit from a lack of catching talent hitting the market this winter. He'll get paid for his pop, but his injury history will cut into the final figures.
Projected Contract: Three years, $35 million
Ian Desmond
5 of 15
2015 Stats: .233/.290/.384, 19 HR, 69 R, 62 RBI, 13 SB, 83 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
Ian Desmond was the most disappointing player on the most disappointing team of 2015.
After three straight 20-20 seasons, Desmond looked like a lost cause at the plate this year. He hit just .233, combining that low average with an anemic on-base percentage of .290. The 30-year-old struck out 29 percent of the time, which led all major league shortstops.
Desmond was also a mess defensively, committing 20 or more errors for the third straight year. He ranked second in MLB in that dubious category, as well. It's easy to look past Desmond's shortcomings when he's knocking the ball out of the park and stealing bases. When he's not, it's hard to justify overspending on a player who is that inconsistent.
Before the 2013 season, Desmond turned down a seven-year, $107 million extension. He's still the premier shortstop in this free-agent class, but that type of money won't be on the table this winter.
Projected Contract: Four years, $60 million
Jeff Samardzija
6 of 15
2015 Stats: 11-13, 4.96 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 6.86 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 2.7 WAR
Jeff Samardzija was expected to be the missing link for a Chicago White Sox team with playoff aspirations in 2015.
That grand vision didn't play out that way, as Samardzija suffered through his worst season as a pro. The right-hander set career lows in ERA, strikeouts per nine innings and homers per nine innings.
Samardzija's troubles can be easily explained—he stopped striking hitters out and inducing ground-ball contact. The 30-year-old saw his strikeout percentage drop from 23 to 17.3 percent and his ground-ball rate plummet from 50 to 39 percent.
In his last two starts, Samardzija did show signs of his old self, allowing two earned runs and fanning nine in 16 innings. There was no dip in velocity this season, which indicates that Samardzija's problems are mechanical and thus fixable.
Instead of flirting with the upper echelon of free-agent starters, Samardzija finds himself in the middle of the pack with several other reliable starters. Still, the stuff is there for a team to gamble on a 200-inning workhorse.
Projected Contract: Four years, $60 million
Alex Gordon
7 of 15
2015 Stats: .271/.377/.432, 13 HR, 40 R, 48 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
Since signing a four-year, $37.5 million contract before the 2012 season, Alex Gordon has done nothing but enhance his value.
There aren't many more complete outfielders in baseball than Gordon. The Kansas City Royals star slashed .271/.377/.432 this season and hit 13 homers despite missing extended time with a groin injury. Those numbers come on the heels of a 19-homer season in 2014.
Gordon's plate discipline continues to improve as he ages. The strikeouts are still there, but the 31-year-old posted a double-digit walk rate for the third time in four seasons. He also increased his line-drive rate, ratio of home runs to fly balls and hard-contact percentage this season.
Basically, Gordon is playing his best baseball in to his thirties.
He is still a plus defender, recording 97 defensive runs saved during his career. Excluding this season, he's missed only 25 games over the last four years. He'll help a team in every aspect of the game, which is why he'll be a winner this winter.
Projected Contract: Five years, $100 million
Johnny Cueto
8 of 15
2015 Stats: 11-13, 3.44 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 212 IP, 7.47 K/9, 1.95 BB/9, 4.1 WAR
From 2011 to 2014, Johnny Cueto was 53-25 with a 2.48 ERA in 102 starts with the Cincinnati Reds. He ranked third during that span in ERA, which includes a 2.25 ERA last season.
Cueto started 2015 off in the same manner, recording a 2.62 ERA and striking out eight-plus per nine innings in 19 starts with the Reds. He became a highly coveted target at the trade deadline and was eventually dealt to the Kansas City Royals.
Cueto has not looked like a perennial ace in K.C., though. He's had his moments, but he posted a 4.76 ERA and saw a severe drop in strikeouts during the second half with his new team. Cueto has been inconsistent in the postseason as well, looking like a front-line starter one start before getting crushed the next.
Teams will be wary of Cueto after his subpar second half, but he's too good a hurler not to get a lucrative offer this winter. He'll likely bag a contract similar to James Shields' four-year, $75 million deal from last winter.
Projected Contract: Five years, $80 million
Jordan Zimmermann
9 of 15
2015 Stats: 13-10, 3.66 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 201.2 IP, 7.32 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 3.0 WAR
The free-agent market will be flush with starting pitching talent, but Jordan Zimmermann could be the hidden gem in the entire class.
In the shadow of Steven Strasburg and Max Scherzer, Zimmermann proved he's capable of pitching at the front of any rotation. The right-hander has won 66 games and posted a 3.14 ERA since his first full season in 2011, ranking 12th in MLB in that span in pitching WAR.
Zimmermann's strength is his impeccable control. The 29-year-old has never walked more than 5.3 percent of the batters he's faced in any season during his career. Combine that command with swing-and-miss stuff, and it's easy to see why he's had so much success over the last few seasons.
At 29, Zimmermann is just entering the prime of his career. He's made 30 starts in each of the last four seasons, making him the durable workhorse that every staff needs.
Teams will pay a pretty penny for 200-plus inning starters with swing-and-miss stuff. He may not be the most exciting signing, but every team would love to have Zimmermann in its rotation.
Projected Contract: Six years, $85 million
Chris Davis
10 of 15
2015 Stats: .262/.361/.562, 47 HR, 100 R, 117 RBI, 147 wRC+, 5.6 WAR
Need power? You've come to the right place.
There aren't many hitters in baseball with as much raw pop as Chris Davis. The Baltimore Orioles slugger has mashed 159 homers since 2012, more than any other player in baseball. He did that despite playing in just 127 games a season ago.
Davis is so adept at hitting the long ball that the strikeouts have never really been an issue. He's whiffed over 30 percent of the time in three of the last four seasons but has masked that flaw with double-digit walk rates in three straight campaigns.
Davis is the definition of a "three true outcome" player. Yet, he's so good at hitting homers and drawing walk that the strikeouts don't really hurt his overall stat line. The 29-year-old is of course limited defensively, which will likely reduce his options to the AL, where he can be a designated hitter as he ages.
Something that will benefit Davis is the fact that Nelson Cruz's four-year, $57 million deal from last winter looks like a steal a year later. Of course, having Scott Boras as an agent won't hurt either.
Projected Contract: Six years, $120 million
Justin Upton
11 of 15
If feels like Justin Upton has been in the league forever, but at just 28, the San Diego Padres outfielder is in line for a big payday this winter.
Upton produced at his customary levels this season, mashing 26 homers and driving in 81 runs. Since his debut in 2009, Upton has hit 188 homers and has 605 RBI. Both of those totals rank among the top 11 of MLB outfielders during that span.
After a brief hiatus over the last two seasons, Upton started to run more with the Padres. He swiped 19 bags this season, his most since four straight double-digit campaigns with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Upton is one of a handful of talented outfielders hitting the market at the same time. He may not be as well-rounded as some of his free-agent peers, but he's probably the most consistent power threat of the bunch.
That power and a relatively clean injury past will push Upton's contract well over $100 million this winter.
Projected Contract: Six years, $150 million
Yoenis Cespedes
12 of 15
2015 Stats: .291/.328/.542, 35 HR, 101 R, 105 RBI, 135 wRC+, 6.7 WAR
What a year Yoenis Cespedes is having in 2015. As the New York Mets prepare for the World Series, the outfielder is still in the midst of enhancing his value.
Cespedes eclipsed 30 homers for the first time in his career this season and recorded over 100 RBI for the second straight year. The 30-year-old ranked third among MLB outfielders behind only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in WAR while driving in the second-most runs.
After a deadline trade to the New York Mets, Cespedes saved his best work for the second half. In just 57 games, he hit 17 homers and was a huge addition to an anemic Mets offense. Without Cespedes, it's hard to envision the Mets reaching the World Series.
For Cespedes, that's fantastic for business. Other outfielders are better suited for long-term deals, but it's hard to believe anybody will make more of an immediate impact than him.
Projected Contract: Six years, $180 million
Jason Heyward
13 of 15
2015 Stats: .293/.359/.439, 13 HR, 79 R, 60 RBI, 23 SB, 121 wRC+, 6.0 WAR
Jason Heyward adapted well to his new surroundings in 2015, leading the St. Louis Cardinals to a NL Central crown.
He stayed healthy and put together one of the most complete offensive seasons of his career. The outfielder hit close to .300 while sporting quality on-base and slugging percentages. He also chipped in with 13 homers and 23 steals.
As always, the 26-year-old provided elite outfield defense. Heyward's 24 defensive runs saved ranked third among outfielders. Since his debut in 2010, no outfielder can touch his defensive prowess.
The biggest concern with Heyward is the lack of development in his power. At 6'5", 245 pounds, 13 homers seem a little light. Part of that is due to a swing that creates downward contact over 70 percent of the time, but part of it is because he hasn't even reached his prime yet.
That power potential is exactly why Heyward will earn the richest contract among all the free-agent outfielders this season. He's already an elite defender with excellent plate discipline and contact skills. Imagine how valuable he'll be if he pushes that home run total into the 20s?
Heyward will be the youngest and most well-rounded hitter available this winter. He'll receive a long-term contract that flirts with $200 million.
Projected Contract: Eight years, $200 million
Zack Greinke
14 of 15
2015 Stats: 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 222.2 IP, 8.08 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 5.9 WAR
Zack Greinke enjoyed an outstanding 2015, which should culminate in the NL CY Young next month.
He posted a 1.66 ERA in 32 starts this season. That mark is the lowest since Greg Maddux's 1.63 in 1995. Simply put, Greinke was historically good in 2015.
The right-hander combined swing-and-miss stuff with elite command. He had the seventh-lowest walk rate in baseball, which led to a 19 percent strikeout-percentage-to-walk-percentage rate. Couple that with four straight seasons of near 50 percent ground-ball percentages and it's clear that Greinke is not going anywhere.
At 32, Greinke's age will make teams hesitant to hand out a long-term deal. But since 2004, he's made at least 28 starts nine times, including nine straight seasons. He's durable, dependable and good. What more do you want from a front-line starter?
Projected Contract: Seven years, $195 million
David Price
15 of 15
2015 Stats: 18-5, 2.45 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 9.19 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 6.4 WAR
After swapping teams at the trade deadline, David Price is poised to break the bank this winter.
The left-hander was fantastic, posting a 2.45 ERA and winning 18 games with the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays. Price struck out 25 percent of the batters he faced for the second straight season while also walking only 5.3 percent of those hitters.
That's nothing new for Price, who has been among the elite arms in the game since his first full season as a starter in 2010. During that time, Price ranks third in wins, fourth in innings pitched and 11th in ERA.
The 30-year-old is one of the few bona fide aces in baseball. It's time he gets paid like one.
Price's durability and run of success can be topped by very few individuals. He also just concluded the best year of his career. That's the perfect storm for an elite contract, which Price will earn this winter.
Projected Contract: Eight years, $200 million
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 23.
.png?w=480)
