Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts will try to continue their dominance of the AFC South when they go for their sixth straight win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. The Colts have gone 5-0 against the spread in winning the past five meetings with the Jaguars and are also 12-1-1 versus the line in their previous 14 playing divisional foes.

Point spread: The Colts opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.7-18.5 Colts

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Is Jacksonville the same lousy team that has been rewarded for a poor season almost annually with a high draft pick? This is the game where we will learn a lot about the Jaguars after they were blown out badly by the New England Patriots 51-17 last Sunday. You can’t judge them solely by their performance at New England because just the week before they beat the Miami Dolphins 23-20 as 5.5-point home underdogs.

Indianapolis struggled to beat the Tennessee Titans on the road last week and could very well be 0-3 if it wasn’t for Andrew Luck’s fourth-quarter heroics, turning a 27-14 deficit into a 35-33 victory. The Colts might be the two-time defending division champs, but they certainly aren’t playing like it right now despite earning their first win.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indy hopes that furious fourth-quarter rally led by Luck finally woke up the team for good. Two of the first three games were played in tough stadiums on the road, and Jacksonville’s defense is not anything close to the one the Colts faced in their lone home game so far when the New York Jets shut them down in their Monday night matchup.

After this game, Indianapolis will have two weeks to prepare for a rematch of the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots at home, including a bye. The Colts need to polish up their flaws here while they can so they will be ready to host the defending Super Bowl champs. Pounding the Jaguars again would be a good start.

Smart pick

As mentioned earlier, time is of the essence for Indy if it hopes to win a third straight AFC South crown. Wins over Jacksonville and against the Houston Texans on the road next week will put the Colts right back in position to take the division following their second consecutive 0-2 start. The Jaguars may be a slightly better team this year, but they are still no match for a very motivated Indianapolis team that will win by double digits here.

Betting trends

The Colts are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games as road underdogs.

The Colts are 14-0 SU and 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.