Detroit Lions' Season Outlook After Securing First Win

A single win can define a season, galvanizing a team that's persevered through a set of particularly dire circumstances.

No, the Detroit Lions probably didn't find such a turning point in their win over the Chicago Bears, although MLive Media Group scribe Justin Rogers did make a startling observation:

"

I have no idea why I'm pointing this out, but if Lions win on Sunday, they'll only be one game in the win column back of the NFC's 6th seed.

— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) October 19, 2015"

It's true. While the Lions are the only one-win team in the conference, there are eight who have hoarded twice as many victories as Detroit and a pair of squads that have piled up three.

The NFL hasn't done a lot of things right lately, but its policy for implementing parity has worked like a charm...or deluged the league with a plague of mediocrity. Whichever tact you fancy, the result could very well be a 9-7 Wild Card in the NFC.

How many wins does the schedule afford?

Rogers wasn't done dropping truth bombs this week, although his second tweet took unintentional aim at the fan base's recently risen hopes.

"

According to NumberFire, Lions have 0.48% chance of making the playoffs and 9.38% chance of selecting No. 1 overall in the draft.

— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) October 20, 2015"

Simply put: Detroit's margin for error is dramatically reduced relative to the other teams in the running. Shocking, I know.

Presumably, the numbers cited above take into account the drastic drop in competition over the coming months.

Week	Opponent	Record
7	Minnesota Vikings	3-2
8	at Kansas City Chiefs (in London)	1-5
10	at Green Bay Packers	6-0
11	Oakland Raiders	2-3
12	Philadelphia Eagles	3-3
13	Green Bay Packers	6-0
14	at St. Louis Rams	2-3
15	at New Orleans Saints	2-4
16	San Francisco 49ers	2-4
17	at Chicago Bears	2-4

Only two of the 10 remaining opponents have a winning record (Detroit plays Green Bay twice). And the Philadelphia Eagles are the only one of the leftovers to broach the heightened level of average, posting the only .500 mark.

Regardless, the extreme odds mean the above records will probably only affect draft positioning. To presume the Lions suddenly have their offense figured out and will execute on a consistent basis is an assertion worthy of a presidential campaign.

Instead, it's best to shift your focus elsewhere and look for questions with a basis in reality.

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Who needs to make an impression on the field?

The more likely scenario is that the last 10 games will serve as an elongated tryout.

Detroit currently has 22 players set to be free agents after this season, per Spotrac, meaning plenty of jobs for next year are yet to be determined. 

Three-fourths of the starting defensive line could be replaced next season. Ezekiel Ansah is the only certainty. While defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and end Jason Jones will look to prove that age hasn't caught up to them, Tyrunn Walker will be rehabbing, hoping his small sample of tape is enough to land a longer contract.

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Additionally, linebackers Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis will be battling for one spot. Detroit is unlikely to carry both next season, and the former has found his playing time sacrificed to the good of the latter. And strong safety James Ihedigbo rounds out the defensive starters on trial this season.

The offensive side finds two players who desperately need to rekindle interest in their potential. Right tackle LaAdrian Waddle leads the team in quarterback hurries (17) and hits (6) allowed, per Pro Football Focus, while wide receiver Corey Fuller has just three catches.

Who needs to show improvement on the sideline?

Or the coaching box as it were.

Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has taken his deserved share of grief for predictable play calls and a reluctance to throw deep to Calvin Johnson that defies comprehension. Something, however, clicked for him when he called this last game from the coaches' box, drawing praise from the Internet:

"

It only took 6 weeks & moving up to the coaches box for Joe Lombardi to have the "Maybe I should take some shots to Megatron" epiphany.

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) October 19, 2015"

At this point, it would take a miracle on par with Detroit grabbing that last Wild Card for Lombardi to keep his job. We can appreciate him finally chucking it deep and getting creative with six offensive linemen to help the running game, but his offense has underachieved for too long.

That means the suspense will belong solely to head coach Jim Caldwell. He has an incredible knack for wearing both the comedy and tragedy masks that represent drama simultaneously, drawing tears and laughter in the same scene.

"

Jim Caldwell just kicked a field goal while down 7 points with 2:46 remaining in the 4th quarter and his team winless on the season.

— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 18, 2015"

Some found wisdom in that choice. They argue that the defense bailing him out and the offense scoring a touchdown somehow mean this was the right choice.

That makes as much sense as driving with your eyes closed and then reasoning that because you made it to your destination, it was the proper call.

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Unfortunately, this was just another instance of Caldwell ignoring the evidence in front of him, much like he's done with Lombardi. Caldwell has more job security than his offensive coordinator, but it's not a theory he should test.

Then again, who knows? Maybe Detroit won't drop more than a game or two the rest of the way. As the world's most famous soldier, kick returner and shrimping captain once opined: [Stuff] happens.

All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter@BrandonAlisoglu.