
Top NFL Trade Targets as Deadline Approaches
The NFL trade deadline is quickly approaching, and contending franchises should be aggressive in their pursuit to improve their roster before the playoffs. Generally, the trade deadline has been a quiet affair across the league. There has been a resurgence of player trades this season, totaling 32 since the end of the 2015 NFL draft.
With 10 teams holding at least $10 million of cap space, there is plenty of room for more deals by early November. Although it’s not as easy to plug and play NFL athletes as it is in baseball or basketball, it’s realistic to expect players at certain positions to react well to a deal. The quarterback position would be the most difficult one to force a midseason change, seeing as QBs don’t have the benefit of sub-packages to ease their workload.
We’ve accumulated the eight best trade targets worth acquiring for franchises. Some are veterans in the last year of their contracts, while others will be under team control for several more seasons. There’s also a projected compensation price for each player.
For that, we’re using the compensatory pick model to help determine value. Remember, if a team allows a big free agent to depart and doesn’t fill his salary void or impact, it'll likely get a compensatory pick for the 2017 draft. So any deal must be right around the projected value for the team trading away the talent for the pick.
Let’s jump in and take a look at who should be on the market, and the teams that should be calling before the trade deadline on November 3.
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
1 of 8
A stalwart for the Chicago Bears franchise since 2008, former Pro Bowl running back Matt Forte is the best talent that should be available this trade deadline. At 29 years old, he continues to be a productive player for the Bears. But a potential overhaul this coming offseason and his expiring contract make him a likely candidate to depart anyway.
There’s been little to no drop-off in Forte’s play this year despite a bad team around him. He’s totaled 438 yards on the ground and another 171 as a receiver. His unique skill set can fit any offense. He’s an instant upgrade for a majority of teams in the short term.
The Bears have won two straight, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll claw into the playoff picture anytime this season. Barring an injury to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers before the deadline, Chicago should maximize its draft assets for the 2016 class. Moving Forte would accomplish that.
Another benefit of moving Forte is the financial relief. Right now, the Bears have just $2 million in cap space. A Forte trade would open an additional $8.2 million in space, which can be rolled over into 2016. That would give Chicago just over $60 million to rebuild this roster next season.
Projected compensation: 3rd-rounder
Cameron Wake, DE, Miami Dolphins
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One of the best players to suit up for the Miami Dolphins in their 50-year history, the franchise has a decision to make on whether to keep the aging pass-rusher. Miami just fired its head coach and defensive coordinator, in large part to late-season breakdowns from the defense. Wake’s disappearance down the stretch in 2014 and his poor play thus far suggest Miami should get value while it can.
Wake has battled a hamstring injury, limiting him to 147 snaps and zero sacks. The 33-year-old's ability to play the run has also dipped, causing Miami to rotate Wake in and out more than ever. He’s more suited to be a part of a dangerous pass-rushing rotation than a full-time role in a 4-3 front.
Contenders should be interested in Wake because he has one more year on his contract, and his upside is elite. The disastrous start to 2015 may have held Wake from flourishing, and a bye week in Week 4 should help him heal. A Day 3 NFL draft pick could pay off in a big way for playoff contenders.
The Dolphins may not want to trade the man who has been the face of their franchise for seven seasons. There are considerable cap considerations that should entice Miami, though. Moving Wake would save $7.65 million this year and an additional $8.4 million in 2016. The Dolphins needs this, as their cap situation in 2016 could cause them to cut Wake if he’s not traded now.
Projected compensation: 4th-rounder
Sean Smith, CB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, cornerback Sean Smith’s return to the team after a three-game suspension wasn’t enough to stop their four-game losing streak. Kansas City has lost several close games, leaving it 1-4, and its season is all but over. It is time for the Chiefs to look forward to 2016.
Smith is an uber-talented cornerback who was an underrated player in 2014. His natural cover skills put him in the top 10 overall, but he doesn’t receive much media attention. His expiring contract at the end of the season seems to indicate the Chiefs are willing to move on without him.
Almost every team, including the Chiefs, needs cornerback help. But Smith will likely command nearly $70 million in free agency, so the Chiefs may want to sell now to get a 2016 draft pick. He’d easily be worth a third-round selection for anyone willing to rent or extend the 28-year-old.
Kansas City could roll over an additional $4.75 million by moving Smith. With upcoming free agents like Jaye Howard, Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry, the Chiefs will need every penny possible. Moving Smith now can help lock up those veterans.
Projected compensation: 3rd-rounder
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
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Despite owning a career average of 4.6 yards per carry, the Miami Dolphins simply haven’t used running back Lamar Miller nearly enough. Miller is just 24 and in a contract year, meaning he has lots of time left to be a productive player. His future in Miami sure seems murky, though.
Miller is an excellent back in the zone-blocking scheme. He developed from a great athlete into a patient, dangerous runner who takes advantage of overaggressive defenses. His vision and ability to suck linebackers near the line of scrimmage is underrated.
The problem is that his offense lacks any semblance of balance. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has refused to run the ball, even when Miami is within one score and the game is far from over. Lazor’s fixation on passing has crippled Miami’s offense and neutered an effective running game.
Unless things change soon, Miami should just cut ties with Miller and get value in return. Running backs aren’t overly valuable unless they’re elite, and Miller is not quite elite. He’s one of the better backs just outside of that distinction, though.
A new home could bring massive production from Miller. Imagine him in Dallas, Denver or Tennessee. He’d be an absolute stud if used like he should be.
Projected compensation: 4th-rounder
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
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One of a few remaining veterans after a tumultuous summer, 49ers tight end Vernon Davis should be the next to leave the Bay Area franchise. A free agent at the end of the season, there’s no reason for Davis to sink with this ship. The 49ers are far from competing, and Davis’ age (31) and high salary history should lead to a trade.
Davis is no longer that elite playmaking tight end, but he hasn’t had many chances to shine in this mundane offense. Putting him in a new environment and with a good quarterback could give his career a late second breath. Contenders such as Denver, Arizona, Green Bay and Atlanta should all be interested in Davis’ services.
Davis’ $6.97 million salary presents some issues for some contenders, but contracts can be reworked if needed to make a deal happen. The 49ers have ample space open next season, but they will need it to upgrade the rest of the roster. Another $4.9 million would only help.
San Francisco would be wise to get a Day 3 pick for Davis. He won’t help the Niners' rebuilding process hasten, and the franchise can help him get into a better situation. A trade to a contender makes too much sense.
Projected compensation: 5th-rounder
Pierre Desir, CB, Cleveland Browns
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The player with the highest projected compensation is Pierre Desir, cornerback for the Cleveland Browns. A fourth-round pick in 2014, Desir was a steal for the Browns. Despite his strong play, the Browns continue to play their highly paid, underperforming group of corners in front of Desir.
Every team needs a cornerback—especially when that corner has elite height, speed and good ball skills. But the Browns are loaded at the position after heavily investing. A second-round pick would be of more value to the team.
Desir could start for about half the teams in the league, based off his tape. With only a $611,903 cap hit, he’s affordable for two more seasons. Every team can take the 25-year-old's salary in without any issues.
When the draft comes around, teams will not be able to get a cornerback as good as Desir in the second round. Getting him now means he can learn the playbook and help down the stretch and into the future. Even non-contenders should be interested.
Projected compensation: 2nd-rounder
Haloti Ngata, NT, Detroit Lions
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The Detroit Lions have had some bad luck en route to a winless start to the season. That could lead to a complete rebuild for a team that has major question marks at several key positions. By selling off their older players now, the Lions can collect some draft assets.
Acquiring nose tackle Haloti Ngata was a minor move considering his limited snap count and advanced age, but the 31-year-old has been decent when he plays. Teams needing another body in the trenches could certainly do worse than trading for Ngata. He’s still a handful for interior linemen to handle.
Since he’s carrying an $8.5 million price tag, he shouldn’t cost much to acquire. Detroit could use that money to roll over into 2016 and help replenish the roster. Ngata’s impact at this point doesn’t matter.
Teams that should call Detroit include Oakland, Green Bay and Indianapolis. His huge cap hit could lead to a release, which means he could sign cheaper elsewhere. But the Lions should be on the phone trying to peddle him off to the highest bidder.
Projected compensation: 6th-rounder
Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins
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Although the Washington Redskins are still in the thick of the NFC East playoff race, they may want to consider moving their star back. Once again, as fantasy football players know, the Redskins have turned to a three-headed monster in the backfield. This has left Alfred Morris in a much smaller role than he can handle.
Morris isn’t flashy or overly dynamic, but he gets tough yards and is consistent. He’s also cheap, with just a $1.5 million cap hit in his contract season.
A contender like the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos or Carolina Panthers could use Morris. He’s able to fit the zone-blocking system and wear defenses down and control the ball. His career average of 4.5 yards per carry is among the best in the NFL. Every team should want that.
His production has dipped in every season since his rookie year, which is why he gets a lower price tag than Lamar Miller. This is because his situation has been poor for production, but he’s also been worked hard and taken a lot of hits. His next contract will likely only last two or three years, as he’s 26 years old.
Projected compensation: 5th-rounder
All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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