Rugby World Cup 2015: Bold Predictions for Australia vs. Argentina

Australia take on Argentina in the second 2015 Rugby World Cup semi-final at Twickenham on Sunday eager to reach their first final in 12 years. The Pumas have equalled their run to the last four from France 2007 but are in even better shape this time.

Australia could be without their talisman, but they will also have to deal with Argentina’s fast start and the bold decision-making from the Pumas’ coach, Daniel Hourcade.

Are Australia consistent enough to defeat the redoubtable Pumas?

Argentina to Beat Australia

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Argentina have been the most consistent team at Rugby World Cup 2015. They should have beaten New Zealand and thrashed Ireland despite going through very tough second and third quarters of the match. They are confident, well-drilled and skilful.

Australia, fabulous against England, courageous in the extreme against Wales, were mediocre against Scotland. Tries from an intercept, a charge-down and a walk over from a ruck are inexcusable in World Cup quarter-finals.

Australia could be missing key players, too. Israel Folau has struggled for fitness all tournament and has been unable to find any form. Australia may also be without David Pocock and prop Scott Sio. If they are, the Wallabies are in serious trouble.

Argentina to Nullify Australia at the Breakdown

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Australia have been excellent on the floor this tournament, but so much relies on the availability of David Pocock. As per World Rugby Stats Hub, the converted No. 8 leads the turnover chart with 10, despite missing the Scotland game through injury. No other Wallaby is in the top 20.

Argentina’s top ball-poacher is their hooker: Agustin Creevy, fourth on the list with eight snatches.

Australia and Argentina aim to win turnovers in differing ways. For Australia, it is all about athleticism. The tackler completes his hit and then is onto his feet in a flash, by which time another forward is helping to compete for the ball.

Argentina meanwhile, place greater emphasis on the actual hit and body position. Creevy doesn’t have a back-rower’s dynamism to get off the floor and onto his feet like Pocock, but with his squat body and low centre of gravity, he can be very hard to shift if he joins his teammate who made the tackle.

Even if Pocock plays, Argentina will stop Australia dominating the ruck as much as they did against England and Wales. Without Pocock, Argentina might edge the breakdown.

Argentina to Score the First Try

Argentina and Australia both started their quarter-finals well, with early tries for Matias Moroni (see video above) and Adam Ashley-Cooper, respectively. But it is the Pumas who will target the first 20 minutes. Roused by their anthem, they will come out of the blocks strongly.

Australia too will want to make an early impression to settle the nerves that may linger after the narrow victory over Scotland, but, as underdogs, Argentina need the early score more and have the firepower to find it.

Argentina Coach Daniel Hourcade to Out-Think Australia’s Michael Cheika

Michael Cheika has done amazing things with Australia in a year in charge. When they toured the northern hemisphere last November, they were in disarray. Since then they have won the Rugby Championship and become one of the teams to beat at the World Cup.

Cheika’s great strength is his tactical preparation. Bernard Foley’s second try against England (see video above) was a masterclass in understanding how England defend. Equally, his decision to pair Michael Hooper with David Pocock in the back row has been a resounding success.

Argentine coach Daniel Hourcade can also boast attention to detail. As I highlighted in an article after the match, he knew where to attack Ireland (out wide), and his team executed the plan.

Neither did Hourcade shy from big decisions. Key front-rowers Marcos Ayerza and Agustin Creevy were replaced with the game on a knife edge. The result? Argentina’s fresh legs revitalised the team, and they scored 20 unanswered points on the Irish.

Cheika and Hourcade prepare their team expertly, but Hourcade could have an edge when it comes to affecting the game during its course.

Australia’s Argentine Forwards Coach Mario Ledesma to Be Proud at Full-Time

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Expect former Argentina hooker turned Australian scrum fixer Mario Ledesma to be brimming with pride at the final whistle whichever way the semi-final goes. Quite simply, the man can’t lose.

If Australia advance to the final, they will have at least matched the Pumas in the tight, and his burgeoning coaching credentials will be further enhanced.

But because Ledesma has already made a major impression on international rugby by shoring up the shaky Australia set piece, even if the Argentines overpower the Wallaby scrum, his reputation is secure. And his nation will have reached its first Rugby World Cup final.