Fantasy Football Week 4: Preview and Predictions

The ink is still drying on Week 3, but it’s time to start looking forward to Week 4 of the fantasy football season. We'll preview key fantasy football matchups in Week 4—finding some breakouts and busts in the process—and list the top 10 players at each position.

Andrew Luck has been a major disappointment so far, but a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars has him near the top of the quarterback rankings once again. If he fails to put up Luck-like numbers in Week 4, it’ll officially be time to slide him down the charts.

Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman’s Week 3 outburst has earned him a spot in the top 10 heading into Week 4. The same is true for Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who had a vintage day vs. the 49ers.

All of this and more is inside.

QBs: Luck Gets One More Shot Near the Top

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Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck has completed just 56 percent of his passes this season for 753 yards. He has thrown more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five) and has failed to build a connection with newcomer Andre Johnson.

Despite all this, you should go back to the well once again in Week 4 with Luck squaring off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Indianapolis. He keeps his spot near the top of the rankings for at least one more week.

Cam Newton assumes the No. 3 slot after impressing in back-to-back games, while Carson Palmer continues to climb up the rankings.

Week 4’s Top 10 QBs

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB at SF)
2. Andrew Luck (IND vs. JAX)
3. Cam Newton (CAR at TB)
4. Russell Wilson (SEA vs. DET)
5. Peyton Manning (DEN vs. MIN)
6. Matt Ryan (ATL vs. HOU)
7. Carson Palmer (ARZ vs. STL)
8. Drew Brees (NO vs. DAL)
9. Philip Rivers (SD vs. CLV)
10. Ryan Tannehill (MIA vs. NYJ)

Breakout QB of the Week: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts 

Don’t give up on Luck just yet. As mentioned above, his Week 4 matchup against the Jaguars means he deserves at least one more chance near the top of the quarterback rankings. Jacksonville has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com, so Luck should, at the very least, be a top-10 quarterback in Week 4.

Luck is currently tied for the No. 20 spot in terms of fantasy points among quarterbacks despite ranking second at the position last season. He’s far too good to remain tied down for long. A breakout game at some point in the near future is assured, and Week 4 against the Jaguars—a team he shredded for 370 yards and four touchdowns in Week 3 of 2014—presents as good of an opportunity as he’ll get.

QB Bust of the Week: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

Bridgewater was supposed to break out this season, but so far he has only scored the (tied for) 27th-most points at the position. This means he’s not even performing at backup quarterback level.

Bridgewater has thrown only one touchdown through three games (although he has scored once on the ground as well), and there’s a good chance he fails to score in Week 4 as well.

The Broncos—Bridgewater’s opponent—have given up by far the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (4.3 points). Teams have only thrown one passing touchdown against Denver, and the Broncos have recorded six interceptions as well.

Bridgewater may be able to turn it around at some point this year, but he shouldn’t be in any starting lineups in Week 4.

RBs: Devonta Freeman Slips into Top 10

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Devonta Freeman

Arian Foster should be good to go in Week 4—Texans head coach Bill O’Brien said Foster is “close” to returning, per ESPN.com’s Tania Ganguli, and his matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who just gave up four rushing touchdowns to the Dallas Cowboys, gives him instant appeal on the fantasy front.

Le’Veon Bell may be asked to do more for the Steelers while Ben Roethlisberger is sidelined with knee troubles, so he remains in the top three despite the fact his ceiling is now a bit lower because Pittsburgh’s offense won’t be quite as explosive without Big Ben.

Latavius Murray works his way into the top 10 after an impressive outing in Week 3 (26 carries, 139 yards, one touchdown)—and given his Week 4 matchup against the Chicago Bears.

Devonta Freeman also makes the list after carrying the ball 30 times for 141 yards in Week 3. That type of volume puts him in the top 10.

Week 4’s Top 10 RBs

1. Matt Forte (CHI vs. OAK)
2. Arian Foster (HOU at ATL)
3. Le’Veon Bell (PIT vs. BAL)
4. Jamaal Charles (KC at CIN)
5. Marshawn Lynch (SEA vs. DET)
6. Eddie Lacy (GB at SF)
7. Adrian Peterson (MIN at DEN)
8. Latavius Murray (OAK at CHI)
9. DeMarco Murray (PHI at WAS)
10. Devonta Freeman (ATL vs. HOU)

Breakout RB of the Week: Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers

Gordon has had three decent games to begin his career, but he has yet to score a touchdown or make any sort of impact on the fantasy field.

That should change in Week 4 when the Chargers take on the Browns.

Cleveland has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season, according to ESPN.com, surrendering an average of 122 yards and one touchdown per game.

The Chargers have kept their rookie to around 15 carries per game. Gordon has carried the ball 14 times, 16 times and 14 times in his three games so far.

If San Diego increases Gordon’s carries to the 18-20 range for this contest, a 100-yard, one-touchdown outing could be in the cards.

RB Bust of the Week: Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins

Miller and the Miami Dolphins take on the New York Jets in Week 4, a top-10 team against running backs.

The Jets have given up just one rushing touchdown to running backs so far this season, and those backs have averaged only 3.2 yards per carry.

In comes Miller, who has failed to score while averaging 3.5 yards per carry. Additionally, his usage has been trending down. He carried the ball 13 times in Week 1, 10 times in Week 2 and just seven times in Week 3. Game flow has a lot to do with this—the Dolphins were down big to Buffalo in Week 3, for example—but it’s not the type of trend that Miller owners were hoping to see early in the season.

Miller will eventually turn in a great game, but things could get worse before they get better.

WRs: Fitzgerald Earns a Spot in the Top 10

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Larry Fitzgerald

Ben Roethlisberger’s injury places the Falcons' Julio Jones in the No. 1 spot among wideouts, but but Big Ben's top target, Antonio Brown, doesn’t fall far and still remains near the top of the rankings.

Calvin Johnson nearly falls out of the top 10 entirely given his tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, but Matthew Stafford’s propensity for throwing Johnson the ball (13 targets last week) gives Megatron a high enough floor that he can still be considered a WR1 in Week 4.

Larry Fitzgerald is also a WR1 option in Week 4. He doesn’t have the greatest matchup against the St. Louis Rams—who have only given up one touchdown to wideouts—but Fitzgerald is currently the centerpiece of an offense that has been rolling to start the season. The veteran wideout would be even higher on the list if he had a better matchup.

Week 4’s Top 10 WRs

1. Julio Jones (ATL vs. HOU)
2. Antonio Brown (PIT vs. BAL)
3. Demaryius Thomas (DEN vs. MIN)
4. Randall Cobb (GB at SF)
5. Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG at BUF)
6. A.J. Green (CIN vs. KC)
7. Brandon Marshall (NYJ at MIA)
8. Emmanuel Sanders (DEN vs. MIN)
9. Calvin Johnson (DET at SEA)
10. Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ vs. STL)

Breakout WR of the Week: Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders

We labeled Cooper the “bust of the week” in this space heading into Week 3, and he proved us wrong. We won’t be fooled again.

And while he's technically already broken out, Cooper is set for what would be his third big game in a row in his Week 4 matchup with the Chicago Bears.

The Bears have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season, per ESPN.com. Opposing wideouts have caught seven touchdowns against Chicago, second-most in the league. And that includes Week 3 when Chicago gave up no touchdowns to wide receivers (despite losing 26-0 to Seattle).

For his part, Cooper has scored only one touchdown, but he’s trending up in every other category. His receptions and yards per game have both increased over the first three contests of his career, and with the matchup against the Bears on tap, Cooper has a great shot at making it four straight efforts with an improved stat line.

WR Bust of the Week: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

It’s time to let Adams heal up before trusting him in fantasy again.

The second-year wideout left Monday night’s Week 3 game against the Kansas City Chiefs after tweaking his ankle again, and the Packers offense kept rolling without him. Adams now has nine catches for 92 yards through three games.

Randall Cobb had seven catches for 91 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 alone. James Jones also caught seven passes in Week 3 and put up 139 yards and a score. Adams is now clearly behind both.

What once looked like a safe floor for Adams has rapidly evaporated. It’s hard to know how much a bum ankle has played a role in his early-season woes, but fantasy owners should play this one safe and at least wait for Adams to be fully healthy before plugging him in lineups. Don't trust him in Week 4.

TEs: Graham Assumes Top Spot with Gronk on Bye

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Jimmy Graham

It has been an up-and-down season for Seattle’s Jimmy Graham—he caught six passes in Week 1 and seven passes in Week 3 (and scored in both games) but caught just one pass for 11 yards in Week 2—but the Seahawks seemed determined to get their big tight end the ball early and often in Week 3’s tilt against the Bears.

It appears Seattle wants to make Graham a priority, which means he remains a fixture near the top of the tight end rankings for now despite his troublesome Week 2.

Tyler Eifert put up a goose egg in Week 3, but the final stat line doesn’t tell the whole story. He had a touchdown called back thanks to the NFL’s ambiguous “catch” rules and saw several other key targets that unfortunately didn’t lead to fantasy points. The sky hasn’t fallen on Eifert’s fantasy value, and he remains an elite play in Week 4.

Bears tight end Martellus Bennett should have a field day against the Oakland Raiders, who have given up the most fantasy points (by far) to tight ends this season, per ESPN.com.

Week 4’s Top 10 TEs

1. Jimmy Graham (SEA vs. DET)
2. Travis Kelce (KC at CIN)
3. Greg Olsen (CAR at TB)
4. Martellus Bennett (CHI vs. OAK)
5. Tyler Eifert (CIN vs. KC)
6. Jason Witten (DAL at NO)
7. Jordan Reed (WAS vs. PHI)
8. Heath Miller (PIT vs. BAL)
9. Jordan Cameron (MIA vs. NYJ)
10. Jared Cook (STL at ARZ)

Breakout TE of the Week: Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams 

The Arizona Cardinals are actually one of the best teams in the league when it comes to defending tight ends—they have given up only the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far this season—but Cook is appealing nonetheless because he brings a high floor to the table.

It’s true that Cook caught only one pass for seven yards in Week 3, but don’t read too much into his latest performance. The Rams and Steelers only scored 18 points—combined—in Week 3. It just wasn’t an offense-friendly game.

But Cook caught five passes in both Weeks 1 and 2. In his best game of the season—Week 1—he turned five catches into 85 yards against the Seattle Seahawks. This indicates that an imposing defense shouldn’t immediately turn you away from Cook (although Seattle played without safety Kam Chancellor in that game).

As one of the primary threats in St. Louis’ offense, Cook has low-end TE1 appeal in Week 4. Additionally, the Rams could be playing catch-up against the Cardinals, which means Cook could be in for some garbage-time production as well.

TE Bust of the Week: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

Ebron plays against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. The Seahawks rank near the bottom in terms of points allowed to tight ends this season (which is usually a good thing for whatever tight end is playing against them), but that statistic is skewed because Chancellor was not in the lineup for the first two games of the season.

In Week 3—Chancellor’s first game back—the Seahawks gave up only five catches for 36 yards to opposing tight ends. He helped them hold Bennett to just four catches for 15 yards.

Ebron has had three straight good games to begin the season, but he’ll find receptions (and yardage) harder to come by when playing in Seattle in Week 4.

Kickers: McManus, Bailey Top Rankings

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Brandon McManus

Three of the top five kickers in Week 4 will play in domes, while the other top options (Brandon McManus and Adam Vinatieri) will be a part of offenses that are expected to move the ball well all day long.

Graham Gano makes his way into the top 10 as well given Carolina’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Panthers should routinely find themselves in scoring position in Week 4.

Week 4’s Top 10 Ks

1. Brandon McManus (DEN vs. MIN)
2. Dan Bailey (DAL at NO)
3. Greg Zuerlein (STL at ARZ)
4. Matt Bryant (ATL vs. HOU)
5. Adam Vinatieri (IND vs. JAX)
6. Mason Crosby (GB at SF)
7. Josh Scobee (PIT vs. BAL)
8. Steven Hauschka (SEA vs. DET)
9. Sebastian Janikowski (OAK at CHI)
10. Graham Gano (CAR at TB)

Breakout K of the Week: Josh Scobee, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Baltimore Ravens have given up the most fantasy points to opposing kickers so far this season (12.3), per ESPN.com. With Michael Vick now at quarterback for the Steelers, Pittsburgh’s offense could sputter when it gets near the end zone, which opens the door for Scobee to have a big impact.

K Bust of the Week: Kyle Brindza, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 3 was one for Brindza to forget. He hit an impressive 58-yarder early in the game, but he also missed three field-goal attempts and failed to convert an extra point as well.

It’s not looking like Week 4 will be Brindza’s time for a rebound. The Buccaneers play the Carolina Panthers, who have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing kickers, per ESPN.com.

Defense and Special Teams: Carolina, Indy Among Top D/STs in Week 4

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The Carolina Panthers top the Week 4 D/ST rankings thanks to their favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Seattle Seahawks always reside near the top of the rankings, and the team checks in at No. 2 this week as it faces the turnover-prone Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford has thrown five interceptions through three games.

The Green Bay Packers also make their way into the top 10 as they face Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers. Kaepernick has historically had success against the Packers, but it’s easy to like Green Bay’s D/ST this week after watching Kap begin Week 3 by throwing back-to-back interceptions that were returned for touchdowns by the Arizona Cardinals.

Week 4’s Top 10 D/STs

1. Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings
5. Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
6. Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
7. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants
8. New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
9. Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
10. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Breakout D/ST of the Week: Indianapolis Colts 

The Indianapolis Colts are playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4. When playing against Jacksonville, D/ST units have scored the (tied for) 10th-most fantasy points, per ESPN.com.

Additionally, the Colts defense has been on the rise. After scoring no points in Week 1, Indianapolis’ D/ST scored three points in Week 2 and nine points in Week 3.

Indianapolis is also trending up in the turnover department. The team failed to force a turnover in Week 1 but recorded one interception in Week 2 and snagged two interceptions in Week 3.

D/ST Bust of the Week: New York Giants 

The New York Giants play against the Bills in Week 4, and Buffalo’s offense is a lot more explosive than people give it credit for. Buffalo was able to score a flurry of points in short order against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and scored 41 points against the Dolphins in Week 3.

Bold Predictions: Tyrod Taylor Is a QB1 in Week 4

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Tyrod Taylor

Below are five bold fantasy football predictions for Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season.

• Tyrod Taylor puts up top-10 numbers. Taylor put up top-five numbers in Week 3 after throwing for three touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins, and he’s in line for another big game against the New York Giants in Week 4. Taylor will score three total touchdowns and cruise his way to top-10 numbers again. 

• Joseph Randle finishes outside the top 30 in fantasy points among running backs. This would mean that Randle would fail to put up RB1, RB2 or even flex numbers this week, which would be quite the drop-off for a player who put up the third-most points among all running backs in Week 3. However, as Matt Harmon of NFL.com noted, Randle’s Week 3 performance was wildly inconsistent and relied on huge plays. Harmon tweeted this nugget Monday morning: “Joseph Randle's yards gained on each of his 14 carries from yesterday: 28, 37, 20, 1, -1, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1, -1, -4, 2, -2.” Randle also lost a goal-line touchdown opportunity to Darren McFadden and saw 10 receptions go to Lance Dunbar. Randle will fall back to reality in a major way in Week 4.

• Zach Ertz puts up another dud, becomes droppable after Week 4. Through three games this season, Ertz has just eight catches for 93 yards and no touchdowns. The fact he only mustered two receptions for 30 yards in Week 3—a game in which the team’s starting running back didn’t play—doesn’t bode well for Ertz; it indicates that he’s simply not that important to the offense. Look for the trend to continue in Week 4 against a Redskins team that has yet to give up a score to a tight end. By this time next week, we’ll all be talking about dropping Ertz.

• Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead both finish in the top 15 among running backs. We went over why Gordon is set to break out in Week 4, but Woodhead is also in line for a big game. The Browns have given up 122 yards per game to opposing running backs so far this season, and there’s plenty to go around in the passing game as well. Last week, the Browns gave up 77 receiving yards to Oakland’s running backs. Gordon should go for more than 100 rushing yards and a score, while Woodhead will steal a few carries but do most of his damage through the air. When it’s all said and done, both Gordon and Woodhead will be top-15 running backs this week. 

• A.J. Green has an impressive encore, tops 150 yards and scores. Green caught 10 passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3, and while it’s unlikely he’ll put up such big numbers in back-to-back games, another great effort is in the cards. Green faces the Kansas City Chiefs, who were just torched by Randall Cobb and James Jones and gave up 230 yards and four touchdowns to the pair. Green doesn’t have Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, but we’ve seen enough receivers succeed against the Chiefs (Emmanuel Sanders caught two touchdowns against them in Week 2 and DeAndre Hopkins scored twice against them in Week 1) to think this bold prediction has a decent chance of coming true.