Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 7, 2015

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning throws during an NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings Sunday, Oct. 4, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

The Denver Broncos own the recent rivalry with the Oakland Raiders, winning the last seven meetings in a row by an average of 22 points, going 6-1 against the spread. But the Raiders have revenge in mind and will try to put an end to that losing streak when they host the unbeaten Broncos Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as six-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.4-20.1 Raiders

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver is off to a 4-0 start to this season, 3-1 ATS, after outlasting Minnesota last week 23-20. The Broncos led the Vikings 10-0 and 20-10, allowed the Vikes to tie the game at 20, but then drove 55 yards for what turned out to be the game-winning field goal.

Minnesota then drove to midfield in the final half-minute, but Denver safety T.J. Ward forced a Teddy Bridgewater fumble, and Von Miller jumped on it to seal the victory. On the day, the Broncos outrushed the Vikings 144-113 with help from a 72-yard scoring jaunt by Ronnie Hillman.

Denver couldn't hold on for the cover as a seven-point favorite last week. However, it has already covered five points against Baltimore and three points at Detroit and won outright as a three-point dog at Kansas City. Last year, the Broncos swept the season series from Oakland by an average score of 44-16, covering at 13 and 16 points.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

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The Raiders opened this season, their first under new head coach Jack Del Rio, with a bad loss at home to the Cincinnati but have improved since. They came up with a big effort in an upset of Baltimore, then snapped an 11-game road losing streak with a 27-20 victory at Cleveland. Last week, Oakland almost made it two in a row on the road but lost on a long field goal on the final play of the game at Chicago 22-20.

The Raiders took a 20-19 lead with two minutes to go last week on a Sebastian Janikowski field goal and forced the Bears into a 4th-and-5 situation a few moments later, but they gave up a first down on a Jay Cutler pass, then two more, leading to Chicago's game-winning kick.

Realistically, Oakland is just one play from being 3-1 both straight up and ATS this season.

Smart pick

Denver pounded Oakland twice last year, but the Broncos aren't quite the machine they were then, while the Raiders aren't quite the same doormats. The smart money in this spot resides with the divisional home dog.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Raiders.

The Raiders are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games before the bye.

The Raiders are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

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