NASCAR Fantasy 2015: Hollywood Casino 400 Top Drivers and Sleeper Picks
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Kansas City, Kansas, this week for the Hollywood Casino 400. The race can be seen this Sunday at 2:15 p.m. ET on NBC.
The best way to assemble a dominating DraftKings lineup is to select the perfect combination of top drivers and sleeper picks. A sleeper pick is any driver priced under $8,000 who has a legitimate chance of finishing in the top 10. Fantasy teams who can find the perfect sleeper picks to combine with the top drivers will be taking home the cash in their contest.
The Contender Round's first race is in the books, and three drivers have already dug themselves a hole. Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kyle Busch had problems at Charlotte and will need a good race this week to gain points in the standings. The good news for Earnhardt and Kenseth is they are really good at Kansas and will have a good chance to finish up front. That is not the case for Busch. Kansas is by far his worst track, and he will need a lot of luck to finish up front this week.
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The series last raced at Kansas in May. Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick dominated the race. They led 148 of the 267 laps. Rain interrupted the race, and when the cars got back on the track, Jimmie Johnson took over. He led the last 10 laps on his way to Victory Lane.
Here are the top 10 drivers with the highest point totals from the last race at Kansas from ifantasyrace.com:
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Martin Truex Jr. | 76.25 |
| 2 | Kevin Harvick | 74.75 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 74.5 |
| 4 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 58 |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski | 52.75 |
| 6 | Matt Kenseth | 52.25 |
| 7 | Jeff Gordon | 48 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 47.75 |
| 9 | Kurt Busch | 45 |
| 10 | AJ Allmendinger | 45 |
Passing has become very difficult since the Chase began in early September.
Kyle Busch led 121 laps at Chicago, Kevin Harvick led 216 laps at New Hampshire and 355 laps at Dover and last week Joey Logano led 227 laps at Charlotte. These drivers scored so many bonus points that they almost single-handedly won people their DraftKings contest. Fantasy teams must figure out who the fast driver is before the race by checking out the Happy Hour speeds Saturday. These drivers could be your ticket to the pay window Sunday.
The best strategy for the Kansas race is to pick two drivers who start up front with a good chance to lead the most laps. Usually this has been the pole-sitter and another driver starting in the first two rows. The other four should consist of drivers who start deeper in the field with a chance to score bonus points for place-differential.
Top Drivers
Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($11,500)
There have been 20 races on intermediate tracks this season (tracks one mile to 2.4 miles in length), and Harvick has three wins and 11 finishes in the top two. Harvick’s performances on these types of tracks this season has been very impressive. He is almost a lock for a top-five finish Sunday.
Harvick had one of the cars to beat in the race at Kansas in May. He qualified sixth and led 53 laps on his way to a second-place finish. Harvick has a series-best driver rating, a series-best average-finish position and led the most laps in the last five races at Kansas. He is my pick to win this week.
Once again Harvick is the highest priced driver for DraftKings contest. In order to justify spending $11,500 on one driver, fantasy teams must ensure he has a fast car. Check out the qualifying results and Happy Hour speeds before using the No. 4 car in your contest. If Harvick tops the charts, he will be worth every penny at Kansas.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 16.1 | 11.0 |
The No. 4 car has been one of the fastest cars in every race in the Chase. Harvick has led 581 laps in the four races. He has back-to-back top-two finishes and should have one of the fastest cars Sunday. Harvick is the safest pick for Sunday's DraftKings contest.
Joey Logano, Team Penske Racing, Ford ($10,600)
While Kevin Harvick consistently finishes up front, Logano continues to win races. No driver has won more races the last two seasons than Logano (nine wins). He is already earned his spot in the Chase's Eliminator Round, but do not be surprised to see the No. 22 team try to add another trip to Victory Lane to their 2015 resume.
Logano has been the best driver on the intermediate tracks this season. He has a series-best average-finish position (6.5) and has finished 17 of the 20 races in the top 10. If Harvick is the best choice for DraftKings contest, Logano is a close second.
Logano is the third-highest priced driver in this week's contest. I am surprised that Kyle Busch has a higher price than Logano since this is the worst track for Busch. Logano dominated last week at Charlotte and could do the same at Kansas. He is well worth his price this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 10.0 | 18.5 |
Logano has been the most consistent driver in the Chase. He has finished every race in the top 10 and has led 228 laps in the four races. Logano won the pole for the last race at Kansas, and he could start up front and lead many laps Sunday.
Matt Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota ($10,500)
The top eight drivers advance to the Eliminator Round of the Chase, and Kenseth is 32 points from the transfer spot after his horrible race at Charlotte. Kenseth is almost in a must-win position this week. Kevin Harvick was in a similar position at Dover and dominated the race on his way to Victory Lane. I would not be surprised to see Kenseth win another race at Kansas this week.
Kenseth has been good this season on the intermediate tracks. He has three wins and finished 14 of the 20 races in the top 10. In May he started 18th and finished sixth at Kansas. Kenseth was able to score the sixth-most points in DraftKings contest. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars are much faster now than they were in May, so I expect a top-five finish for the No. 20 team this week.
Kenseth will be a good driver to build your lineup around. He is not the highest-priced driver in the contest, but fantasy teams will still need to spend a significant amount of their salary on him. He needs a win this week, so he could end up leading many laps and scoring many bonus points. It would not be a bad idea to use Kenseth as your top driver.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 2 | 6 | 11 | 14.4 | 13.7 |
If Joe Gibbs Racing has a fast car in their garage that they have been saving for a must-win race, Kenseth will be driving it Sunday. The last thing the team wants is to go into the race at Talladega in a must-win situation. The team has the speed to get the job done and I think they will be up front for the majority of the race.
Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Racing, Chevy ($10,300)
Truex Jr. had the car to beat in the last race at Kansas. He qualified fourth, had a series-best driver rating, a second-place average-running position and led 95 laps on his way to a ninth-place finish. Truex is not running as well as he did in the spring, but I think he will still be in the top five at the end of the race Sunday.
Truex has been one of the best drivers on the intermediate tracks this season. He has the third-best average-finish position (7.8) and has finished 15 of the 20 races in the top 10. Truex should have momentum after finishing third last week at Charlotte.
I was hoping Truex would be priced under $10,000 this week, but it seems as though DraftKings realizes he is one of the best choices in the field this week as well. Truex is the sixth-highest priced driver for your contest at Kansas. If he is able to lead as many laps as he did in May, he will be well worth his price.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 13.3 | 17.5 |
There is a lot going on with the No. 78 team. They announced last month that they will switch from Chevy to Toyota at the end of the season, and crew chief Cole Pearn has been placed on probation following an incident at Dover International Speedway. The team has shown they can overcome adversity last week, and they will need to do it again at Kansas.
Sleepers
Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing, Chevy ($7,300)
Newman is one of the most underrated drivers in DraftKings contest. He does not lead many laps, but he is one of the best drivers at making his way to the front at the end of the race. Newman has 14 top-10 finishes this year, and nine of those have come on the intermediate tracks.
The last race at Kansas was a typical race for Newman. He qualified 15th and spent most of the night running just inside the top 20. When the checkered-flag was waived, Newman was in the top 10. He is one of the most reliable drivers for your contest.
Newman is always underpriced in DraftKings contest. He is one of the 12 drivers competing for a championship, yet he is the 16th-highest priced driver for your contest. Newman should easily finish in the top 10 this week and have great value for your lineup.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 13.9 | 17.5 |
Newman has been able to collect top-10 finishes, and that has been enough to advance him in the Chase. This week he is one spot out of the transfer position, so he will have to do better than a top-10 finish. Newman will need to ensure he stays in front of the drivers ahead of him in the standings. Newman should finish between sixth and 10th this week.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing, Chevy ($6,500)
Dillon is starting to figure out how to compete in the Sprint Cup Series. I think most of his success this season is a result of him running most of the Xfinity Series races in preparation for the race in the higher series. He will be in the No. 33 car in the Xfinity Series race Saturday, and that experience should help him Sunday.
The race last week at Charlotte was one of Dillon's best races of the season. He qualified 14th and finished seventh. Since the two tracks are similar in size and shape, I think Dillon will have a chance for another top-10 finish at Kansas.
Dillon is a great bargain at $6,500. There are 20 drivers with a higher price than Dillon this week. I think he will outscore at least five of them. Dillon is a great choice to round out your lineup this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 22.3 | 18.7 |
Dillon ran well in this race last year. He started 16th and finished eighth. He has been one of the better drivers at the intermediate tracks since the race at Michigan in August. He should easily finish in the top 20 in this week.
Aric Almirola, Richard Petty Motorsports, Ford ($6,400)
The No. 43 team has really picked up some speed since the Chase began. Almirola finished 10th at Chicago, fifth at New Hampshire and 10th at Charlotte. He will have a good chance for another top-10 finish Sunday.
Kansas is the best track for Almirola. He has finished four of the last five races at the track in the top 10. In May he started 14th and finished 11th. Four of his five finishes in the top 10 this season have come on the intermediate tracks. Almirola is a good sleeper pick for your contest this week.
As long as Almirola continues to collect top-10 finishes and have a top-25 price, he will be included in the sleeper list. It is rare that fantasy teams are able to get a driver running as well as Almirola for under $6,500. At this price he is almost a “must have” selection for your contest.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 12.3 | 17.1 |
Since the reconfiguration of the Kansas track, Almirola has run in the top 11 in every race, except the race last fall. He qualified third and was running in the top 10 until he had engine problems. I doubt they will have the same problems Sunday, so Almirola will be a safe pick.
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevy ($7,800)
McMurray is one of the most reliable drivers for your contest. He has finished eight consecutive races in the top 16. He ran well at Kansas in the spring, and he should easily finish in the top 15 Sunday.
McMurray has been hit-or-miss on the intermediate tracks this season. He has finished six of the 20 races in the top 10, but he has only finished three of the races outside the top 20. McMurray could find his way inside the top 10 this week, but it will be more likely that his finishes just inside the top 15.
The only problem with McMurray's this week is his price. I think Newman and Almirola are better values for the money, but McMurray has a chance to be a good value pick this week if he shows up with a fast car. Be sure to check out his Happy Hour speed before selecting McMurray. If he is in the top 10, he will be worth the $7,800 at Kansas.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 18.9 | 19.8 |
If McMurray can duplicate his results from the race last week at Charlotte, fantasy teams will be very happy. McMurray qualified 30th and drove his way through the field for a 12th-place finish. He scored 18 bonus points for place-differential. McMurray should be considered for every contest this week.
DraftKings Picks for Kansas
Driver 1: Kevin Harvick ($11,500)
Driver 2: Joey Logano ($10,600)
Driver 3: Carl Edwards ($9,600)
Driver 4: Austin Dillon ($6,500)
Driver 5: Aric Almirola ($6,400)
Driver 6: Ryan Blaney ($5,300)
Advanced stats courtesy Racing-Reference.Info and Yahoo Racing Stats.
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