Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to recover from a devastating loss and beat the Green Bay Packers for the seventh time in eight meetings when they square off in the Week 3 Monday night matchup. The Chiefs are also 7-1 against the spread in those games versus the Packers and handed them their first loss in the last meeting as 11.5-point home underdogs following a 13-0 start in 2011.

Point spread: Packers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.9-18.7 Packers

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is coming off a stunning 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos last Thursday night, falling to their division rivals for the seventh straight time. The Chiefs have not beaten Peyton Manning since he arrived in Denver, but they have defeated Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay at their best, even if it was four years ago.

Alex Smith was the quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers during that time, as it was Kyle Orton who was under center for that big upset. But Smith too has enjoyed some success against Rodgers and the Packers, winning 30-22 at Lambeau Field with the 49ers as six-point underdogs in the 2012 season opener. Kansas City is also 5-1 straight up and 6-0 ATS in its last six September road games.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay is 5-1 SU and ATS in its past six games overall and brings a 10-game home winning streak into this matchup with the Chiefs. The Packers are also 7-2-1 versus the line in their last 10 home games and just beat the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau to snap a three-game losing streak against them, including the 2015 NFC Championship Game.

Rodgers looks like the reigning NFL MVP now that he is fully healthy again, and he will be out for revenge against the Chiefs for ending their shot at a perfect season in the last game between the teams. He will likely be studying film of how Manning attacked the Kansas City defense late in that game and should be able to do the same thing here.

Smart pick

The Chiefs do have some pass-rushers who can disrupt Rodgers to some degree, but so did the Seahawks, and they ultimately could not beat him at home. This game will come down to who executes better offensively, with Smith and running back Jamaal Charles both turning the ball over in critical spots at home against the Broncos. They cannot afford to do that again on the road, but Green Bay always seems to cause a few turnovers when needed at Lambeau, and they'll do just that to help cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six games on the road in September.

The Packers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.