NFL Week 5 Picks: Predictions, Vegas Odds Before Thursday Night

Just like that, a quarter of the 2015 NFL season is consigned to the past. Already, some of the narratives that drove the 2014 campaign have been flipped completely. 

The NFC South, which last year sent a Carolina squad with a 7-8-1 record to the postseason, now boasts two of the league's six undefeated teams in Atlanta and Carolina. 

While last year was the year of the rookie wide receiver, with the likes of Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin and Jarvis Landry (among others) making immediate impacts, there has only been one such wideout this year: Oakland's Amari Cooper. 

The cult of Chip Kelly was going strong after he steered Philadelphia to a 10-6 record in only his second year with the team. Now, with the Eagles sputtering to a 1-3 start, his unorthodox machinations no longer look like they are going to bring a sea change to the league anytime soon.

Sure, some things have remained the same. New England is undefeated, Aaron Rodgers is mastering the quarterback position like few (if anyone) ever has and Cleveland has managed to disappoint somehow.

Here are the odds and predictions for every Week 5 game before Thursday night. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of October 8 at 7 a.m. ET.

Thursday, October 8
Sunday, October 11
Monday, October 12
Time (ET)	Away	Home	Over/Under	Prediction
8:25 p.m.	Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans (-2.5)	44.5	HOU 21-20 IND
1 p.m.	Chicago Bears	Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)	44	KC 28-17 CHI
1 p.m.	Seattle Seahawks	Cincinnati Bengals (-3)	43	CIN 24-18 SEA
1 p.m.	Washington Redskins	Atlanta Falcons (-8)	47.5	ATL 31-22 WAS
1 p.m.	Jacksonville Jaguars	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)	42	JAX 21-13 TB
1 p.m.	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)	49.5	PHI 25-20 NO
1 p.m.	Cleveland Browns	Baltimore Ravens (-7)	43	BAL 28-20 CLE
1 p.m.	St. Louis Rams	Green Bay Packers (-10)	45.5	GB 23-19 STL
1 p.m.	Buffalo Bills (-1)	Tennessee Titans	41.5	BUF 26-13 TEN
4:05 p.m.	Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)	Detroit Lions	44	AZ 30-24 DET
4:05 p.m.	New England Patriots (-10)	Dallas Cowboys	49.5	NE 38-24 DAL
4:25 p.m.	Denver Broncos (-4.5)	Oakland Raiders	43.5	DEN 21-14 OAK
8:30 p.m.	San Francisco 49ers	New York Giants (-7)	43	NYG 24-14 SF
8:30 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers (-3)	45.5	SD 28-27 PIT

Prime-time Previews

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

Colin Kaepernick's struggles are very real, and very bad news for San Francisco, even against a team as non-threatening as the New York Giants. 

He's had one adequate start and three dreadful ones in four games this season. The 49ers offense has cratered as a result. It has 48 points from four games. The next lowest-scoring team is Jacksonville, with 62 points—and Blake Bortles is playing better than Kap.

Week, Opponent	COMP/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
1, Minnesota	17/26	165	6.35	0	0	75.8
2, Pittsburgh	33/46	335	7.28	2	0	44.8
3, Arizona	9/19	67	3.53	0	4	3.2
4, Green Bay	13/25	160	6.40	0	1	20.1

It doesn't help that Carlos Hyde's performance has also dropped off considerably after a breathtaking start to the season. In Week 1, he ran for 168 yards. He has 114 yards rushing in the three weeks since. 

Kaepernick has the physical tools to dig himself out from this rut. The Giants have picked up just five sacks this season. The nonexistent pass rush is mitigated by a robust run defense, but a game without pressure could be what Kaepernick needs to get his mojo back. A ball-control offense mixing in runs from Kaepernick and Hyde might be a good strategy against New York.

Kaepernick hasn't thrown the ball downfield much—just six completions on throws of at least five yards, per ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez—so the quick-strike capacity doesn't seem to be there. 

The Dallas Cowboys strung together several long drives against them in Week 1 and would've had a much easier time had they not turned the ball over in key moments.

The Giants should be coming into the game with confidence, playing at home and notching a surprise Week 4 win against a very good Buffalo Bills squad.

Beckham Jr. hasn't been quite as electrifying as he was last year, but he will be the main target for Eli Manning. The Giants quarterback has a tough task against a 49ers secondary that managed quite well against Aaron Rodgers in Week 4, limiting him to one touchdown and 224 yards passing.

The run game will be key to the Giants' success. San Francisco is giving up 4.5 yards per carry, and the Giants have three capable backs in Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Andre Williams. 

Jennings gave the offensive line credit in a tough game against a dangerous Bills front in Week 4, one that is far more talented than San Francisco's.

“That was a good defense we went against,’’ Jennings said, via Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post. “They gave us a plethora of blitzes and formations that we had to adjust to. They’re a physical front. The offensive line did a great job handling them and putting us in positions for the running backs to fight for extra yards. We’ve got to continue to build on that.’’

First-year head coach Jim Tomsula was destined to struggle with the exodus of talent from the Bay Area this summer. However, the season has been especially trying with his offensive stars struggling and the run defense not playing well, despite fine play from linebacker NaVorro Bowman. 

The Giants should be able to pound the ball and put Manning in manageable situations on second and third downs, allowing the offense to outpace San Francisco's struggling attack.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers put plenty of life into their season with a 30-27 home win over Cleveland in Week 4. Injuries have already taken quite the toll on this squad. Three starting offensive linemen were out for that game, as was starting cornerback Jason Verrett and eventually his partner in crime, Brandon Flowers, who left the game with a concussion.

Still, Philip Rivers managed to outduel Josh McCown in a shootout (as he should), and San Diego came away with the crucial win. 

The secondary faces a much more talented offense in Pittsburgh. Nobody on Cleveland is as talented as the likes of Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, who is returning from a four-game suspension. The second-year man could provide a deep threat for quarterback Michael Vick, per Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: 

"

Bryant’s forte is running deep and Vick discovered that quickly after joining the Steelers Aug. 25. His first pass with the Steelers was a 63-yarder to Bryant in a preseason game Aug. 29 at Buffalo. The two hooked up for three passes and 138 yards that game, not counting a pass interference penalty in the end zone Bryant drew.

"

Bryant's size (6'5") could prove troublesome for San Diego. Both Verrett and Flowers are well under 6'0" and listed on the Chargers.com injury report as probable and questionable, respectively. This could make for a tough game for star safety Eric Weddle, who will likely find it difficult to play his stellar run-support role if he's busy keeping track of Brown and Bryant out on the flanks. 

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

With Pittsburgh in great shape to score, Rivers will have to work more of his magic in Week 5. He has fine options in Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead and Stevie Johnson in the passing game, a group boosted by the return of tight end Antonio Gates from suspension. The 35-year-old is refreshed and ready to go, via Chargers.com's Ricky Henne:

"

Frank had a term about rebooting, and that’s kind of basically what I’ve done. It’s like it’s all new again.  It’s a new fresh start, and you have to come in and establish yourself all over again.  Even though guys know me, have been around me and know the kind of person I am, that still doesn’t discredit the fact that you have to come out and do it. So I’m back ready to reestablish who I am as a player and who I am as a person.

"

With the offensive line still a mess, Rivers could use a player like Gates, an expert at finding the soft spots in zone coverage and still a difficult man matchup against smaller players in the secondary. Pittsburgh's pass defense has not been up to snuff this year, allowing opposing QBs a 100.4 rating, per ESPN.com.

San Diego's own defense has been mediocre at best for much of this season, however (27.5 points per game allowed). The key to this game will be the Bolts pass rush forcing Vick into mistakes. If it can do that, Rivers can pull through in another shootout.