Where Has the Dominant Calvin Johnson Gone?

There’s nothing quiet or small about Calvin Johnson. Those aren’t adjectives we typically associate with the Detroit Lions wide receiver who stands 6’5” and weighs 237 pounds. He’s large physically, and usually has little trouble converting that into equally large production.

His blend of power and speed is best utilized deep, where Johnson can lay the hammer down on defensive backs to win battles for jump balls. Yet so far this season your odds of seeing a blood moon are better than catching a glimpse of Johnson with a football in his hands after it was heaved deep downfield.

Over three games Johnson has been targeted only once on a throw that traveled 20-plus yards through the air, according to Pro Football Focus. He's reeled in 20 receptions for 199 yards, which is perfectly adequate for merely normal receivers, but not for one with a Megatron moniker.

We don’t see a fading receiver when looking deeper into those numbers. No, we see the victim of both a fractured quarterback and a broken offensive line.

Most of all, we see a potentially fatal flaw for an offense that may already be circling the drain.

Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Johnson’s fall as a deep threat has been staggering. He’s averaged only 8.33 air yards per target this season, according to ESPN.com’s Michael Rothstein, who also noted that Johnson's single-season air yards per target has never dropped below 13.45.

In 2014, Johnson’s fifth straight 1,000-plus yard receiving season, he was targeted 30 times on balls that sailed 20-plus yards. He was on the other end for just over two deep shots per game, which seems about right when you have a mismatch creator who famously reached new athletic-freak levels with his 40-yard dash time of 4.35 seconds back in 2007.

Now we’re approaching the quarter pole of a new season, and Johnson is still sitting at only that one deep target. He's being misused without at minimum a handful of opportunities each game to stretch the field.

Looking back further, it’s clear that despite whatever other crumbling may or may not be happening for the Lions (the table below includes only two years with playoff appearances), properly utilizing a uniquely skilled receiver has always been a priority.

Year	Total +20 yard targets	average +20 yard targets per game
2014	30	2.3
2013	36	2.6
2012	46	2.9
2011	39	2.4
2010	41	2.7

Johnson played full 16-game seasons only twice during that span, missing three games in 2014, two in 2013 and one in 2010. Yet, when healthy, his deep-target volume remained high, especially in 2012 when he set a new single-season record for receiving yards (1,964).

During that record-setting season 23.1 percent of Johnson’s targets were of the deep variety, per PFF. And even throughout an injury-plagued 2014 season that rate remained steady at 23.4.

Johnson has never been solely a home run swinging receiver and a pure downfield burner. Using him in that manner would be unwise, too, which is why having deep targets account for roughly a quarter of his workload is the right balance.

The 2015 Lions are falling, well, a tiny bit short of that mark. After three games Johnson has been targeted 33 times, which is still plenty and ranks eighth among all wide receivers. The problem goes back to his lone deep look, which puts his 20-plus-yard target percentage at 3.0.

Which is why the crash you just heard in the distance was Johnson’s yards per catch.

Year	Yards/reception
2015	10.0
2014	15.2
2013	17.8
2012	16.1
2011	17.5

Johnson is entering Week 4 of his ninth NFL season, and his career per-catch average overall sits at 16.0, with the lowest single-season output coming back in 2010 (14.5).

After three games in 2014, Johnson had already accumulated 329 receiving yards while averaging 17.3 per reception. If we keep going with yet another (and final, I promise) year-to-year comparison, Johnson averaged 15.8 YPC after Week 3 in 2013, and 15.4 in 2012.

There’s certainly enough time for wrongs to be righted, and for the Lions to make the necessary adjustments while ensuring a game-altering wide receiver isn’t completely neutralized. Unfortunately, the root cause of Johnson's tumbling deep usage may not have a quick in-season solution. It’s the kind of problem far beyond a roster shuffling, scheme change or any other football equivalent of a duct-tape fix. 

Deep connections require time. They require time for the quarterback to set and launch, and time for the receiver to separate. And time has been in short supply whenever Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford drops back to scan the field.

Quarterback	Dropbacks under pressure	% of total dropbacks under pressure
Matthew Stafford	56	40.6
Ryan Tannehill	55	40.7
Russell Wilson	53	41.7
Andrew Luck	52	40.0
Alex Smith	48	39.3

Stafford has mostly managed to escape sacks, with four of the six he’s taken coming in one game against the Denver Broncos in Week 3.

But he hasn’t dodged a repeated pummeling, and he has a battered body to show for it. Stafford looked to be in significant pain following a Week 2 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, who also reported the 27-year-old needed X-rays on his ribs and chest.

The Lions are dealing with a bruised quarterback already, an offensive line that is struggling mightily to protect him and a five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver who’s being wasted as a result. Fun times!

Head coach Jim Caldwell said the lack of deep passing hasn’t been due to play design, noting that his team’s offense is structured to hit every area of the field.

"Pretty much every route we have, not every route but the great majority of them, has a deep component, an intermediate component and a dump-off," Caldwell told Rothstein. "What we try to do is work through the progression, and whatever they give us, we take."

Which returns us to the problem of time, and why a passing offense breaks down when there’s not enough of it.

Some quarterbacks seem to function at a higher level when faced with pressure, and even thrive in that atmosphere.

The Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson comes to mind immediately, along with the Denver Broncos’ Peyton Manning. They present two different but still effective ways of navigating pressure, with Wilson leaning on his athleticism to buy time while weaving around traffic and Manning relying on his keen field sense to release the ball quickly.

Stafford has done neither, and Johnson has suffered because of his inability to cope amid chaos.

The seventh-year starter has completed only 40.3 percent of his attempts while under pressure this season, per PFF. That ranks 25th out of the 30 passers who have taken at least 50 percent of their team’s dropbacks.

He has a passer rating of 58.5 when under pressure, and that jumps to 90.4 when the pocket is clean. For perspective to show how much damage Stafford’s panicked state is causing, let’s compare his lack of comfort under pressure to Philip Rivers’ relaxed approach.

The San Diego Chargers quarterback makes for a fine contrasting case next to Stafford. Much like the Lions' pivot who’s been under siege, Rivers has also faced a constant barrage of pass-rushers. He’s been pressured 46 times, which accounts for 40.4 percent of his dropbacks.

Note the vast difference between Stafford and Rivers as the pocket collapses:

Quarterback	Rating when not under pressure	Rating when under pressure
Matthew Stafford	90.4	58.5
Philip Rivers	109.9	81.2

The beat goes on with other similar comparisons reflecting poorly on Stafford, who has heavily contributed to Johnson's possession-receiver status.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been bombarded as well, facing pressure 55 times. Yet he’s completed 55.3 percent of his passes in that frantic environment, which is 14.5 points higher than Stafford’s completion percentage. Then there’s Wilson, who’s dealt with pressure on 53 of his dropbacks and completed 66.7 percent of his passes while doing it.

There are few breaks in the weeks ahead for Detroit. The Lions travel to Seattle in Week 4, a place where road wins go to die. Then among their opponents prior to a Week 9 bye are the Minnesota Vikings (tied for ninth in 2014 with 41 sacks), Kansas City Chiefs (fifth in 2014 with 46 sacks) and Arizona Cardinals (passer rating allowed of only 58.6 in 2015).

Meanwhile, as Stafford faces too much pressure and keeps crumbling, Johnson will keep waiting for his opportunities to drag a winless team from its current gutter residence. There’s a direct link between a wasted Megatron and a wasted season.