NFL Predictions Week 6: Upset Picks and Projections

The NFL gives us weekly upsets, so it's rare that we're shocked by an outcome. But it can be tough to identify when the upsets are coming. 

Week 7 sends many of the top teams on the road, which is often a key ingredient for an upset. 

Below are the updated spreads for Week 7, with two predicted upsets analyzed below. 

Day/Time	Matchup (Spread)	ATS Picks
Thurs. 8:25 p.m. ET	Falcons (-3) at Saints	Falcons
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Bengals (-3.5) at Bills	Bengals
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Bears at Lions (-2.5)	Lions
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Dolphins at Titans (-2.5)	Dolphins
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Chiefs at Vikings (-4)	Vikings
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Redskins at Jets (-7)	Redskins
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Cardinals (-3) at Steelers	Steelers
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Broncos (-4) at Browns	Broncos
Sun. 1 p.m. ET	Texans at Jaguars (Even)	Jaguars
Sun. 4:25 p.m. ET	Chargers at Packers (-11.5)	Chargers
Sun. 4:25 p.m. ET	Ravens (-1) at 49ers	49ers
Sun. 4:05 p.m. ET	Panthers at Seahawks (-7)	Panthers
Sun. 8:30 p.m. ET	Patriots (-9) at Colts	Colts
Mon. 8:30 p.m. ET	Giants at Eagles (-4)	Giants

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

The Steelers are an impressive 29-12 under Mike Tomlin in interdivision games at Heinz Field. 

It's simply a tough environment to play in, especially for teams that don't venture into Pittsburgh on a yearly basis. 

While it's easy to write off the Steelers due to the downgrade they've suffered at quarterback, Michael Vick has proven to be a capable replacement, and the coaching staff has developed a new game plan to suit his skill set. 

According to Rotowire, in three games this season, Ben Roethlisberger attempted 11 passes at least 20 yards down the field (12.4 percent of his total attempts). But Vick has thrown the deep ball just four times in the three games in which he's played. 

Vick will also benefit from the return of second-year wideout Martavis Bryant, who is on the active roster this week after a four-week suspension and knee injury kept him out the first five weeks of the season.

"

Back to the grind. #StairwayToSeven pic.twitter.com/xV25HCS4mI

— Martavis Bryant (@ThaBestUNO) October 13, 2015"

Bryant was a dangerous red-zone weapon for the Steelers as a rookie, seeing nine red-zone targets in his 10 games. 

Of course, this won't be an easy victory for the Steelers, as Carson Palmer has won six straight road games as the Cardinals starter dating back to 2013.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Cardinals 21

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Bad teams make coaching changes, so obviously, the cumulative record of midseason hires isn't great. But that doesn't mean there aren't examples of it working. 

The most recent example is the 2010 Cowboys, who promoted Jason Garrett after firing Wade Phillips. The Cowboys were a pitiful 1-7 prior to the switch but went 5-3 down the stretch with Garrett.

There's still plenty of talent on the Dolphins roster, so if Dan Campbell can get his players to buy into his changes, he could be one of the few interim coaches to make it work.

Miami's strength is its defense, which bodes well for the Dolphins going up against a rookie quarterback. Through four games, Miami has yet to allow a 300-yard passer.

The key to this game could be the Dolphins' ability to force Marcus Mariota into mistakes. 

The Dolphins forced two turnovers in their lone victory of the season against Washington, but they have forced just one in their three losses combined. 

Marcus Mariota has only thrown three interceptions, but all three came in his past two games against the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills. 

"

.@Titans QB Marcus Mariota took 10 snaps under pressure vs Bills and went only 2-7 for 14 yards when under pressure, per @pff.

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) October 12, 2015"

Mariota struggled under pressure against the Bills, an area where the Dolphins should excel. If Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake can consistently collapse the pocket, the Dolphins defense could have a breakout performance against Tennessee.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Titans 17