Fantasy Football Week 4: Top 100 Players' Updated Trade Value and Advice

There comes a point in the fantasy season when you have to start throwing away your preseason expectations of a player and simply start looking at the production on the field. For me, that point is generally after the first three weeks of the season.

Yes, there are players you expect to post bigger numbers going forward. Yes, there are players you know—based on past performances, or an overreliance on receiving touchdowns, or some other pattern you've seen before—that you assume will see their value take a hit.

But in general, you have to also start trusting your eyes when determining a player's trade value. And after three weeks, we finally have a pretty solid sample size to do just that. So without further ado, here's my trade value chart for Week 4 of the NFL season.

Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
Rank	Player	Position	Team	Trade Value
1	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers	11
2	Marshawn Lynch	RB	Seattle Seahawks	11
3	Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota Vikings	11
4	Eddie Lacy	RB	Green Bay Packers	11
5	Jamaal Charles	RB	Kansas City Chiefs	11
6	Matt Forte	RB	Chicago Bears	11
7	Rob Gronkowski	TE	New England Patriots	10
8	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Green Bay Packers	10
9	DeMarco Murray	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	9
10	LeSean McCoy	RB	Buffalo Bills	9
11	Carlos Hyde	RB	San Francisco 49ers	9
12	Julio Jones	WR	Atlanta Falcons	9
13	Demaryius Thomas	WR	Denver Broncos	9
14	Mark Ingram	RB	New Orleans Saints	9
15	Antonio Brown	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers	9
16	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	New York Giants	8
17	A.J. Green	WR	Cincinnati Bengals	8
18	Randall Cobb	WR	Green Bay Packers	8
19	Calvin Johnson	WR	Detroit Lions	8
20	Andrew Luck	QB	Indianapolis Colts	8
21	Arian Foster	RB	Houston Texans	8
22	Alshon Jeffery	WR	Chicago Bears	7
23	Mike Evans	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7
24	T.Y. Hilton	WR	Indianapolis Colts	7
25	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Houston Texans	7
26	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Denver Broncos	7
27	Tom Brady	QB	New England Patriots	7
28	Jeremy Hill	RB	Cincinnati Bengals	6
29	Giovani Bernard	RB	Cincinnati Bengals	6
30	Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders	6
31	Brandon Marshall	WR	New York Jets	6
32	Frank Gore	RB	Indianapolis Colts	6
33	Chris Ivory	RB	New York Jets	6
34	T.J. Yeldon	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
35	Jimmy Graham	TE	Seattle Seahawks	6
36	Greg Olsen	TE	Carolina Panthers	6
37	Travis Kelce	TE	Kansas City Chiefs	6
38	Sammy Watkins	WR	Buffalo Bills	6
39	Keenan Allen	WR	San Diego Chargers	6
40	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	6
41	Julian Edelman	WR	New England Patriots	6
42	Melvin Gordon	RB	San Diego Chargers	6
43	Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens	5
44	Lamar Miller	RB	Miami Dolphins	5
45	LeGarrette Blount	RB	New England Patriots	5
46	Todd Gurley	RB	St. Louis Rams	5
47	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Arizona Cardinals	5
48	Amari Cooper	WR	Oakland Raiders	5
49	Russell Wilson	QB	Seattle Seahawks	5
50	Peyton Manning	QB	Denver Broncos	5
51	Ameer Abdullah	RB	Detroit Lions	5
52	Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins	5
53	Jordan Matthews	WR	Philadelphia Eagles	5
54	Brandin Cooks	WR	New Orleans Saints	5
55	Matt Jones	RB	Washington	4
56	Alfred Morris	RB	Washington	4
57	Golden Tate	WR	Detroit Lions	4
58	Vincent Jackson	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4
59	Steve Smith	WR	Baltimore Ravens	4
60	James Jones	WR	Green Bay Packers	4
61	Allen Robinson	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars	4
62	Joseph Randle	RB	Dallas Cowboys	4
63	Martellus Bennett	TE	Chicago Bears	3
64	Jason Witten	TE	Dallas Cowboys	3
65	Tyler Eifert	TE	Cincinnati Bengals	3
66	Bishop Sankey	RB	Tennessee Titans	3
67	Danny Woodhead	RB	San Diego Chargers	3
68	Eric Decker	WR	New York Jets	3
69	Kendall Wright	WR	Tennessee Titans	3
70	Terrance Williams	WR	Dallas Cowboys	3
71	Matt Ryan	QB	Atlanta Falcons	3
72	Cam Newton	QB	Carolina Panthers	3
73	Drew Brees	QB	New Orleans Saints	3
74	Jordan Cameron	TE	Miami Dolphins	3
75	DeSean Jackson	WR	Washington	3
76	Donte Moncrief	WR	Indianapolis Colts	3
77	Andre Ellington	RB	Arizona Cardinals	3
78	Torrey Smith	WR	San Francisco 49ers	2
79	Anquan Boldin	WR	San Francisco 49ers	2
80	Pierre Garcon	WR	Washington	2
81	John Brown	WR	Arizona Cardinals	2
82	Percy Harvin	WR	Buffalo Bills	2
83	Ryan Mathews	RB	Philadelphia Eagles	2
84	C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos	2
85	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Carolina Panthers	2
86	Dion Lewis	RB	New England Patriots	2
87	Devonta Freeman	RB	Atlanta Falcons	2
88	Tevin Coleman	RB	Atlanta Falcons	2
89	Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals	2
90	Eric Ebron	TE	Detroit Lions	2
91	Jordan Reed	TE	Washington	2
92	Zach Ertz	TE	Philadelphia Eagles	2
93	Rashad Jennings	RB	New York Giants	2
94	Andy Dalton	QB	Cincinnati Bengals	2
95	Chris Johnson	RB	Arizona Cardinals	2
96	Travis Benjamin	WR	Cleveland Browns	2
97	Isaiah Crowell	RB	Cleveland Browns	2
98	Michael Floyd	WR	Arizona Cardinals	2
99	Karlos Williams	RB	Buffalo Bills	2
100	Dez Bryant	WR	Dallas Cowboys	2

I want to, very quickly, separate some players into a few categories. The first will be players who have underachieved to this point, but who I expect to bounce back:

• DeMarco Murray
• LeSean McCoy
• Calvin Johnson
• Andrew Luck
• Jeremy Hill

These players haven't seen their value drop too much, in general, on my rankings. These are players I think you should hold onto or target in a trade if there is an antsy owner out there. 

Hill is probably the best example. To this point, he's been outplayed by Giovani Bernard, but the Bengals have also been throwing the ball with great success, which generally plays into Bernard's skill set. At some point, Cincy will turn back to grinding the ball out on the ground, which is when Hill will start shining again, much like he did down the stretch last year. 

If you are trying to pry Hill away from an impatient owner, these are the type of deals I think you might be able to pull off to acquire him:

• Golden Tate and John Brown
• Tyler Eifert and Kendall Wright
• Matt Ryan and Jason Witten
• Carson Palmer and Vincent Jackson

Will savvy owners balk at these deals? Of course—you're trying to lowball them with these offers. Hill's value right now should be about as low as it will be all season. But with Bernard playing well and the Bengals having a lot of success through the air, it's also important to concede that Hill's role with the team might be a bit reduced from last year. So you simply shouldn't be paying a RB1 price if you try to trade for him, at least not right now.

Let's break down a few players in the second category: Players who have underachieved and, at this point, are very hard to get a feel for going forward:

• Alfred Morris
• C.J. Anderson
• Michael Floyd
• Zach Ertz

The Broncos offense has been up and down under Gary Kubiak, and most surprising is the team's failure to run the ball with any success. At this point, I can't recommend trading or trading for Anderson, because I have no idea what is going on with him and Denver's running game. 

Coach Gary Kubiak seems a bit stumped by the team's running game, or lack thereof, as well.

If you have him, just be patient right now.

Morris is in a tricky situation. Matt Jones has been awesome for Washington this season and is a more dynamic talent than Morris, but the veteran back hasn't done anything in recent years to lose his job, either. My instinct on this one is that Morris is going to be in a timeshare for the rest of the season, but Washington may run the ball enough to still support the fantasy values of both backs. 

I'd recommend patience with Morris. But I'd also make sure I had another option as my RB2. 

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Floyd is in trouble. Larry Fitzgerald has been reborn this year in the slot, and John Brown is a dynamic player and deep threat whom Carson Palmer seems to really trust, so Floyd could find himself without a defined role in this offense. It's too early to bail on him, but I think he could end up being the odd man out in Arizona's passing offense.

As for Ertz, well, I have no idea. I really don't. The Eagles offense is a total mystery to me this year. Murray's start to the season is confounding. Nelson Agholor has been a non-factor. And Ertz just hasn't been that big of a priority. 

At this point, I think you have to treat him like a TE2 until he proves he can produce like a TE1. But I believe in his talent, and I believe Philly's offense is about to get untracked, so I'm not giving up on him yet.

Finally, let's talk about a few players who have seemingly overachieved and probably are going to come back down to earth:

• James Jones
• Danny Woodhead
• Andy Dalton 
• Travis Benjamin
• Devonta Freeman

Jones is going to have fantasy value all season long with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, but he's probably not going to finish with 21 touchdown receptions, which is his current pace and where the majority of his fantasy value has come from thus far (24 fantasy points from touchdowns, 20 points from receiving yards).

Woodhead's two touchdowns in Week 1 inflated his fantasy value, but moving forward, San Diego's backfield will be all about rookie Melvin Gordon. Woodhead is like Darren Sproles: He'll blow up from week to week, but he's never going to be a consistent option.

Dalton is on fire right now, but as discussed above, the Bengals will probably return to pounding the rock at some point. Still, buy low on Dalton if you still can and ride the hot streak while it lasts. 

The Browns need someone to throw to, so Benjamin may have flex appeal all season long. But like Jones, his scoring pace—four touchdowns after three games—isn't sustainable. 

As for Freeman, he's going to split carries with Tevin Coleman this year, which really neuters both player's fantasy upside. Also, just for context, the 37 points Freeman scored in standard leagues last week nearly eclipsed the 44 fantasy points he scored all of last year. So yes, it's pretty safe to call that performance an outlier. 

A few more thoughts for the road. Rodgers is the safest player in all of fantasy at this point, period. And he's the best player in the NFL, too.

If you drafted Rodgers early for the peace of mind, well, you're getting what you paid for and then some. 

Antonio Brown's fantasy value is going to take a hit with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined. It just will. Michael Vick just isn't anywhere near Big Ben's ability. Brown is still a WR1, for now, but don't be surprised if his numbers decline.

On the other hand, the Steelers will probably lean very heavily on Le'Veon Bell. He should be a fantasy force of nature during Roethlisberger's injury.

Fitzgerald's production is real so long as Carson Palmer is healthy. Fitzgerald has accepted a new role in the slot, and he has absolutely thrived. Don't sell high on Fitz right now—see if you can buy low.  

All fantasy stats via ESPN standard leagues. Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy questions and offer advice, too. It's more fun than sitting at the grownup's table with Ed Hochuli.