New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The end may be nearing for the New Orleans Saints' recent run with the combo of head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints are winless so far this season, and going back to last season they're just 3-7 straight up and 2-8 against the spread over their last 10 games. And things won't get any easier when New Orleans visits Carolina Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.3-22.2 Panthers

Why the Saints can cover the spread

It may be circle-the-wagons time for the Saints, who are off to an 0-2 start both SU and ATS this season, following last week's 26-19 loss at home to Tampa Bay. New Orleans rallied from down 23-7 to within four points at 23-19 but couldn't quite complete the comeback. On the day the Saints missed out on three extra points, and also missed a makeable field goal. That's six points right there.

New Orleans opened this season with a 31-19 loss at Arizona, but that was a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter before the Cardinals put it away.

The Saints are a team in transition, but they can still move the ball. If they can just get a few stops on defense (and fortunately, Carolina is not an offensive powerhouse), run the ball a little and avoid the turnovers, they could pull off the upset here.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

After finishing last season with a four-game winning streak, then winning their first two games this season, the Panthers are now 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS over their last six contests. Carolina opened this season with a 20-9 victory at Jacksonville, covering as a three-point road favorite, and last week held off Houston 24-17, covering as three-point home chalk. The Panthers outrushed the Texans 172-61 and won time of possession by a five-minute margin, and that's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Two weeks ago Carolina held the ball for over 34 minutes in the win over the Jaguars. So far this NFL betting season, teams that win the time-of-possession battles are 20-12 SU and 19-12-1 ATS.

The Panthers will do what they do best: run the ball, play tough defense and perhaps force a few mistakes. And New Orleans may be without Brees, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. Even if he plays, his ability to throw the deep ball will be diminished, and that sounds a dinner bell to this Carolina secondary.

Smart pick

The Panthers are just the better team at the moment, and the spread seems very reasonable. Carolina, minus the points, is the smart choice here.

Betting trends

The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

The total has gone over in 12 of the Saints’ last 14 games in September.

The Panthers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.