NFL Predictions Week 5: Odds, Predictions and Advice for Ideal Underdogs

As tends to be the case in a league built on parity, the NFL has produced plenty of upsets and surprising outcomes in 2015 that should only continue as we march forward to Week 5.

Sputtering starts from the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins have proved it's not wise to cast too much judgment before the season, while squads such as the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons have shown not to count out the teams flying under the radar. There are plenty of those across the Week 5 slate that aren't getting the attention they deserve and some that could shock both NFL fans and bettors alike—starting with Thursday Night Football.

Let's take a glance at some upset picks worth looking toward to in Week 5.

NFL Week 5 Odds

Game	Spread	Predicted Winner
Indianapolis at Houston	Even	IND 27-17
Washington at Atlanta	ATL -8	ATL 28-20
Cleveland at Baltimore	BAL -7	BAL 23-20
Seattle at Cincinnati	CIN -2.5	SEA 23-18
St. Louis at Green Bay	GB -9.5	GB 31-21
Chicago at Kansas City	KC -10.5	KC 20-13
New Orleans at Philadelphia	PHI -4	PHI 24-21
Jacksonville at Tampa Bay	TB -3	JAX 24-17
Buffalo at Tennessee	BUF -1	TEN 24-23
Arizona at Detroit	ARI -3	DET 17-14
New England at Dallas	NE -7.5	NE 31-14
Denver at Oakland	DEN -6	DEN 20-14
San Francisco at New York Giants	NYG -7	NYG 30-14
Pittsburgh at San Diego	SD -3	SD 28-21

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Upset Picks and Advice

Detroit Lions (+3) over Arizona Cardinals

It's a tough one to make, considering the Detroit Lions are a lowly 0-4 and the Arizona Cardinals are oh-so-close to being 4-0. Two teams headed in different directions will prove to be more evenly matched than expected on Sunday.

A poor start to the season from Matthew Stafford has doomed the Lions offense, which has as much to do with their league-worst rushing attack as it does his own struggles. Upon first glance, it's hard to imagine him improving against a Cardinals defense that has already forced seven interceptions.

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

But with the way the Lions defense is hawking toward the ball, Stafford doesn't need a huge day. Detroit flexed its defensive muscle on Monday night against the Seattle Seahawks, holding Russell Wilson and Co. to just 13 points—and more importantly, recovering two late fumbles and returning one for a touchdown.

What's turning into a boisterous pass rush led by Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah—who leads the NFL with four sacks—will feast on the Cardinals, who allowed four sacks to the St. Louis Rams last week. A much-improved secondary will take away the threat of Larry Fitzgerald and turn this into a defensive struggle.

It's been a woeful start for Detroit, but as the only team (again) in the NFL left without a win, as Andrew Siciliano of NFL Network reported, they should have a fire lit under them Sunday:

Odds Shark's over-under line of 44 will turn out to be much too generous in this one. Detroit can't expect to put up 20 points with this struggling, one-dimensional offense, while the Cardinals won't be able to get in their groove against the Lions' surging defensive unit.

That will leave it up to the most desperate team to make something of a tight game late, and there's no secret that's Detroit in this one.

Prediction: Lions win, 17-14.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

These aren't your older sibling's Jacksonville Jaguars—and especially not the Jaguars that you remember from being the league's floor mat over the last several years. 

Yes, these Jaguars are a much different unit that is beginning to show signs that the years of rebuilding and roster tinkering were actually for good. They do have a 51-17 loss to the New England Patriots—that was the Patriots, mind you—and a crushing 16-13 overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts in which Jason Myers kicked the Jags' way out of the game.

After a tough schedule to start the season, Jacksonville gets somewhat of a reprieve in finishing its three-game road stand against fellow 1-3 squad Tampa Bay. It's a Buccaneers team that hasn't topped the Jags in years, as Kevin O'Donnell of Fox 13 (Tampa Bay) reported:

This Buccaneers team is considerably worse than many of those units that fell to Jacksonville over the last 20 or so years. With rookie quarterback Jameis Winston leading the offense, a defensive resurgence was needed.

Instead, the Bucs are third worst against the run so far in the season. They have somewhat stymied that by allowing just 185.5 passing yards per game but have allowed eight passing scores so far to cancel that out.

With the Jags defense far from elite as well, this one will come down to which quarterback can take care of the ball the most. And there's no doubt it will be Blake Bortles, who is doing a great job of limiting turnovers, as Greg Auman of Tampa Bay Times reported:

Meanwhile, Winston's interception proficiency has followed him from his college days, as many expected. He does have six touchdown tosses so far but has even more interceptions (seven) and is only completing 54.9 percent of his passes. 

Bortles and the Jags have the rushing attack that Tampa Bay hasn't been able to find, as T.J. Yeldon scampered for his first 100-yard game in the NFL in Week 4 against the Colts. Expect more of the same, as the Jaguars show their marked improvement on offense and take this one.

Prediction: Jaguars win, 24-17.

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