Week 4 NFL Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions for Sunday's Schedule

Week 4 can be dangerous for handicappers.

After three games, we often have a solid idea of what each team is capable of doing this season in the NFL. After a full summer of preseason games and three regular-season games, we have seen quite a bit and have a lot of information to digest.

But the fourth week of the season is vital. By the time teams have played four games and a full 25 percent of their regular-season schedule, the picture is nearly complete. Factors like injuries, execution and how well players get along with each other will determine how teams play each week, but we will have the full picture of a team's overall talent level.

Three games does not provide a full picture. You may think you know enough to handicap a game and say you are sure, but you are in the final stages of accumulating information. There's a good reason to make limited plays and not try to shoot high this week.

We will look at all the games on the Sunday and Monday schedule and offer you selections, as well as go over some of the more interesting prop bets. All odds are courtesy of OddsShark.

Game	Line	Over/Under	Prediction
N.Y. Jets vs. Miami (London)	NYJ -2	42.5	Miami; Under
N.Y. Giants at Buffalo	Buff. -5.5	45.5	N.Y.Giants; Over
Oakland at Chicago	Oak. -3	44	Oakland; Under
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	Ind. -9.5	48	Indianapolis; Over
Houston at Atlanta	Atl. -5.5	47	Atlanta; Under
Carolina at Tampa Bay	Car. -3	39.5	Tampa Bay; Under
Kansas City at Cincinnati	Cin. -3	45	Cincinnati; Over
Philadelphia at Washington	Phil. -2.5	44	Philadelphia; Over
Cleveland at San Diego	SD -7.5	44.5	San Diego; Under
Minnesota at Denver	Den. -7	42.5	Minnesota; Under
Green Bay at San Francisco	GB -8	48	San Francisco; Under
St. Louis at Arizona	Ariz. -7.5	44.5	Arizona; Under
Dallas at New Orleans	NO -3	47.5	Dallas; Under
Detroit at Seattle	Sea. -10.5	43	Detroit; Under

Bengals continue early-season run

The undefeated Cincinnati Bengals look like they belong with the best teams in the league, as they have been impressive early in the season.

We think we know this team, however. The combination of head coach Marvin Lewis and quarterback Andy Dalton has been unable to win playoff games, and the Bengals regularly disappoint when the money is on the table.

Is this the year they turn that around? Probably not, but we do believe that the Bengals are quite sharp at this point in the season and have the game to make it four in a row as they host the disappointing Kansas City Chiefs.

Here's the problem for Kansas City. Their secondary has been vulnerable through three weeks, as they rank 28th against the pass. That's the kind of pass defense that Dalton should be able to take advantage of. He has completed 61 of 92 passes, and it's time to ride out the hot streak.

The Chiefs suffered a painful last-second defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 2, and they looked like they were still feeling the pain when they dropped their Week 3 game at Green Bay.

Even if head coach Andy Reid can get a better effort out of his players, it's difficult to see Alex Smith matching Dalton. The Chiefs simply don't have receiving weapons like A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, and Smith is not a strong downfield passer. 

We like the Bengals to cover the three-point spread at home.

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Broncos defense will shut down Vikings

The NFL is a very tough league to figure out.

Every week, handicappers start digesting the lines and try to come up with a big play or two on the schedule. Most weeks, there are a couple of games that stand out on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. However, when Sunday finally comes, that game that seemed so obvious doesn't often play out the way it looked earlier in the week.

The Minnesota-Denver game fits that bill. The Vikings played two fairly credible games in beating the Lions and Chargers at home in Weeks 2 and 3. However, when they were on the road in Week 1, they were taken apart by the San Francisco 49ers.

The Vikings have the look of a team that can play well at home but not on the road. If they could not play in San Francisco, how are they going to play in the Mile-High city against the undefeated Broncos?

Denver has the fastest and most aggressive defense in the league, and the stats bear this out. The Broncos rank first in overall defense and first against the pass. 

The Vikings are going to try to attack with running back Adrian Peterson, and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips knows this. He is going to dare Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to beat him through the air.

This is unlikely, since Bridgewater lacks the arm strength to throw over the top of the Denver defense consistently.

Peyton Manning may have his own shortcomings when it comes to arm strength, but his intelligence and savvy can see him through here against a lesser opponent. The Broncos will force Bridgewater into mistakes, and Manning will take advantage of them. The Broncos will have no trouble covering the seven-point spread.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Niners to keep it close against Packers

This is another game that underscores why it is so difficult to win the handicapping game in the NFL.

Take a look at the coach-quarterback combinations for both teams. Mike McCarthy is one of the brightest minds in the league, and he has built a brilliant partnership with Aaron Rodgers. While those two may take a back seat to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, it's hard to find another combination that has an edge.

On the San Francisco side, Jim Tomsula is unproven as a head coach, and after leading his team to a win in the opener, the Niners have been pummeled the last two weeks by the Steelers and the Cardinals. Colin Kaepernick continues to look befuddled under center, and he hasn't been able to right the ship.

This appears to be an easy game for the Packers, right? Not so fast.

Green Bay has played and won three straight emotional games, and it's difficult for any team to play at an emotional peak every week. A look at the schedule shows the Packers will be home for the next two weeks after this game, and we expect to see their best efforts in those games before Green Bay has its bye week.

The Niners played very well in beating Minnesota at home in Week 1, and we expect them to play more competitively at Levi's Stadium. They may not win the game, but they will cover the eight-point impost that they face.

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Falcons' Jones featured in Prop Bets

You may have noticed that Atlanta wide receiver Julio Jones has gotten off to a remarkable start this season in leading his team to a 3-0 record.

Jones has already caught 34 passes, and he is quarterback Matt Ryan's lifeline.

Las Vegas has noticed the superb start the Atlanta receiver has had, and he is being featured in season-long prop bests, as well as one for this week's game against the Houston Texans.

According to OddsShark, handicappers can bet that Jones will have 135 or more receiving yards in this week's game, and if he does, get a return of plus-250. Those who bet that he won't reach that yardage total have to lay minus-400.

Those who believe that Jones will break Marvin Harrison's single-season reception record of 143 pass receptions can bet on that prop and receive a return of plus-300. Those who believe that he won't reach Harrison's level have to lay minus-500.