Russian Grand Prix 2015: 5 Bold Predictions for Sochi Race
The inaugural Russian Grand Prix had plenty of drama and excitement on the first lap but then not much else—at least until Russian president Vladimir Putin's mid-race arrival.
On the first lap of the 2014 race, Nico Rosberg tried to pass his Mercedes team-mate, Lewis Hamilton, into Turn 2, but he locked his brakes and missed the corner, ruining his tyres in the process.
From that point, Hamilton drifted off into the distance, while Rosberg pitted at the end of the first lap and then spent the rest of the race working his way back to second place.
The flat, sterile track was criticised for not providing a good show, and the fact that Rosberg was able to run almost an entire race distance on a single set of tyres underscored the relative ease with which the drivers were lapping the Sochi Autodrom.
With low expectations for this year's race, perhaps Sochi will throw up a surprise or two. Here are five bold predictions for what those surprises might be.
A More Exciting Race
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OK, maybe that isn't saying much. It would be nearly impossible to have a less exciting race than the 2014 edition. But there are a couple specific reasons for optimism.
First, the BBC is forecasting rain: lighter on Saturday, heavier on Sunday. That could give Ferrari—and perhaps even Williams or Red Bull—the opportunity to pull off a surprise in qualifying.
Or maybe Mercedes' advantage will still be too great to be overcome by a bit of rain. But even if the Mercs are at the front, the battle between them should be very interesting.
We were robbed of a close fight between Hamilton and Rosberg at the Japanese Grand Prix, but Rosberg will be getting desperate now. He is 48 points behind his team-mate with just five rounds remaining, and his title hopes are slipping away. He has to make something happen.
"I'm not backing down in my fight for the championship," Rosberg said in Mercedes' Russian race preview.
Yes, Hamilton has proved repeatedly that he is the better driver when the two go head-to-head, but even if he does beat Rosberg again, it should be closer and more interesting than last year.
Sebastian Vettel Will Be the Winning Driver
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We predicted a victory for Rosberg in Japan, and everything looked to be going his way...at least until the race started.
With the knowledge that picking Hamilton for the win can never be considered a bold prediction—not in these Merc-dominated times—this week we are backing Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel to bring home his fourth victory of the year.
Especially with rain in the forecast and with Hamilton's qualifying spell broken, the German former champ should have an opportunity to stick his nose in with the Silver Arrows.
Also, Mercedes have started showing surprising reliability issues at the last few races. In Italy, Rosberg retired with a blown engine. In Singapore, it was Hamilton's turn, with a failed turbo. Finally, in Japan, Rosberg managed to finish second, but his engine was not operating at full power.
With Vettel secure in third place in the drivers' standings, but with quickly fading title hopes, he can afford to take chances. And if Vettel can grab the lead at the start, he should just be able to stay there.
Daniil Kvyat Will Give the Home Fans Something to Get Excited About
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Last year in Sochi, Daniil Kvyat qualified his Toro Rosso fifth on the grid. It was a great moment for him and for the Russian fans. Unfortunately, it was not indicative of his true pace around the Olympic Park circuit and he slumped to a 14th-place finish, one lap behind Hamilton and the other leaders.
"Qualifying was great but the race was just... how can I say this... well, it was crap," Kvyat recalled for Red Bull's race preview. "We had problems with fuel consumption during the race and it was just a really disappointing day."
This year, promoted to Red Bull, Kvyat has delivered several impressive performances. He has even outdriven his team-mate, 2014 breakout star Daniel Ricciardo, at some events.
A podium in Sochi is asking too much without a bunch of retirements, but the Bulls should recover from their worst race of the season in Japan and Kvyat will be back in the points.
His average finishing position this year (leaving aside his lone retirement in China) is 7.83, and seventh or eighth seems like a realistic result here, although rain might give him a chance to push higher up the finishing order.
However, before getting too optimistic, we should also recall that drivers actually tend to underperform slightly at their home races, compared to their results elsewhere. Still, the Russian fans should have something to cheer on Sunday this year.
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A Return to the Podium for Valtteri Bottas
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Valtteri Bottas has one podium finish this year. One. A third-place finish in Canada.
After a fantastic 2014 campaign, where he finished on the podium six times, it seemed this would be the year Bottas would score his maiden victory. Instead, Williams have struggled to keep up in the development race.
Despite looking a solid third in the constructors' championship, the team have lacked the kind of eye-opening results they produced last year— for example, when Felipe Massa chased Hamilton to the finish in Abu Dhabi.
Bottas has been in solid form lately, though, finishing fourth, fifth and fifth in the last three races. All it will take is a small mistake or some mechanical failure among the front-runners to put him back on the podium in Sochi.
The Finn was third last year in Sochi, a circuit that seemed to suit the Williams, and he was actually a bit disappointed with that result.
"We went into the race today with the mentality that we were going to fight Mercedes for the win, but their pace in the race surprised us a bit and in the end we need to be satisfied with third place and another podium," he said afterward, per Sky Sports.
Look for Bottas back on the podium on Sunday afternoon.
Top Rookie: Max Verstappen
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As the season progresses, Toro Rosso's Max Verstappen has begun to distance himself from a talented rookie field.
Felipe Nasr started strong but has been hamstrung by a disappointing Sauber car. Meanwhile, Verstappen's team-mate Carlos Sainz has driven well—probably better than anyone outside his immediate family expected—but he has not quite been able to measure up to the boy wonder in the neighbouring garage.
Verstappen turned 18 last week and got his driver's licence to celebrate:
"Legal to drive. Born to race! #driverlicense pic.twitter.com/rofgrA9jKp
— Max Verstappen (@Max33Verstappen) September 30, 2015"
He arrives in Sochi with a record of five points-scoring finishes in the last seven races and all the pressure on Sainz, as my colleague Oliver Harden observed.
After producing impressive recovery drives from the back of the field at the last two races, if Verstappen can get through qualifying and the race start cleanly, he could be on for a very good result in Sochi.
There are definitely overtaking opportunities around the Olympic Park, and the youngest driver in F1 history has already proved himself a master of that particular skill.
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